Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis 2026
BriMind AI Score
ProprietaryScore based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.
BriMind 1-Year Price Target
An even blend of the BriMind AI model's DCF and momentum target ($174.57) and Wall Street's consensus target ($210.33).
AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →
About Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
Texas Roadhouse operates casual dining steakhouses known for high-volume restaurants, value-oriented steak pricing, and consistently strong guest traffic. Its operating philosophy emphasises food quality and hospitality over discounting, and it has deliberately held price increases below inflation at times to protect traffic — a strategy that sacrifices near-term margin for long-term share.
How Texas Roadhouse Makes Money
Revenue comes overwhelmingly from company-operated restaurants, with a small franchise component. High average unit volumes spread fixed restaurant costs across more sales, producing strong restaurant-level margins despite value pricing. Growth comes from new restaurant openings and same-store sales, with the company historically funding expansion internally while paying a dividend and repurchasing shares.
Texas Roadhouse Revenue & Profitability Breakdown
This chart shows how Texas Roadhouse's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.
Key Financial Metrics
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. trades at a trailing P/E of 30.54x, generates $235.9M in free cash flow, runs a debt/equity ratio of 68.84, and converts shareholder equity into profit at a 27.7% return on equity. For context: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged a company is; Return on Equity shows how efficiently it turns shareholder capital into profit.
Wall Street Analyst Consensus
Wall Street analysts covering Texas Roadhouse, Inc. currently haven't converged on a clear consensus rating, with a mean 12-month price target of $218.09 (+29.5% vs the current price). Analysts set these targets after researching a company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends — Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside, while Hold means fair value near the current price rather than a sell signal.
Intrinsic Value Estimates for TXRH
We use 3 valuation models to estimate TXRH's intrinsic value. Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals, independent of what the market prices it at today. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal.
Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.
Technical Price Signals
TXRH is currently in a short-term downtrend, trading below its 50-day average of $198.46 and below its 200-day average of $179.45. Moving averages smooth out day-to-day volatility to reveal the underlying trend — a Golden Cross (50MA crosses above 200MA) is a classic bullish signal, a Death Cross is bearish, though both are lagging indicators that confirm trends rather than predict them.
TXRH Investment Case: Bull vs Bear
TXRH's investment case breaks down into 4 bull points and 4 bear points below. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.
Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)
- Industry-leading average unit volumes spread fixed costs efficiently and produce strong restaurant margins despite value pricing.
- Deliberate pricing restraint has driven consistent traffic growth, which is rare in casual dining and the highest-quality form of growth.
- Value positioning gains share when consumers trade down from higher-priced dining.
- Consistent internal funding of expansion alongside dividends and buybacks reflects disciplined capital allocation.
Bear Case (Key Risks)
- Beef cost inflation is a direct margin headwind and cattle supply cycles suggest continued pressure.
- Holding prices below inflation protects traffic but compresses margins in the near term.
- Casual dining is a mature category with limited structural growth, so expansion depends on unit additions.
- Restaurant labour costs continue rising faster than general inflation in many markets.
What to Watch: TXRH Key Metrics
TXRH Stock — Frequently Asked Questions
Compare TXRH with Peers
More Consumer Discretionary Stock Analysis
In-depth reports on companies operating alongside TXRH — business models, bull and bear cases, and the metrics that matter.
Unlock the Full TXRH Analysis
Interactive price charts, real-time AI signals, advanced DCF models, portfolio tracking, earnings analysis, and side-by-side peer comparisons. Start your 14-day free trial — no credit card required.