HLI vs HTH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HLI (Houlihan Lokey) and HTH (Hilltop Holdings) are both financial services companies but in very different businesses — Houlihan Lokey is a leading independent advisory investment bank with a counter-cyclical restructuring practice and M&A advisory leadership, while Hilltop Holdings is a Texas diversified financial holding company combining banking, mortgage origination, and broker-dealer services under major shareholder Gerald Ford's oversight.
HLI vs HTH is premier independent investment bank with counter-cyclical restructuring buffer and pure-play advisory model (Houlihan Lokey's M&A, restructuring, and fairness opinion advisory, no proprietary risk, and talent-driven business model — navigating M&A cycle downturns while maintaining restructuring counter-cyclicality) versus Texas diversified financial holding company with banking, mortgage, and broker-dealer exposure (Hilltop Holdings' PlainsCapital Bank Texas community banking, PrimeLending mortgage origination, and Hilltop Securities — managing mortgage market rate sensitivity and Texas real estate concentration risk under Gerald Ford's alignment).
HLI holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HTH has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+14.58% vs -33.34%), though HLI has the better forward P/E setup (15.32x vs 15.59x for HTH). On fundamentals, HTH is growing revenue faster (5.20%), while HLI maintains the higher operating margin (18.39%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HLI (+14.93%) than for HTH (+8.19%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to investment banking advisory with a counter-cyclical restructuring buffer and pure-play advisory model free from proprietary risk and underwriting exposure
- Value Houlihan Lokey's independent status as creating a structural competitive advantage in conflict-sensitive transactions where clients specifically prefer independence from financial intermediaries with competing interests
- Believe Houlihan Lokey's M&A advisory leadership in the middle market and fairness opinion practice provides defensible competitive positioning that sustains above-average fee revenue through market cycles
- Want Texas diversified financial services exposure across community banking, mortgage origination, and broker-dealer services with alignment from major shareholder Gerald Ford's long-term investment track record
- Value PlainsCapital Bank's exposure to Texas's robust economic growth (technology, energy, financial services) as providing above-average banking revenue growth vs. banks in slower-growth geographies
- Accept Hilltop's mortgage origination cyclicality in exchange for the diversification of banking and broker-dealer operations that provide partial hedges against peak interest rate environments
| Metric | HLI | HTH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 44.6 | 34.4 |
| AI ranki | #735 | #1808 |
| Latest closei | $128.51 | $36.77 |
| 1M returni | -3.90% | -5.69% |
| 3M returni | -10.32% | -6.17% |
| 6M returni | -19.06% | +0.63% |
| 1Y returni | -33.34% | +14.58% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HLI | HTH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.82K (-31.8%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $12.4K (+24.0%) started 2021-10-18 | $13.54K (+35.4%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $52.32K (+423.2%) started 2016-10-17 | $22.89K (+128.9%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HLI | HTH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.33B | $2.22B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 22.45 | 14.43 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.32 | 15.59 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.62 | 2.83 |
| Analyst targeti | $153.50 | $42.00 |
| Target upsidei | +14.93% | +8.19% |
| Metric | HLI | HTH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -15.50% | 5.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -19.00% | 11.10% |
| EPS growthi | -19.00% | +11.10% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 18.39% | 15.80% |
| Profit margini | 16.08% | 12.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | 17.79% | 7.60% |
| Return on equityi | 17.79% | 7.60% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.11% | 2.12% |
| Payout ratioi | 41.95% | 28.15% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | 9 yrs |
| Betai | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| Debt/equityi | 20.85 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.66 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 1.66 | N/A |
Over the past year, HLI and HTH have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.33), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HLI | HTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -31.81% | +14.58% |
| CAGRi | -31.86% | +14.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.55% | 22.33% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.25 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.57 | 0.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.99% | 13.52% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.46% | 7.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.68% | 3.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.97% | 4.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.14% | 5.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.11% | 5.75% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +24.01% | +21.41% |
| CAGRi | +4.40% | +3.96% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.73% | 29.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.14 | 0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.20 | 0.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.02% | 34.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.57% | 7.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.78% | 13.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.78% | 15.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.14% | 9.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.72% | 12.79% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +423.25% | +89.60% |
| CAGRi | +18.01% | +6.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.18% | 33.66% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.84 | 0.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.02% | 59.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.57% | 7.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.65% | 18.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.70% | 20.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.14% | 26.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.72% | 37.97% |
| Category | HLI | HTH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | Hilltop Holdings Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Capital Markets | Financial Conglomerates |
| Core business | Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank specializing in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) advisory, financial restructuring, and financial and valuation advisory services. Houlihan Lokey advises companies, private equity sponsors, creditors, and boards of directors on strategic transactions across all industries. Houlihan Lokey is particularly recognized for its financial restructuring practice (advising companies in or approaching bankruptcy, and their creditors, on balance sheet recapitalization or sale transactions) — one of the most respected in the world — and its Fairness Opinion practice (providing independent valuation opinions to boards of directors for major transactions). Unlike bulge-bracket investment banks (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley), Houlihan Lokey does not underwrite securities (no equity or debt capital markets desks) — it is purely an advisory firm, focusing entirely on advice quality rather than capital provision. | Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based diversified financial holding company operating three primary businesses: PlainsCapital Bank (a community bank with approximately $14-17 billion in assets serving Texas markets), PrimeLending (a national mortgage origination company), and Hilltop Securities (a broker-dealer, investment bank, and financial advisory firm serving municipalities and institutional clients). Hilltop Holdings also has insurance operations. Hilltop is controlled by Dallas-based businessman and investor Gerald J. Ford (together with his business partners, major shareholders), who has a long track record in Texas banking. Hilltop's financial results are heavily influenced by the mortgage origination cycle (PrimeLending) and banking net interest margin (PlainsCapital Bank). |
| Investor focus | Investors track Houlihan Lokey's M&A advisory revenue (correlated with deal volume in its target markets), restructuring revenue (counter-cyclical — rises when M&A falls during economic stress), headcount and managing director productivity, and operating leverage. | Investors track Hilltop's mortgage origination volumes (heavily interest-rate dependent), PlainsCapital Bank's net interest margin, loan growth, credit quality, and overall profitability across all three segments. |
- Counter-cyclical restructuring practice provides revenue stability through M&A downturns — when M&A activity falls in recessions (as deal financing becomes difficult and seller valuations fall), Houlihan Lokey's restructuring advisory rises as more companies face financial stress; this natural hedge reduces revenue cyclicality vs. M&A-only advisors
- Pure-play advisory model with no proprietary trading or underwriting risk — Houlihan Lokey earns only advisory fees; it has no balance sheet risk from trading positions, underwriting exposures, or loans; this creates a cleaner, more predictable business model and eliminates the principal risk that affects bulge-bracket banks
- Independent status is a genuine competitive advantage in conflict-sensitive transactions — companies choosing advisors for fairness opinions, restructuring advice, and contested M&A prefer independent advisors without the conflicts created by banks that also make loans to, underwrite for, or hold equity positions in the clients or counterparties involved
- Texas market concentration provides exposure to one of the strongest state economies in the U.S. — Texas's diversified economy (energy, technology, financial services, real estate, healthcare) has driven strong population growth and banking demand; PlainsCapital Bank benefits from the robust Texas commercial and retail banking market
- Diversified revenue streams across banking, mortgage, and broker-dealer reduce single-business-line dependency — the combination of banking (interest rate spread), mortgage origination (fee income), and securities (trading and advisory) provides multiple revenue drivers that partially offset each other across economic cycles
- Gerald Ford's banking track record and long-term investor alignment — Gerald Ford has built multiple successful Texas banks over several decades; his alignment as a major shareholder creates management incentives oriented toward long-term value creation
- M&A market cyclicality creates revenue variability — when interest rates rise and deal financing becomes expensive, M&A volumes fall and HLI's advisory fees decline; 2022-2023 was a meaningful M&A market slowdown period for Houlihan Lokey
- Talent retention is the core business risk — investment banking is entirely people-driven; top managing directors (MDs) who have client relationships are the revenue engine; losing key MDs to competitors or private equity shops eliminates revenue from those client relationships
- Fee compression and competition from elite boutiques and bulge-brackets — Lazard, Evercore, PJT Partners, and other elite boutiques compete for the same transactions; bulge-bracket banks with balance sheet capacity can bundle advisory with debt/equity financing to win mandates
- Mortgage origination (PrimeLending) is extremely interest rate sensitive — rising interest rates dramatically reduce refinancing activity and slow purchase mortgage origination; PrimeLending's profitability is highly correlated with mortgage market volumes, which fell sharply as rates rose in 2022-2023
- Texas real estate exposure creates credit risk concentration — while Texas commercial real estate has been strong, any downturn in Texas property values or energy sector employment would negatively impact PlainsCapital Bank's loan book quality
- Hilltop Securities broker-dealer faces challenges in a competitive environment — the municipal securities and institutional fixed income broker-dealer market is highly competitive; margin compression from electronic trading and competition from large banks is a headwind for smaller broker-dealers
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