KEY vs RF: KeyCorp vs Regions Financial Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
KeyCorp is a northern regional bank with significant investment banking and capital markets operations, while Regions Financial is a Southeast-focused consumer and commercial bank benefiting from Sun Belt population growth. KeyCorp offers more fee revenue diversification; Regions offers better geographic growth tailwinds.
KEY vs RF is investment banking-enhanced regional bank versus a Sun Belt consumer and commercial bank — KeyCorp wins if capital markets normalize and fee income grows; Regions wins if Southeast economic growth drives loan and deposit market share.
KEY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KEY leads on both 1-year return (+12.46%) and forward P/E quality (10.25x vs 10.67x for RF), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, KEY is growing revenue faster (10.10%), while RF maintains the higher operating margin (39.31%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KEY (+18.76%) than for RF (+8.61%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want regional bank exposure with investment banking fee income diversification
- believe KeyBanc Capital Markets will benefit from a recovering deal environment
- are comfortable with KeyCorp's 2024 equity dilution as a near-term headwind that improves long-term
- prefer a broader 15-state footprint over the Southeast concentration of Regions
- prefer exposure to fast-growing Southeast markets with population and economic tailwinds
- value Regions' disciplined expense management and consistent dividend track record
- want lower commercial real estate office exposure relative to northern regional peers
- prefer a more traditional consumer and commercial banking model over capital markets
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 51.7 |
| AI ranki | #854 | #373 |
| Latest closei | $19.94 | $27.31 |
| 1M returni | -8.11% | -7.99% |
| 3M returni | -16.88% | -15.71% |
| 6M returni | -7.98% | -2.18% |
| 1Y returni | +12.46% | +10.39% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.88K (+18.8%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.7K (+17.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $12.6K (+25.9%) started 2021-10-18 | $16.36K (+63.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $35.09K (+250.9%) started 2016-10-17 | $52.74K (+427.4%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $23.38B | $25.84B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.81 | 12.33 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.25 | 10.67 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.01 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.21 | 4.39 |
| Analyst targeti | $26.02 | $32.94 |
| Target upsidei | +18.76% | +8.61% |
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.10% | 3.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 25.30% | 8.50% |
| EPS growthi | +25.30% | +8.50% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 34.71% | 39.31% |
| Profit margini | 27.54% | 30.84% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.33% | 11.87% |
| Return on equityi | 10.33% | 11.87% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.74% | 3.61% |
| Payout ratioi | 47.67% | 43.27% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, KEY and RF have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.87), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +18.83% | +16.96% |
| CAGRi | +18.87% | +16.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.49% | 23.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.68 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.57% | 19.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.88% | 15.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.07% | 6.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.12% | 8.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.36% | 5.21% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.82% | 8.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +3.55% | +40.00% |
| CAGRi | +0.70% | +6.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.58% | 30.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.13 | 0.32 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.23% | 40.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.88% | 15.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 27.83% | 13.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.45% | 15.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.33% | 12.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 37.30% | 18.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +130.08% | +270.12% |
| CAGRi | +8.69% | +13.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.64% | 35.64% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.30 | 0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.23% | 60.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.88% | 15.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.94% | 13.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.67% | 17.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.33% | 19.34% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 37.30% | 31.50% |
| Category | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | KeyCorp | Regions Financial Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | Banks - Regional |
| Core business | Regional bank headquartered in Cleveland with operations across 15 states. KeyCorp has a significant investment banking and capital markets business (KeyBanc Capital Markets) alongside consumer and commercial banking. | Regional bank headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama primarily serving the Southeast and Midwest through consumer, commercial, and corporate banking with a strong mortgage and wealth management presence. |
| Investor focus | Capital markets and investment banking fee revenue, NIM trajectory, expense discipline, credit quality in commercial real estate, and capital recovery after dilutive equity issuance in 2024. | Southeast deposit market share growth, NIM expansion in a high-rate environment, expense discipline, credit quality across consumer and commercial portfolios, and capital return trajectory. |
- KeyBanc Capital Markets provides fee income that reduces dependence on interest rate-sensitive lending revenue
- Broad 15-state franchise spans multiple regions, providing more geographic diversification than single-state banks
- Scotiabank investment in 2024 provides capital validation and potential partnership opportunities
- Strong presence in fast-growing Southeastern markets (Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia) with population and economic tailwinds
- Consistent dividend payer with strong capital ratios and a track record of disciplined expense management
- Relatively lower commercial real estate office exposure compared to northern regional peers
- KeyCorp issued significant equity at a dilutive price in 2024, weighing on EPS and tangible book value recovery
- Investment banking fee revenue is cyclical and depends on deal market conditions
- Commercial real estate concentration in office and retail creates credit risk in a challenging CRE environment
- Southeast consumer credit quality bears monitoring as mortgage rates remain high and borrowers stress
- Regions' fee revenue is more limited than KeyCorp's capital markets business
- Mortgage banking revenue depends heavily on refinancing volumes which are suppressed in a high-rate environment
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