KEY vs RF: KeyCorp vs Regions Financial Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
KeyCorp is a northern regional bank with significant investment banking and capital markets operations, while Regions Financial is a Southeast-focused consumer and commercial bank benefiting from Sun Belt population growth. KeyCorp offers more fee revenue diversification; Regions offers better geographic growth tailwinds.
KEY vs RF is investment banking-enhanced regional bank versus a Sun Belt consumer and commercial bank — KeyCorp wins if capital markets normalize and fee income grows; Regions wins if Southeast economic growth drives loan and deposit market share.
KEY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KEY leads on both 1-year return (+26.68%) and forward P/E quality (10.84x vs 10.88x for RF), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, KEY is growing revenue faster (11.80%), while RF maintains the higher operating margin (40.07%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KEY (+10.96%) than for RF (+2.26%).
- →want regional bank exposure with investment banking fee income diversification
- →believe KeyBanc Capital Markets will benefit from a recovering deal environment
- →are comfortable with KeyCorp's 2024 equity dilution as a near-term headwind that improves long-term
- →prefer a broader 15-state footprint over the Southeast concentration of Regions
- →prefer exposure to fast-growing Southeast markets with population and economic tailwinds
- →value Regions' disciplined expense management and consistent dividend track record
- →want lower commercial real estate office exposure relative to northern regional peers
- →prefer a more traditional consumer and commercial banking model over capital markets
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 51.8 | 49.2 |
| AI rank | #402 | #555 |
| Latest close | $23.22 | $31.07 |
| 1M return | +2.29% | +6.15% |
| 6M return | +9.58% | +8.94% |
| 1Y return | +26.68% | +25.84% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.65K (+26.5%) started 2025-07-14 | $12.58K (+25.8%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $17.24K (+72.4%) started 2021-07-14 | $21.94K (+119.4%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $43.61K (+336.1%) started 2016-07-14 | $67.18K (+571.8%) started 2016-07-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $25.15B | $26.47B |
| Trailing P/E | 14.29 | 12.87 |
| Forward P/E | 10.84 | 10.88 |
| Price/Sales | 4.01 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 5.99 | 4.29 |
| Analyst target | $25.85 | $31.72 |
| Target upside | +10.96% | +2.26% |
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 11.80% | 7.30% |
| Earnings growth | 33.30% | 21.60% |
| EPS growth | +33.30% | +21.60% |
| FCF margin | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margin | 35.78% | 40.07% |
| Profit margin | 27.02% | 31.00% |
| ROIC proxy | 9.98% | 11.89% |
| Return on equity | 9.98% | 11.89% |
| Dividend yield | 3.55% | 3.47% |
| Beta | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratio | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratio | N/A | N/A |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +26.47% | +25.79% |
| CAGR | +26.59% | +25.91% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.92 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdown | 18.57% | 19.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.39% | 5.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 7.70% | 8.72% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +40.22% | +85.92% |
| CAGR | +7.00% | +13.21% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.23% | 40.99% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.33% | 12.38% | |
| Max wkly drop | 37.30% | 18.38% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +182.96% | +367.27% |
| CAGR | +10.96% | +16.67% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.35 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.23% | 60.73% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.33% | 19.34% | |
| Max wkly drop | 37.30% | 31.50% |
| Category | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | KeyCorp | Regions Financial Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | N/A |
| Core business | Regional bank headquartered in Cleveland with operations across 15 states. KeyCorp has a significant investment banking and capital markets business (KeyBanc Capital Markets) alongside consumer and commercial banking. | Regional bank headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama primarily serving the Southeast and Midwest through consumer, commercial, and corporate banking with a strong mortgage and wealth management presence. |
| Investor focus | Capital markets and investment banking fee revenue, NIM trajectory, expense discipline, credit quality in commercial real estate, and capital recovery after dilutive equity issuance in 2024. | Southeast deposit market share growth, NIM expansion in a high-rate environment, expense discipline, credit quality across consumer and commercial portfolios, and capital return trajectory. |
- →KeyBanc Capital Markets provides fee income that reduces dependence on interest rate-sensitive lending revenue
- →Broad 15-state franchise spans multiple regions, providing more geographic diversification than single-state banks
- →Scotiabank investment in 2024 provides capital validation and potential partnership opportunities
- →Strong presence in fast-growing Southeastern markets (Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia) with population and economic tailwinds
- →Consistent dividend payer with strong capital ratios and a track record of disciplined expense management
- →Relatively lower commercial real estate office exposure compared to northern regional peers
- →KeyCorp issued significant equity at a dilutive price in 2024, weighing on EPS and tangible book value recovery
- →Investment banking fee revenue is cyclical and depends on deal market conditions
- →Commercial real estate concentration in office and retail creates credit risk in a challenging CRE environment
- →Southeast consumer credit quality bears monitoring as mortgage rates remain high and borrowers stress
- →Regions' fee revenue is more limited than KeyCorp's capital markets business
- →Mortgage banking revenue depends heavily on refinancing volumes which are suppressed in a high-rate environment
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