KEY vs RF: KeyCorp vs Regions Financial Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
KeyCorp is a northern regional bank with significant investment banking and capital markets operations, while Regions Financial is a Southeast-focused consumer and commercial bank benefiting from Sun Belt population growth. KeyCorp offers more fee revenue diversification; Regions offers better geographic growth tailwinds.
KEY vs RF is investment banking-enhanced regional bank versus a Sun Belt consumer and commercial bank — KeyCorp wins if capital markets normalize and fee income grows; Regions wins if Southeast economic growth drives loan and deposit market share.
KEY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KEY leads on both 1-year return (+13.23%) and forward P/E quality (10.24x vs 10.70x for RF), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, KEY is growing revenue faster (10.10%), while RF maintains the higher operating margin (39.31%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KEY (+18.98%) than for RF (+8.29%).
- want regional bank exposure with investment banking fee income diversification
- believe KeyBanc Capital Markets will benefit from a recovering deal environment
- are comfortable with KeyCorp's 2024 equity dilution as a near-term headwind that improves long-term
- prefer a broader 15-state footprint over the Southeast concentration of Regions
- prefer exposure to fast-growing Southeast markets with population and economic tailwinds
- value Regions' disciplined expense management and consistent dividend track record
- want lower commercial real estate office exposure relative to northern regional peers
- prefer a more traditional consumer and commercial banking model over capital markets
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 41.9 | 51.2 |
| AI rank | #887 | #385 |
| Latest close | $21.91 | $30.33 |
| 1M return | -1.22% | -1.97% |
| 6M return | +5.64% | +8.98% |
| 1Y return | +13.23% | +10.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.32K (+13.2%) started 2025-08-29 | $11.07K (+10.7%) started 2025-08-29 |
| 5Y ago | $15.98K (+59.8%) started 2021-08-30 | $20.54K (+105.4%) started 2021-08-30 |
| 10Y ago | $38.65K (+286.5%) started 2016-08-29 | $60.39K (+503.9%) started 2016-08-29 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $23.34B | $25.91B |
| Trailing P/E | 12.79 | 12.36 |
| Forward P/E | 10.24 | 10.70 |
| Price/Sales | 4.01 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| Analyst target | $26.02 | $32.93 |
| Target upside | +18.98% | +8.29% |
| Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 10.10% | 3.40% |
| Earnings growth | 25.30% | 8.50% |
| EPS growth | +25.30% | +8.50% |
| FCF margin | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margin | 34.71% | 39.31% |
| Profit margin | 27.54% | 30.84% |
| ROIC proxy | 10.33% | 11.87% |
| Return on equity | 10.33% | 11.87% |
| Dividend yield | 3.75% | 3.60% |
| Beta | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratio | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratio | N/A | N/A |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +13.17% | +10.73% |
| CAGR | +13.22% | +10.77% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.46 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdown | 18.57% | 19.22% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.39% | 5.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 7.70% | 8.72% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +29.97% | +74.00% |
| CAGR | +5.39% | +11.72% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.21 | 0.37 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.23% | 40.99% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.33% | 12.38% | |
| Max wkly drop | 37.30% | 18.38% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +153.42% | +320.06% |
| CAGR | +9.75% | +15.44% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.23% | 60.73% | |
| Max daily drop | 27.33% | 19.34% | |
| Max wkly drop | 37.30% | 31.50% |
| Category | KEY | RF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | KeyCorp | Regions Financial Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | N/A |
| Core business | Regional bank headquartered in Cleveland with operations across 15 states. KeyCorp has a significant investment banking and capital markets business (KeyBanc Capital Markets) alongside consumer and commercial banking. | Regional bank headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama primarily serving the Southeast and Midwest through consumer, commercial, and corporate banking with a strong mortgage and wealth management presence. |
| Investor focus | Capital markets and investment banking fee revenue, NIM trajectory, expense discipline, credit quality in commercial real estate, and capital recovery after dilutive equity issuance in 2024. | Southeast deposit market share growth, NIM expansion in a high-rate environment, expense discipline, credit quality across consumer and commercial portfolios, and capital return trajectory. |
- KeyBanc Capital Markets provides fee income that reduces dependence on interest rate-sensitive lending revenue
- Broad 15-state franchise spans multiple regions, providing more geographic diversification than single-state banks
- Scotiabank investment in 2024 provides capital validation and potential partnership opportunities
- Strong presence in fast-growing Southeastern markets (Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia) with population and economic tailwinds
- Consistent dividend payer with strong capital ratios and a track record of disciplined expense management
- Relatively lower commercial real estate office exposure compared to northern regional peers
- KeyCorp issued significant equity at a dilutive price in 2024, weighing on EPS and tangible book value recovery
- Investment banking fee revenue is cyclical and depends on deal market conditions
- Commercial real estate concentration in office and retail creates credit risk in a challenging CRE environment
- Southeast consumer credit quality bears monitoring as mortgage rates remain high and borrowers stress
- Regions' fee revenue is more limited than KeyCorp's capital markets business
- Mortgage banking revenue depends heavily on refinancing volumes which are suppressed in a high-rate environment
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