MODV vs APH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MODV (ModivCare) and APH (Amphenol) are unrelated by industry — ModivCare is a Medicaid managed care company in non-emergency medical transportation with an SDOH mission, while Amphenol is a global electronic connector manufacturing powerhouse benefiting from AI infrastructure spending. MODV is a leveraged healthcare services play on Medicaid transportation management; APH is a high-quality compounder in electronic components with secular growth from data centers, EVs, and military.
MODV vs APH is Medicaid NEMT managed care with social determinants of health policy tailwinds and high leverage (ModivCare's dominant position managing 90M+ medical trips for Medicaid members, medical cost ratio risk, and debt burden from acquisition growth) versus diversified global connector manufacturer benefiting from AI infrastructure and defense spending (Amphenol's decentralized 70+ business unit model, high-speed data center connector growth, and prolific acquisition compounder strategy) — leveraged healthcare services versus compounding industrial technology leader.
MODV and APH are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe ModivCare's dominant NEMT position and scale advantages make it difficult for Medicaid plans to replace, creating durable contract renewals
- See SDOH policy momentum driving Medicaid plan investment in transportation as preventive care, expanding ModivCare's addressable market
- Are willing to accept the NEMT medical cost ratio risk and high leverage in exchange for a below-market valuation on the dominant managed transportation services platform
- Want exposure to AI data center infrastructure spending through a high-quality connector manufacturer with decades of compounding track record
- Value Amphenol's decentralized operating model as a sustainable competitive advantage creating faster innovation and higher management accountability than centralized competitors
- Seek a consistent earnings compounder growing through economic cycles via organic growth, operating leverage, and disciplined acquisitions
| Metric | MODV | APH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | N/A | 53.0 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #294 |
| Latest closei | N/A | $81.49 |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MODV | APH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | N/A | $6.4K (-36.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | N/A | $22.56K (+125.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | N/A | $61.15K (+511.5%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MODV | APH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | N/A | $206.94B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 41.96 |
| Forward P/Ei | N/A | 25.63 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.00 | 6.73 |
| EV/Revenuei | N/A | 7.60 |
| Analyst targeti | N/A | $99.26 |
| Target upsidei | N/A | +18.28% |
| Metric | MODV | APH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | N/A | 55.00% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 59.30% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +59.30% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +13.16% |
| Operating margini | N/A | 29.78% |
| Profit margini | N/A | 17.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 38.12% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 38.12% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.62% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 22.88% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | -0.69 | 1.24 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 120.42 |
| Current ratioi | N/A | 1.89 |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | 1.29 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MODV | APH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | N/A | -36.02% |
| CAGRi | N/A | -36.06% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 68.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | -0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | -0.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 56.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 53.78% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 15.49% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 22.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 50.95% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 50.39% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | N/A | +117.77% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +16.86% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 39.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 56.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 53.78% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 9.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 13.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 50.95% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 50.39% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | N/A | +461.22% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +18.83% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 32.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 56.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 53.78% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 7.19% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 11.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 50.95% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 50.39% |
| Category | MODV | APH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ModivCare Inc. | Amphenol Corporation |
| Sector | Healthcare - Managed Care / Non-Emergency Medical Transportation | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | Electronic Components |
| Core business | ModivCare is a tech-enabled managed care company focused on non-medical services addressing social determinants of health for Medicaid and Medicare Advantage populations. Three segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT) — manages transportation benefits for Medicaid members connecting patients with rides to medical appointments through a nationwide driver network (approximately 90M+ NEMT trips annually for 30M+ members); Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM) — provides devices and software for monitoring chronic disease patients remotely; Personal Care Services — homecare worker staffing for Medicaid members needing assistance with daily activities. Medicaid and Medicare Advantage plans pay ModivCare fixed per-member-per-month (PMPM) fees to manage transportation benefits. | Amphenol is one of the world's largest manufacturers of electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors and interconnect systems. Applications span military and aerospace (ruggedized connectors for missiles, aircraft, naval systems), automotive (EV charging connectors, vehicle body and engine management connectors), data communications (high-speed connectors for data center servers, networking switches, AI accelerator modules), industrial (factory automation, sensors, energy infrastructure), mobile devices, and broadband. Amphenol is a global manufacturer with a highly decentralized structure running over 70 independent business units. |
| Investor focus | Investors track ModivCare's medical cost ratio (actual transportation spend versus PMPM fees received), NEMT contract wins and renewals, RPM subscriber growth, and free cash flow generation. | Investors track Amphenol's organic revenue growth by segment (especially IT datacom and military), operating margins, acquisition pipeline, and exposure to AI infrastructure spending (high-speed connectors for AI data centers). |
- Dominant managed NEMT platform with scale advantages — ModivCare is the largest U.S. NEMT managed care company; managing 90M+ trips annually provides transportation cost data, driver network density, and Medicaid plan relationships competitors cannot replicate
- Social determinants of health (SDOH) policy tailwind — healthcare policy increasingly emphasizes addressing non-clinical needs (transportation, housing) affecting outcomes; NEMT prevents missed appointments that worsen chronic disease and increase costly ER visits
- RPM and personal care diversification reduces NEMT concentration — adding remote monitoring and personal care services creates multiple revenue streams within the same Medicaid population ModivCare already serves
- Decentralized business unit model drives superior management accountability and fast decision-making — 70+ independently managed P&L centers operate like entrepreneurial small companies with Amphenol resources; this model outperforms centralized connector manufacturers in innovation speed
- Diversification across military, automotive, datacom, industrial, and mobile creates resilience — segment diversification smooths the revenue cycle versus single-segment makers
- AI infrastructure build-out is a powerful growth driver — AI data centers require enormous quantities of high-speed connectors for GPU-to-GPU interconnects, PCIe backplanes, power delivery, and networking; Amphenol's high-speed data center connectors are growing substantially faster than the overall business
- NEMT medical cost ratio risk — if actual trip costs exceed contracted PMPM fees, ModivCare absorbs the loss; fuel price spikes, driver shortages, or higher trip volumes compress margins
- Medicaid redetermination cycles create membership volatility — when members lose Medicaid eligibility, ModivCare loses PMPM revenue; large membership fluctuations create revenue uncertainty
- High debt load from acquisitions constrains flexibility — ModivCare executed several acquisitions building scale; resulting debt requires FCF allocation to debt reduction, limiting strategic investments
- Automotive connector exposure creates cyclical risk — auto production volumes are cyclical; EV transition creates short-term uncertainty as OEMs navigate model transitions
- Competition from TE Connectivity, Molex, and Samtec in key markets — share is maintained through product innovation and acquisitions but faces motivated competitors
- Acquisition pace creates integration complexity — Amphenol acquires 5-15 connector companies per year; managing quality and culture across dozens of simultaneous acquisitions requires consistent execution
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