MU vs STX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MU and STX both sell into AI-driven data centre buildouts but with different products and cycle characteristics. Micron makes memory, including the high-bandwidth memory that sits directly beside AI accelerators, in a very capital-intensive and famously cyclical industry. Seagate makes high-capacity hard drives for storing the data those systems generate, in a consolidated two-player market with lower capital needs and more cash returned to shareholders.
Use this MU vs STX comparison to separate compute-adjacent demand from data-gravity demand. Micron's earnings are tied to memory pricing, which can move violently in both directions. Seagate's demand grows with the total volume of stored data, which is steadier, but it carries the longer-term question of when flash economics finally encroach on bulk storage.
MU holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MU leads on both 1-year return (+569.27%) and forward P/E quality (6.02x vs 14.99x for STX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. MU leads on both revenue growth (345.70%) and operating margin (80.37%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MU (+62.23%) than for STX (+35.58%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct exposure to high-bandwidth memory as an AI accelerator bottleneck
- Are comfortable timing a cyclical commodity industry with large earnings swings
- Accept heavy capital expenditure as the price of staying competitive
- Prefer upside leverage over dividend income
- Want exposure to growth in stored data rather than to memory pricing cycles
- Value a consolidated two-supplier market and disciplined pricing
- Prefer meaningful cash return through dividends and buybacks
- Accept long-term flash substitution risk as a slow rather than sudden threat
| Metric | MU | STX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 96.0 | 84.3 |
| AI ranki | #1 | #5 |
| Latest closei | $1,082.28 | $916.83 |
| 1M returni | +15.33% | +8.32% |
| 6M returni | +202.97% | +141.23% |
| 1Y returni | +569.27% | +309.85% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MU | STX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $69.01K (+590.1%) started 2025-09-25 | $41.7K (+317.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $150.68K (+1406.8%) started 2021-09-27 | $137.21K (+1272.1%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $652.54K (+6425.4%) started 2016-09-26 | $576.93K (+5669.3%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MU | STX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.05T | $188.06B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 21.10 | 59.52 |
| Forward P/Ei | 6.02 | 14.99 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.87 | 3.16 |
| EV/Revenuei | 11.45 | 15.60 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,513.41 | $1,125.00 |
| Target upsidei | +62.23% | +35.58% |
| Metric | MU | STX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 345.70% | 48.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 1368.50% | 148.80% |
| EPS growthi | +1368.50% | +148.80% |
| FCF margini | +8.46% | +15.94% |
| Operating margini | 80.37% | 43.07% |
| Profit margini | 55.91% | 26.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | 66.64% | 371.53% |
| Return on equityi | 66.64% | 371.53% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.06% | 0.36% |
| Payout ratioi | 1.12% | 21.15% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.21 | 2.10 |
| Debt/equityi | 6.33 | 179.88 |
| Current ratioi | 3.42 | 1.67 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.93 | 1.07 |
Over the past year, MU and STX have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.66), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MU | STX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +590.10% | +317.03% |
| CAGRi | +592.00% | +317.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 81.36% | 75.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.74 | 2.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 4.64 | 3.63 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.10% | 31.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.82% | 16.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.30% | 10.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.25% | 13.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.25% | 12.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.98% | 20.12% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +1372.54% | +1098.35% |
| CAGRi | +71.34% | +64.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.82% | 48.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.15 | 1.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.80 | 1.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.63% | 56.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.82% | 16.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.28% | 20.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.79% | 26.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.18% | 16.36% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.73% | 21.42% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +6277.04% | +3522.45% |
| CAGRi | +51.54% | +43.20% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.65% | 43.28% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.98 | 0.94 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.48 | 1.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.63% | 56.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.82% | 16.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.51% | 17.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.10% | 22.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.82% | 16.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.76% | 21.42% |
| Category | MU | STX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Micron Technology, Inc. | Seagate Technology Holdings plc |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Computer Hardware |
| Core business | One of a small number of global producers of DRAM and NAND flash memory, including high-bandwidth memory used alongside AI accelerators. Manufactures its own wafers, making it highly capital intensive. | Manufacturer of hard disk drives, with the bulk of revenue from high-capacity nearline drives sold to cloud and enterprise data centres. Its HAMR recording technology is the route to substantially higher capacity per drive. |
| Investor focus | High-bandwidth memory capacity sold out and pricing, DRAM and NAND supply discipline, capital expenditure intensity, and inventory levels across customers. | Nearline drive demand from hyperscalers, HAMR ramp and yields, exabyte shipments and pricing per terabyte, and cash returned to shareholders. |
- High-bandwidth memory is a genuine bottleneck for AI accelerators, commanding strong pricing and long lead commitments
- Only three companies supply meaningful DRAM volume, an unusually concentrated industry structure
- Memory pricing has enormous operating leverage, so upcycles produce dramatic earnings swings upward
- Hard drives remain far cheaper per terabyte than flash for bulk data, and AI is generating enormous data volumes to store
- Effectively a two-supplier industry, which supports far better pricing discipline than in the past
- Less capital intensive than memory fabrication, leaving more cash available for dividends and buybacks
- Memory remains a commodity cycle: pricing collapses when supply outruns demand
- Very heavy capital expenditure is required just to stay technologically current
- Capacity added for AI memory could eventually pressure conventional DRAM pricing
- Long-term substitution risk from flash as cost per terabyte falls
- Demand is concentrated among a handful of hyperscale buyers with strong leverage
- HAMR transition carries yield and qualification risk on a technically difficult recording method
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