TSM vs UMC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TSMC and UMC are both Taiwanese semiconductor foundries, but TSMC is the dominant global leader in leading-edge process nodes powering AI GPUs and premium smartphones, while UMC is a smaller foundry focused on mature and specialty process nodes serving diversified automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics markets.
TSMC offers dominant exposure to the leading-edge AI chip manufacturing boom with a very high barrier to entry, while UMC offers more diversified, lower capital intensity exposure to mature semiconductor demand across broader end markets. Consider whether you prefer TSMC's leading-edge AI exposure or UMC's more diversified, less capital-intensive mature node business.
TSM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. UMC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+235.67% vs +61.09%), though TSM has the better forward P/E setup (19.05x vs 25.66x for UMC). TSM leads on both revenue growth (36.00%) and operating margin (60.34%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TSM (+32.21%) than for UMC (-17.92%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want dominant exposure to the leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing powering AI GPUs and premium smartphones
- Believe TSMC's technology leadership and scale create a durable, high barrier-to-entry competitive moat
- Are comfortable with the geopolitical risk associated with concentrated manufacturing in Taiwan
- Value direct exposure to surging AI accelerator and GPU demand from customers like NVIDIA
- Want diversified exposure to mature and specialty semiconductor process nodes across automotive, industrial, and consumer markets
- Prefer a less capital-intensive foundry business model than leading-edge manufacturing
- Are comfortable not participating in the leading-edge AI chip manufacturing growth story
- Value diversification away from reliance on any single technology trend or customer concentration
| Metric | TSM | UMC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 78.6 | 60.8 |
| AI ranki | #17 | #166 |
| Latest closei | $417.72 | $22.53 |
| 1M returni | -2.81% | +15.36% |
| 6M returni | +23.63% | +146.52% |
| 1Y returni | +61.09% | +235.67% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSM | UMC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.33K (+63.3%) started 2025-09-16 | $34.13K (+241.3%) started 2025-09-16 |
| 5Y ago | $40.89K (+308.9%) started 2021-09-16 | $32.91K (+229.1%) started 2021-09-16 |
| 10Y ago | $235.8K (+2258.0%) started 2016-09-16 | $349.17K (+3391.7%) started 2016-09-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSM | UMC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.17T | $56.5B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.06 | 20.86 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.05 | 25.66 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.36 | -0.11 |
| Analyst targeti | $552.26 | $18.49 |
| Target upsidei | +32.21% | -17.92% |
| Metric | TSM | UMC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 36.00% | 17.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 77.40% | 374.60% |
| EPS growthi | +77.40% | +374.60% |
| FCF margini | +16.46% | +14.71% |
| Operating margini | 60.34% | 21.71% |
| Profit margini | 49.92% | 33.29% |
| ROIC proxyi | 39.97% | 21.33% |
| Return on equityi | 39.97% | 21.33% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.97% | 1.78% |
| Payout ratioi | 25.74% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | 1 yr |
| Betai | 1.25 | 1.70 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.50 | 14.29 |
| Current ratioi | 2.46 | 2.17 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.13 | 1.77 |
Over the past year, TSM and UMC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSM | UMC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +61.09% | +235.67% |
| CAGRi | +61.14% | +235.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.36% | 62.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.28 | 2.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.95 | 3.86 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.55% | 37.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.30% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.81% | 11.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.64% | 16.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.98% | 10.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.05% | 21.07% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +274.63% | +145.77% |
| CAGRi | +30.24% | +19.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.40% | 42.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.16 | 0.84 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 54.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.30% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.74% | 26.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.32% | 28.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.33% | 10.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.17% | 21.07% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1722.31% | +1875.39% |
| CAGRi | +33.68% | +34.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.81% | 41.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.88 | 0.82 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.33 | 1.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 54.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.30% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.88% | 19.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.07% | 23.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.03% | 10.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.17% | 21.07% |
| Category | TSM | UMC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | United Microelectronics Corporation |
| Sector | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | The world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing leading-edge chips for customers including NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD, with a dominant position in the most advanced process nodes used for AI GPUs and premium smartphones. | A semiconductor foundry focused primarily on mature and specialty process nodes, serving a broad range of customers across automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer electronics applications rather than leading-edge AI chips. |
| Investor focus | Leading-edge node revenue growth (particularly AI-related GPU and accelerator demand), capital expenditure trends, and geopolitical risk related to Taiwan. | Mature node capacity utilization rates, specialty technology differentiation, and demand trends across automotive, industrial, and consumer end markets. |
- Dominant, near-monopoly position in manufacturing the most advanced semiconductor process nodes globally
- Direct beneficiary of surging AI GPU and accelerator demand from customers like NVIDIA
- Massive scale and technology leadership create a very high barrier to entry for competitors
- Focused specialization in mature and specialty process nodes serves a diversified base of end markets beyond AI
- Lower capital intensity than leading-edge foundries, as mature node equipment requires less continuous reinvestment
- Diversified customer base across automotive, industrial, and communications reduces reliance on any single technology trend
- Extremely capital-intensive business requiring continuous massive investment to maintain leading-edge technology leadership
- Concentrated manufacturing base in Taiwan creates significant geopolitical risk given regional tensions
- Customer concentration in a relatively small number of large technology companies
- Does not participate in the leading-edge AI chip manufacturing boom that has driven TSMC's growth
- Mature node capacity faces pricing competition from other foundries also serving similar markets
- Smaller scale than TSMC limits its ability to invest in next-generation manufacturing technology
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