AMD vs NVDA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NVDA remains the dominant leader in AI accelerator chips with an entrenched CUDA software ecosystem moat, while AMD is the primary credible challenger, gaining traction particularly in AI inference workloads where its Instinct GPUs offer competitive cost-performance. Both are central beneficiaries of the broader AI infrastructure buildout, though Nvidia retains substantially larger market share.
AMD vs NVDA captures the core competitive dynamic in AI accelerator chips: Nvidia's dominant, ecosystem-protected market leadership versus AMD's improving challenger position, particularly in the cost-sensitive AI inference market.
NVDA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AMD has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+254.50% vs +26.12%), though NVDA has the better forward P/E setup (14.21x vs 33.28x for AMD). NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for AMD (+19.17%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe AMD can capture meaningful AI inference market share as a lower-cost alternative
- See value in AMD's improving EPYC server CPU market share momentum
- Prefer relatively lower valuation exposure to the AI chip theme
- Want exposure to the dominant leader in AI training and inference chips
- Value the durability of Nvidia's CUDA software ecosystem moat
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for sustained AI infrastructure leadership
| Metric | AMD | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 86.1 | 87.4 |
| AI ranki | #4 | #3 |
| Latest closei | $559.82 | $222.27 |
| 1M returni | +20.02% | +2.16% |
| 6M returni | +172.72% | +24.48% |
| 1Y returni | +254.50% | +26.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMD | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $35.45K (+254.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.61K (+26.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $55.13K (+451.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $105.67K (+956.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $908.8K (+8988.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $1.44M (+14328.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMD | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $842.57B | $5.25T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 131.67 | 27.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 33.28 | 14.21 |
| Price/Salesi | 24.30 | 23.66 |
| EV/Revenuei | 20.18 | 17.23 |
| Analyst targeti | $615.07 | $323.42 |
| Target upsidei | +19.17% | +48.66% |
| Metric | AMD | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 50.10% | 105.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 159.50% | 127.80% |
| EPS growthi | +159.50% | +127.80% |
| FCF margini | +21.41% | +13.80% |
| Operating margini | 17.25% | 66.24% |
| Profit margini | 15.58% | 63.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.20% | 117.21% |
| Return on equityi | 10.20% | 117.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.46% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 3.54% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.48 | 2.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 6.36 | 16.97 |
| Current ratioi | 2.61 | 4.59 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.69 | 2.92 |
Over the past year, AMD and NVDA have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.46), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMD | NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +254.50% | +26.12% |
| CAGRi | +254.80% | +26.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.09% | 37.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.06 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.54 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.76% | 20.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.63% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.64% | 9.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.50% | 10.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.31% | 6.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.67% | 10.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +451.28% | +954.74% |
| CAGRi | +40.74% | +60.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.31% | 52.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.80 | 1.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.24 | 1.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.45% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.63% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.10% | 16.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.75% | 24.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.31% | 16.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.91% | 22.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +8987.99% | +14093.98% |
| CAGRi | +57.00% | +64.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.98% | 50.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.00 | 1.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.54 | 1.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.45% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.63% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.42% | 15.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.88% | 22.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.23% | 18.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.68% | 28.36% |
| Category | AMD | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | AMD designs CPUs and GPUs for data center, gaming, and PC markets, with its Instinct line of AI accelerator GPUs positioned as the primary challenger to Nvidia's dominant AI training and inference chips. | Nvidia is the dominant designer of GPUs for AI training and inference, gaming, and data centers, with its CUDA software platform creating a deeply entrenched ecosystem advantage across the AI industry. |
| Investor focus | Investors track AMD's Instinct AI GPU revenue ramp, data center CPU (EPYC) market share gains against Intel, and the company's ability to capture incremental AI inference workloads. | Investors track Nvidia's data center GPU revenue growth, new chip architecture transitions (Blackwell and beyond), and the durability of its CUDA software ecosystem moat against emerging competition. |
- Instinct MI-series GPUs offer a credible, increasingly capable alternative to Nvidia for AI workloads
- Strong EPYC server CPU market share momentum against Intel
- Growing hyperscaler customer adoption for AI inference workloads where cost-per-token matters most
- Dominant market share in AI training and inference GPUs across nearly all major customers
- CUDA software ecosystem creates significant switching costs and developer lock-in
- Continuous architecture innovation maintains a performance lead over competitors
- Significantly smaller AI GPU market share and software ecosystem than Nvidia's CUDA platform
- Must continue rapid execution to narrow the performance and ecosystem gap with Nvidia
- AI accelerator revenue ramp still relatively early and less proven at scale than Nvidia's
- Extremely high valuation reflects sustained dominance expectations that must be continually justified
- Customer concentration among a small number of very large hyperscaler and AI company buyers
- Increasing competitive pressure from AMD, custom silicon (ASICs), and hyperscaler in-house chip development
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