AXP vs MA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
American Express and Mastercard both serve the payments industry, but American Express operates a closed-loop model combining card issuing and network operations with direct exposure to premium cardholder credit risk, while Mastercard operates a pure, asset-light open-loop network earning transaction fees without taking on consumer credit risk directly.
American Express offers exposure to premium cardholder spending with the added complexity and risk of direct card issuing, while Mastercard offers a purer, asset-light network economics model with broader global merchant reach but no direct credit risk exposure. Consider whether you prefer American Express's premium closed-loop model or Mastercard's asset-light network scale.
MA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+18.95% vs -9.99%), though AXP has the better forward P/E setup (16.11x vs 25.85x for MA). MA leads on both revenue growth (14.10%) and operating margin (61.11%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AXP (+15.79%) than for MA (+12.46%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to premium, high-spending cardholder segments with strong brand loyalty
- Value American Express's diversified revenue across card fees, interest income, and merchant discount fees
- Are comfortable with direct consumer credit risk exposure inherent to the closed-loop card issuing model
- Believe resilient premium spending will continue even during softer economic periods
- Prefer a pure, asset-light payment network model without direct consumer credit risk exposure
- Want exposure to global cross-border transaction volume growth and broad merchant network reach
- Value growing, high-margin value-added services layered on top of core network transaction fees
- Believe continued global electronic payment adoption will keep driving transaction volume growth
| Metric | AXP | MA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.2 | 60.2 |
| AI ranki | #339 | #160 |
| Latest closei | $325.50 | $647.18 |
| 1M returni | +7.50% | +17.19% |
| 3M returni | -6.12% | +13.32% |
| 6M returni | +3.02% | +30.20% |
| 1Y returni | -9.99% | +18.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AXP | MA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.03K (-9.7%) started 2025-11-04 | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $20.67K (+106.7%) started 2021-11-04 | $20.11K (+101.1%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $63.54K (+535.4%) started 2016-11-04 | $69.4K (+594.0%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AXP | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $219.27B | $521.49B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.69 | 32.78 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.11 | 25.85 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.42 | 18.43 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.28 | 15.24 |
| Analyst targeti | $375.96 | $669.46 |
| Target upsidei | +15.79% | +12.46% |
| Metric | AXP | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.80% | 14.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 11.00% | 22.10% |
| EPS growthi | +11.00% | +22.10% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +48.35% |
| Operating margini | 20.32% | 61.11% |
| Profit margini | 16.14% | 46.34% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.38% | 241.20% |
| Return on equityi | 34.38% | 241.20% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.17% | 0.58% |
| Payout ratioi | 15.32% | 17.63% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.05 | 0.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 172.38 | 439.58 |
| Current ratioi | 1.55 | 1.06 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.54 | 0.67 |
Over the past year, AXP and MA have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.47), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AXP | MA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -9.71% | +17.08% |
| CAGRi | -9.72% | +17.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.81% | 22.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.45 | 0.62 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.57 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.06% | 18.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.43% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.76% | 7.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.45% | 9.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.88% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.77% | 6.45% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +97.37% | +96.99% |
| CAGRi | +14.57% | +14.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.28% | 23.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.55% | 28.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.43% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.33% | 7.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.21% | 9.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.97% | 7.69% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.20% | 13.28% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +459.89% | +559.95% |
| CAGRi | +18.80% | +20.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.78% | 27.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | 0.67 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.84 | 0.97 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.64% | 41.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.43% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.35% | 6.32% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.33% | 8.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.82% | 12.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.58% | 21.70% |
| Category | AXP | MA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | American Express Company | Mastercard Incorporated |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | Operates a closed-loop payment network combined with card issuing, earning revenue from cardholder fees, interest income on card balances, and merchant discount fees, with a focus on premium, high-spending cardholders. | Operates a global open-loop payment network connecting card-issuing banks, merchants, and consumers, earning transaction-based fees without taking on direct consumer credit risk. |
| Investor focus | Premium cardholder spending growth (billed business), card fee revenue growth, credit quality trends, and international expansion. | Cross-border transaction volume growth, gross dollar volume trends, value-added services revenue growth, and network resilience amid new payment technologies. |
- Closed-loop network model captures economics from both card issuing and network transaction fees, unlike pure payment networks
- Strong brand loyalty among premium, high-spending cardholders supports resilient spending even in softer economic periods
- Diversified revenue streams across card fees, interest income, and merchant discount revenue
- Asset-light, high-margin network model earns transaction fees without taking on direct consumer credit risk
- Massive global merchant acceptance network with broad reach across issuing banks worldwide
- Growing value-added services (data analytics, cybersecurity, consulting) provide diversification beyond core transaction fees
- Closed-loop model carries direct credit risk exposure since American Express also issues its own cards, unlike pure network operators
- Premium cardholder spending is somewhat sensitive to broader consumer discretionary spending and travel trends
- Smaller global merchant acceptance network than the larger open-loop networks like Mastercard and Visa
- Transaction volume growth is sensitive to global consumer spending and cross-border travel trends
- Faces long-term competitive and regulatory risk from emerging payment technologies and alternative payment rails
- Network model relies on continued growth in electronic payment adoption globally
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