COF vs SYF Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Capital One and Synchrony Financial are both major players in U.S. consumer credit, but Capital One operates a broad, diversified banking and card franchise while Synchrony concentrates on private label and co-branded card partnerships with retailers.
Capital One offers a diversified banking franchise with expanding scale following its Discover acquisition, while Synchrony offers a more concentrated bet on retail partnership card economics. Consider whether you prefer Capital One's diversification and payments network ambitions or Synchrony's focused private label card model.
SYF holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SYF leads on both 1-year return (-1.95%) and forward P/E quality (7.43x vs 8.98x for COF), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COF is growing revenue faster (1111.00%), while SYF maintains the higher operating margin (50.22%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COF (+19.75%) than for SYF (+14.42%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a diversified consumer and commercial banking franchise
- Believe the Discover acquisition will strengthen its payments network position over time
- Value a large, digital-first banking model
- Are comfortable with integration execution risk from a major acquisition
- Want concentrated exposure to private label and co-branded retail credit card economics
- Believe its embedded retail partnership model provides durable distribution
- Value high-margin interest and fee income from private label programs
- Are comfortable with credit quality tied closely to discretionary retail spending
| Metric | COF | SYF |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.2 | 51.5 |
| AI ranki | #170 | #450 |
| Latest closei | $202.43 | $75.04 |
| 1M returni | -8.29% | -5.75% |
| 6M returni | +12.63% | +14.55% |
| 1Y returni | -11.89% | -1.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COF | SYF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.81K (-11.9%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.81K (-1.9%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $14.81K (+48.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $19.09K (+90.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $39.12K (+291.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $43.55K (+335.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COF | SYF |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $132.31B | $25.4B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.88 | 8.01 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.98 | 7.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.59 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.82 | 2.76 |
| Analyst targeti | $258.27 | $89.30 |
| Target upsidei | +19.75% | +14.42% |
| Metric | COF | SYF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1111.00% | 0.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -3.20% | 3.60% |
| EPS growthi | -3.20% | +3.60% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 33.63% | 50.22% |
| Profit margini | 21.87% | 35.51% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.03% | 20.79% |
| Return on equityi | 9.03% | 20.79% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.48% | 1.74% |
| Payout ratioi | 16.53% | 12.31% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.02 | 1.31 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, COF and SYF have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.83), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COF | SYF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -11.89% | -1.95% |
| CAGRi | -11.89% | -1.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.17% | 31.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.37 | -0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.48 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.73% | 27.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.52% | 15.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.17% | 12.41% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.86% | 14.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.84% | 9.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.29% | 11.77% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +38.39% | +73.72% |
| CAGRi | +6.72% | +11.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.26% | 36.80% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.10% | 46.65% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.52% | 15.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.84% | 19.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.10% | 23.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.96% | 15.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.58% | 18.86% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +232.32% | +243.25% |
| CAGRi | +12.76% | +13.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.27% | 39.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.56 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.25% | 66.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.52% | 15.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.39% | 17.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.33% | 22.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.87% | 26.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.21% | 44.43% |
| Category | COF | SYF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Capital One Financial Corporation | Synchrony Financial |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | A diversified bank holding company known for its credit card business, alongside auto lending and a growing digital consumer and commercial banking franchise. | A consumer financial services company specializing in private label and co-branded credit card programs through partnerships with retailers and other consumer brands. |
| Investor focus | Credit card delinquency and charge-off trends, net interest margin, and integration progress following its acquisition of Discover Financial Services. | Retail partner program renewals and additions, purchase volume growth, and net charge-off trends across its private label card portfolio. |
- Large, diversified credit card portfolio spans a wide range of consumer credit profiles
- Digital-first banking model has reduced reliance on traditional branch infrastructure
- Acquisition of Discover adds a proprietary payments network to its existing card business
- Deep retail partnership model creates embedded distribution through well-known consumer brands
- Private label card programs generate high-margin interest and fee income relative to general purpose cards
- Diversified partner base across retail, health, and other consumer verticals reduces reliance on any single relationship
- Credit card and auto loan credit quality is sensitive to broader consumer spending and employment trends
- Integration of the Discover acquisition carries execution risk over the coming years
- Regulatory scrutiny of large bank mergers and consumer lending practices remains an ongoing consideration
- Loss of a major retail partner or program renewal on less favorable terms could affect purchase volume
- Private label card credit quality is closely tied to discretionary consumer spending trends
- Faces competition from other card issuers and buy-now-pay-later alternatives for retail partnership business
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