NBIS vs APLD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Nebius is best evaluated as an AI cloud operator whose value depends on how fast it can convert GPU capacity into recurring compute revenue at scale, while Applied Digital is better read as a data center developer and landlord whose value depends on delivering leased megawatts on schedule. Both sit inside the same AI infrastructure buildout theme but carry different revenue models and risk profiles. The choice largely comes down to whether an investor wants operating AI cloud exposure or contracted real-estate-like lease exposure to the same demand wave.
Use this comparison to decide between operating-model AI cloud growth (Nebius) and contracted data center leasing (Applied Digital) rather than to pick a single best option, since both are pricing in continued hyperscaler AI capex.
NBIS holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NBIS leads on both 1-year return (+49.73%) and forward P/E quality (-68.09x vs -105.68x for APLD), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NBIS leads on both revenue growth (454.00%) and operating margin (-0.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for APLD (+180.95%) than for NBIS (+40.47%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct exposure to AI cloud compute demand rather than the underlying hardware or real estate
- Are comfortable with high valuation multiples justified only by sustained hypergrowth
- Believe GPU capacity will stay supply-constrained for several more years
- Can tolerate large swings in a stock still building out its long-term margin profile
- Prefer a contracted, lease-revenue-based approach to AI infrastructure exposure
- Want to track a smaller-cap name with a clear, dated construction and lease-up schedule
- Are willing to underwrite execution risk on large capital projects
- See data center landlording as a lower-multiple way to play the same AI buildout
| Metric | NBIS | APLD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 64.8 | 47.8 |
| AI ranki | #53 | #507 |
| Latest closei | $188.41 | $20.39 |
| 1M returni | -9.14% | -12.94% |
| 3M returni | +9.69% | -22.88% |
| 6M returni | +13.95% | -32.24% |
| 1Y returni | +49.73% | -46.00% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NBIS | APLD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.97K (+49.7%) started 2025-10-15 | $5.4K (-46.0%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $94.2K (+842.1%) started 2024-10-21 | $42.04K (+320.4%) started 2022-04-13 |
| 10Y ago | $94.2K (+842.1%) started 2024-10-21 | $42.04K (+320.4%) started 2022-04-13 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NBIS | APLD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $55.48B | $7.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | -68.09 | -105.68 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 41.95 | 21.65 |
| Analyst targeti | $286.69 | $74.23 |
| Target upsidei | +40.47% | +180.95% |
| Metric | NBIS | APLD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 454.00% | 406.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -709.52% | -811.61% |
| Operating margini | -0.22% | -48.22% |
| Profit margini | 3.13% | -39.91% |
| ROIC proxyi | 0.60% | -8.38% |
| Return on equityi | 0.60% | -8.38% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.43 | 5.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 98.60 | 136.23 |
| Current ratioi | 4.03 | 4.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 3.60 | 1.42 |
Over the past year, NBIS and APLD have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.66), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NBIS | APLD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +49.73% | -46.00% |
| CAGRi | +49.78% | -46.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 109.09% | 101.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.86 | -0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.41 | -0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.30% | 59.06% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.28% | 58.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.71% | 27.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.77% | 31.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.01% | 17.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.06% | 29.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +842.05% | +320.41% |
| CAGRi | +210.03% | +37.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 112.97% | 135.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.52 | 0.83 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.53 | 1.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.27% | 81.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.28% | 58.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.54% | 37.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.58% | 42.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 37.44% | 52.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.06% | 74.62% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +842.05% | +320.41% |
| CAGRi | +210.03% | +37.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 112.97% | 135.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.52 | 0.83 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.53 | 1.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.27% | 81.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.28% | 58.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.54% | 37.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.58% | 42.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 37.44% | 52.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.06% | 74.62% |
| Category | NBIS | APLD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Nebius Group N.V. | Applied Digital Corporation |
| Sector | Communication Services | Technology |
| Industry | Internet Content & Information | Information Technology Services |
| Core business | Nebius builds and operates vertically integrated GPU cloud infrastructure and data centers across Europe and North America for AI training and inference workloads. | Applied Digital designs, builds, and leases high-density data center capacity, with its Polaris Forge campuses increasingly dedicated to long-term AI compute leases with hyperscale tenants. |
| Investor focus | Investors track AI cloud revenue growth, new hyperscaler and enterprise compute contracts, and the pace of data center capacity buildout relative to capital spend. | Investors focus on the pace of megawatt capacity coming online, contracted lease revenue backlog from anchor tenants, and the company's ability to fund construction without excessive dilution. |
- Triple-digit percentage growth in AI cloud revenue as demand for GPU capacity outstrips supply
- Multi-billion-dollar, multi-year compute agreements with large AI labs and cloud partners
- Vertically integrated infrastructure model gives more control over margins than pure resellers
- Multi-billion-dollar, multi-year lease agreements with a major AI cloud tenant underpinning long-dated revenue visibility
- Phased data center buildout (Polaris Forge) with staggered capacity additions through 2027
- Direct exposure to the AI data center leasing theme without needing to sell GPU compute directly
- Valuation embeds years of hypergrowth, leaving little room for a demand slowdown
- Heavy ongoing capital expenditure required to keep expanding data center capacity
- Customer concentration risk if a small number of large compute contracts are delayed or renegotiated
- Capital-intensive build schedule creates financing and execution risk if construction timelines slip
- Revenue remains small relative to the scale of announced contracted backlog, so execution has to catch up to expectations
- Sector-wide data center stocks have shown high volatility on any sign of AI capex digestion
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on NBIS and APLD. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside NBIS and APLD, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.