XP vs NU: XP Inc vs Nu Holdings Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
XP Inc is Brazil's leading investment platform focused on brokerage, wealth management, and insurance for Brazilian investors, while Nu Holdings is the largest digital bank in Latin America with a credit card and banking franchise across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. XP is the investment platform; Nu is the banking platform.
XP vs NU is Brazilian investment distribution independence versus Latin American digital banking at massive scale — XP wins if Brazil's domestic investment market deepens and XP captures a larger share; Nu wins if 100M+ customers across three countries monetize deeply through banking products beyond the original credit card.
NU holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XP leads on both 1-year return (+81.73%) and forward P/E quality (8.52x vs 13.43x for NU), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NU leads on both revenue growth (52.10%) and operating margin (50.15%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NU (+21.96%) than for XP (+16.98%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want Brazilian investment platform exposure benefiting from capital market culture development
- value XP's independent broker-dealer model disrupting traditional bank investment distribution
- prefer investment services revenue (brokerage, insurance, wealth) over credit card and banking exposure
- are comfortable with Brazilian macro risk concentrated in a single investment-focused market
- want the largest Latin American digital banking franchise with 100M+ customers across Brazil, Mexico, Colombia
- believe Mexico's low banking penetration creates a larger and earlier-stage opportunity than Brazil for Nu
- value Nu's no-fee credit card model as a structural customer acquisition advantage vs traditional banks
- prefer broader Latin American exposure (3 countries) vs XP's Brazil-concentrated investment platform
| Metric | XP | NU |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 27.0 | 32.8 |
| AI ranki | #2571 | #1964 |
| Latest closei | $30.04 | $14.73 |
| 1M returni | +53.81% | +3.81% |
| 3M returni | +80.10% | +6.82% |
| 6M returni | +42.23% | -4.54% |
| 1Y returni | +81.73% | -2.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XP | NU |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.31K (+83.1%) started 2025-10-16 | $10K (+0.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $8.15K (-18.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $14.26K (+42.6%) started 2021-12-09 |
| 10Y ago | $8.72K (-12.8%) started 2019-12-11 | $14.26K (+42.6%) started 2021-12-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XP | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $10.14B | $74.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.25 | 21.10 |
| Forward P/Ei | 8.52 | 13.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | -6.35 | 7.18 |
| Analyst targeti | $23.38 | $18.78 |
| Target upsidei | +16.98% | +21.96% |
| Metric | XP | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.60% | 52.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 8.60% | 66.30% |
| EPS growthi | +8.60% | +66.30% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 31.18% | 50.15% |
| Profit margini | 28.54% | 42.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.56% | 31.63% |
| Return on equityi | 22.56% | 31.63% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.07% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 20.39% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| Debt/equityi | 642.49 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.49 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 1.45 | N/A |
Over the past year, XP and NU have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XP | NU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +83.06% | +0.00% |
| CAGRi | +83.25% | +0.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.11% | 42.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.27 | 0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.25 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.90% | 38.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.85% | 21.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.31% | 17.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.48% | 20.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.92% | 10.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.42% | 14.55% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -18.52% | +42.59% |
| CAGRi | -4.02% | +7.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.48% | 57.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.13 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 71.11% | 72.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.52% | 21.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 45.34% | 29.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 47.49% | 36.01% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.75% | 18.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.65% | 36.05% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -12.83% | +42.59% |
| CAGRi | -1.98% | +7.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.85% | 57.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.19% | 72.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.29% | 21.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 49.02% | 29.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.72% | 36.01% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.80% | 18.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 50.48% | 36.05% |
| Category | XP | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Company | XP Inc. | Nu Holdings Ltd. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Capital Markets | Banks - Regional |
| Core business | Brazil's leading investment platform and independent broker-dealer with brokerage, insurance, banking, and wealth management services. XP has disrupted Brazil's traditional big-bank investment distribution by offering independent advice and a broader product shelf. | Latin American digital banking leader headquartered in Brazil with 100M+ customers across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Nubank offers credit cards, accounts, loans, insurance, and investments through a fully digital, no-fee model. |
| Investor focus | AUM and client asset growth, revenue per client expansion, insurance penetration, and competitive positioning vs traditional Brazilian banks. | Revenue per active customer expansion as Nu adds products beyond credit card, Mexico and Colombia growth, cost efficiency improvement, and path to higher ROE. |
- XP is the dominant independent investment platform in Brazil with 4M+ active clients who have historically been underserved by traditional banks
- Insurance and advisory services add recurring fee revenue on top of brokerage commissions
- Brazil's domestic investment market is structurally underpenetrated — as capital market culture grows, XP benefits
- Nu has 100M+ customers in Latin America — the fastest-growing digital banking franchise in the world's most underbanked region
- No-fee credit card model attracted millions of underserved Latin American consumers who couldn't qualify for traditional bank credit
- Mexico expansion is in early innings — a massive opportunity given Mexico's low banking penetration relative to Brazil's more mature market
- XP faces competition from Nu Holdings' expanding investment products and from legacy banks defending distribution
- Brazilian macro volatility (political risk, currency, interest rates) directly affects investor confidence and AUM flows
- Rising domestic interest rates in Brazil shift investor preference to simpler fixed-income products with lower XP margins
- Credit quality in Brazil and Mexico depends on macroeconomic conditions — Nu's growth customer base includes higher-risk first-time credit users
- Revenue per customer is low relative to developed-market banks — monetization deepening (investments, loans, insurance) is essential for returns
- Competition from Mercado Pago (MercadoLibre), Itaú, and other digital challengers in Brazil's financial services market
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