SMCI vs NVDA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Super Micro Computer assembles and sells the server systems that house AI chips, operating at lower margins and with a history of governance concerns, while NVIDIA designs the GPUs at the center of those systems and captures far higher margins as the dominant AI compute supplier. NVIDIA offers concentrated exposure to the most profitable layer of the AI hardware stack, while Super Micro offers higher revenue growth rates on a smaller earnings base but with more competitive and governance-related risk. The choice depends on whether an investor prioritizes margin quality and market leadership or faster top-line growth at a lower valuation multiple relative to sales.
Use this comparison to weigh dominant, high-margin GPU exposure (NVIDIA) against faster-growing but lower-margin, higher-risk AI server assembly exposure (Super Micro Computer).
NVDA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NVDA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+20.80% vs -34.95%), though SMCI has the better forward P/E setup (6.95x vs 14.21x for NVDA). NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for SMCI (+14.53%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct exposure to AI server hardware demand growth at a lower valuation multiple than chip leaders
- Are comfortable with lower margins typical of server assembly businesses
- Have done diligence on the company's past accounting concerns and are comfortable with the resolved governance changes
- Believe liquid cooling technology leadership can be a durable differentiator
- Want concentrated exposure to the dominant supplier of AI training and inference compute
- Value extremely high profitability and cash generation over faster percentage revenue growth
- Prefer a company with a longer track record of stable governance and financial reporting
- Are comfortable holding a mega-cap stock with elevated growth expectations already priced in
| Metric | SMCI | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 73.6 | 88.0 |
| AI ranki | #26 | #3 |
| Latest closei | $35.09 | $217.23 |
| 1M returni | -1.54% | +2.38% |
| 3M returni | +42.18% | +4.74% |
| 6M returni | +23.56% | +9.52% |
| 1Y returni | -34.95% | +20.80% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SMCI | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.52K (-34.8%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.95K (+19.5%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $100.34K (+903.4%) started 2021-10-18 | $98.12K (+881.2%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $161.85K (+1518.5%) started 2016-10-17 | $1.37M (+13584.8%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SMCI | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $24.31B | $5.25T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.35 | 27.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 6.95 | 14.21 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 23.66 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.77 | 17.23 |
| Analyst targeti | $42.38 | $323.42 |
| Target upsidei | +14.53% | +48.66% |
| Metric | SMCI | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 93.20% | 105.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 434.70% | 127.80% |
| EPS growthi | +434.70% | +127.80% |
| FCF margini | -21.12% | +13.80% |
| Operating margini | 13.38% | 66.24% |
| Profit margini | 5.71% | 63.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 21.47% | 117.21% |
| Return on equityi | 21.47% | 117.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.46% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 3.54% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.97 | 2.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 63.95 | 16.97 |
| Current ratioi | 3.87 | 4.59 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.93 | 2.92 |
Over the past year, SMCI and NVDA have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.47), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SMCI | NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -34.83% | +19.48% |
| CAGRi | -34.87% | +19.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 92.07% | 37.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.04 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.06 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 62.70% | 20.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.25% | 9.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.66% | 9.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 40.67% | 10.21% | |
| Max daily dropi | 33.32% | 6.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.27% | 10.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +903.43% | +879.38% |
| CAGRi | +58.68% | +57.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 89.22% | 51.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.91 | 1.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.43 | 1.63 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.84% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 70.46% | 9.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 37.73% | 16.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 47.20% | 24.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 33.32% | 16.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.45% | 22.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1518.54% | +13361.95% |
| CAGRi | +32.12% | +63.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.25% | 50.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.69 | 1.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.05 | 1.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.84% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 70.46% | 9.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.11% | 15.50% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.69% | 22.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 41.12% | 18.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.45% | 28.36% |
| Category | SMCI | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Super Micro Computer, Inc. | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Computer Hardware | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Super Micro Computer designs and manufactures high-performance, liquid-cooled server and storage systems built around leading GPU platforms, serving hyperscale, enterprise, and sovereign AI data center customers. | NVIDIA designs GPUs and the associated software and networking technology that power the majority of AI training and inference workloads globally, alongside gaming and other computing markets. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch AI server revenue growth, gross margin trends amid intense competition, and the resolution of prior accounting and governance concerns that pressured the stock. | Investors focus on data center GPU revenue growth, the pace of new chip architecture launches, supply chain capacity, and customer concentration among major cloud and AI companies. |
- Rapid revenue growth tied to strong demand for liquid-cooled AI server systems
- Large, diversified customer wins including major multi-billion-dollar sovereign AI infrastructure deals
- Early mover advantage in liquid cooling technology increasingly required for high-density AI server racks
- Dominant market position in AI training and inference GPUs with a multi-year technology and software ecosystem lead
- Extremely high profitability and free cash flow generation relative to hardware assemblers and peers
- Broad demand base spanning hyperscalers, enterprises, and sovereign AI infrastructure buildouts
- History of accounting concerns and an auditor change created lasting governance-related valuation discounts
- Server assembly is a lower-margin, highly competitive position in the AI hardware value chain
- Heavily dependent on GPU supply availability and pricing from chip partners
- Customer concentration among a small number of very large hyperscaler buyers creates order lumpiness risk
- Export restrictions and geopolitical dynamics can affect access to certain international markets
- Valuation reflects sustained expectations for continued AI compute demand growth
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on SMCI and NVDA. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside SMCI and NVDA, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.