AXP vs COF Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare American Express's premium, closed-loop card network and affluent customer base against Capital One's broader, higher-risk card and lending business post-Discover acquisition.
Use this American Express vs Capital One comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
COF holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. COF leads on both 1-year return (-5.86%) and forward P/E quality (8.98x vs 16.11x for AXP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. COF leads on both revenue growth (1111.00%) and operating margin (33.63%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COF (+19.75%) than for AXP (+15.79%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | AXP | COF |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.1 | 60.5 |
| AI ranki | #339 | #139 |
| Latest closei | $325.50 | $208.71 |
| 1M returni | +7.50% | +7.18% |
| 3M returni | -6.12% | -5.95% |
| 6M returni | +3.02% | +10.03% |
| 1Y returni | -9.99% | -5.86% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AXP | COF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.03K (-9.7%) started 2025-11-04 | $9.46K (-5.4%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $20.18K (+101.8%) started 2021-11-05 | $15.42K (+54.2%) started 2021-11-05 |
| 10Y ago | $62.12K (+521.2%) started 2016-11-07 | $38.25K (+282.5%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AXP | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $219.27B | $132.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.69 | 11.88 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.11 | 8.98 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.42 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.28 | 2.82 |
| Analyst targeti | $375.96 | $258.27 |
| Target upsidei | +15.79% | +19.75% |
| Metric | AXP | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.80% | 1111.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 11.00% | -3.20% |
| EPS growthi | +11.00% | -3.20% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 20.32% | 33.63% |
| Profit margini | 16.14% | 21.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.38% | 9.03% |
| Return on equityi | 34.38% | 9.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.17% | 1.48% |
| Payout ratioi | 15.32% | 19.27% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.05 | 1.02 |
| Debt/equityi | 172.38 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.55 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 1.54 | N/A |
Over the past year, AXP and COF have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.76), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AXP | COF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -9.71% | -5.42% |
| CAGRi | -9.72% | -5.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.81% | 31.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.45 | -0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.57 | -0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.06% | 31.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.43% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.76% | 18.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.45% | 20.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.88% | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.77% | 10.29% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +92.73% | +44.06% |
| CAGRi | +14.03% | +7.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.27% | 35.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.64 | 0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.55% | 45.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.43% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.33% | 18.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.22% | 22.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.97% | 9.96% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.20% | 18.58% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +447.44% | +224.95% |
| CAGRi | +18.55% | +12.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.78% | 37.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.55 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.64% | 60.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.43% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.36% | 17.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.33% | 22.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.82% | 23.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.58% | 38.21% |
| Category | AXP | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AXP | COF |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Can… | Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United Sta… |
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Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
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