BK vs NTRS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BNY Mellon and Northern Trust both operate in custody banking and asset servicing, but BNY Mellon does so at much larger global scale, while Northern Trust maintains a stronger relative focus on wealth management for affluent and high-net-worth clients alongside its institutional servicing business.
BNY Mellon offers scale leadership in global custody and securities services, while Northern Trust offers a more concentrated wealth management franchise alongside its asset servicing business. Consider whether you prefer BNY Mellon's scale advantages or Northern Trust's wealth management client focus.
BK holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BK leads on both 1-year return (+64.55%) and forward P/E quality (14.23x vs 14.74x for NTRS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NTRS leads on both revenue growth (36.40%) and operating margin (42.50%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BK (+4.00%) than for NTRS (-1.35%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a scaled global custody and securities servicing franchise
- Believe technology modernization investments will strengthen its competitive position
- Value diversified fee revenue across custody, treasury, and investment management
- Are comfortable with fee revenue tied to global market asset values
- Want exposure to a wealth management-focused franchise for affluent and high-net-worth clients
- Believe a conservative risk management culture supports balance sheet stability
- Value premium client relationships built through long-standing wealth management expertise
- Are comfortable with smaller scale relative to the largest global custody banks
| Metric | BK | NTRS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.3 | 51.1 |
| AI ranki | #351 | #251 |
| Latest closei | $157.13 | $165.54 |
| 1M returni | +7.57% | -6.28% |
| 3M returni | +16.31% | -10.36% |
| 6M returni | +26.75% | +4.01% |
| 1Y returni | +64.55% | +32.89% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BK | NTRS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.05K (+60.5%) started 2025-07-17 | $13.26K (+32.6%) started 2025-10-17 |
| 5Y ago | $42.25K (+322.5%) started 2021-07-19 | $17.3K (+73.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $65.08K (+550.8%) started 2016-07-18 | $38.96K (+289.6%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BK | NTRS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $94.14B | $34.17B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.02 | 15.99 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.23 | 14.74 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.45 |
| EV/Revenuei | -3.18 | 4.56 |
| Analyst targeti | $142.64 | $184.27 |
| Target upsidei | +4.00% | -1.35% |
| Metric | BK | NTRS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.40% | 36.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 41.80% | 98.60% |
| EPS growthi | +41.80% | +98.60% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 37.65% | 42.50% |
| Profit margini | 28.72% | 24.67% |
| ROIC proxyi | 13.47% | 17.07% |
| Return on equityi | 13.47% | 17.07% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.53% | 1.76% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 27.49% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, BK and NTRS have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.73), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BK | NTRS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +60.47% | +32.62% |
| CAGRi | +60.58% | +32.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.83% | 24.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.25 | 1.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.39 | 1.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 10.15% | 15.06% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 13.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.47% | 3.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 3.70% | 5.41% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.58% | 3.95% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.90% | 6.52% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +272.32% | +53.32% |
| CAGRi | +30.11% | +8.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.54% | 29.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.02 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.48 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.45% | 50.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 13.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.15% | 20.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.37% | 24.65% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.26% | 9.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.00% | 15.76% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +398.85% | +198.24% |
| CAGRi | +17.44% | +11.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.91% | 30.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.49% | 50.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 13.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.56% | 15.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.30% | 19.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.50% | 18.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.89% | 21.30% |
| Category | BK | NTRS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | Northern Trust Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | N/A | Asset Management |
| Core business | A global custody bank and financial services company providing asset servicing, securities services, and investment management to institutional clients worldwide. | A financial holding company providing wealth management, asset servicing, and asset management services to affluent individuals, families, and institutional clients. |
| Investor focus | Assets under custody and administration growth, fee-based revenue trends, and progress on technology and platform modernization investments. | Wealth management fee growth among high-net-worth clients, assets under custody and management trends, and expense discipline relative to fee revenue growth. |
- Scale in global custody and securities services creates high switching costs for institutional clients
- Diversified fee revenue across custody, treasury services, and investment management reduces reliance on interest income
- Long operating history as a trusted counterparty gives it credibility with large institutional asset owners
- Strong reputation in wealth management for affluent and high-net-worth individuals supports premium client relationships
- Asset servicing business benefits from long-standing institutional client relationships
- Conservative risk management culture has historically supported balance sheet stability
- Fee revenue is sensitive to global market asset values and trading volumes, which can be volatile
- Client fee pressure remains a persistent theme across the custody banking industry
- Technology modernization investments require sustained spending to keep pace with client expectations
- Smaller overall scale relative to the largest custody banks can limit some competitive cost advantages
- Fee revenue is sensitive to global market asset values and trading volumes
- Faces competition from both larger custody banks and dedicated wealth management firms
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