DFS vs COF Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Discover Financial and Capital One are combining forces, with Discover bringing its own payments network and direct banking model while Capital One contributes its diversified credit card and banking scale.
Discover offers exposure to a proprietary payments network with direct banking economics, while Capital One offers a broader, more diversified consumer finance franchise now absorbing that network. Consider how the combination's execution progress shapes the value of holding either stock through the transition.
COF holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. On fundamentals, COF is growing revenue faster (1111.00%), while DFS maintains the higher operating margin (48.02%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COF (+19.75%) than for DFS (+5.77%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a proprietary closed-loop payments network
- Believe the Capital One combination will unlock network scale advantages
- Value a low-overhead direct banking deposit model
- Are comfortable with integration risk during the merger process
- Want exposure to a diversified consumer and commercial banking franchise
- Believe the Discover acquisition will strengthen its payments network position over time
- Value a large, digital-first banking model
- Are comfortable with integration execution risk from a major acquisition
| Metric | DFS | COF |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | N/A | 60.2 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #170 |
| Latest closei | $200.05 | $202.43 |
| 1M returni | N/A | -8.29% |
| 6M returni | N/A | +12.63% |
| 1Y returni | N/A | -11.89% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DFS | COF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | N/A | $8.81K (-11.9%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | N/A | $14.81K (+48.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | N/A | $39.12K (+291.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DFS | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $50.34B | $132.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.69 | 11.88 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.76 | 8.98 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.05 | 2.82 |
| Analyst targeti | $211.60 | $258.27 |
| Target upsidei | +5.77% | +19.75% |
| Metric | DFS | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.90% | 1111.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 30.50% | -3.20% |
| EPS growthi | +30.50% | -3.20% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 48.02% | 33.63% |
| Profit margini | 35.88% | 21.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 28.47% | 9.03% |
| Return on equityi | 28.47% | 9.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.40% | 1.48% |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 16.53% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.15 | 1.02 |
| Debt/equityi | 76.67 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.04 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 1.03 | N/A |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DFS | COF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | N/A | -11.89% |
| CAGRi | N/A | -11.89% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 32.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | -0.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | -0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 31.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 21.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 16.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 18.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 10.29% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | N/A | +38.39% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +6.72% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 35.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 49.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 21.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 20.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 25.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 9.96% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 18.58% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | N/A | +232.32% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +12.76% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 37.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 60.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 21.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 17.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 22.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 23.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 38.21% |
| Category | DFS | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Discover Financial Services | Capital One Financial Corporation |
| Sector | Financials | Financial Services |
| Industry | N/A | Credit Services |
| Core business | A financial services company operating its own credit card network alongside direct banking products including credit cards, personal loans, and deposit accounts, now part of the pending combination with Capital One. | A diversified bank holding company known for its credit card business, alongside auto lending and a growing digital consumer and commercial banking franchise, now integrating Discover Financial Services. |
| Investor focus | Network transaction volume growth, direct banking deposit trends, and how the Capital One combination reshapes its competitive position over time. | Credit card delinquency and charge-off trends, net interest margin, and integration progress following the acquisition of Discover. |
- Owns its own closed-loop payments network, giving it a structural advantage most card issuers lack
- Direct banking model with no physical branch network supports competitive deposit pricing and lower overhead
- Combination with Capital One is expected to create a larger, more diversified payments and banking franchise
- Large, diversified credit card portfolio spans a wide range of consumer credit profiles
- Digital-first banking model has reduced reliance on traditional branch infrastructure
- Acquisition of Discover adds a proprietary payments network to its existing card business
- Network volume growth depends on merchant acceptance expansion relative to larger competing networks
- Credit card and personal loan credit quality is sensitive to consumer spending and employment trends
- Integration into Capital One introduces execution and cultural integration risk over the coming years
- Credit card and auto loan credit quality is sensitive to broader consumer spending and employment trends
- Integration of the Discover acquisition carries execution risk over the coming years
- Regulatory scrutiny of large bank mergers and consumer lending practices remains an ongoing consideration
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