HIMS vs LLY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Hims & Hers is a fast-growing telehealth distribution and subscription business riding the weight-loss boom without owning the underlying drugs, while Eli Lilly is the pharmaceutical innovator that actually developed and manufactures the leading GLP-1 therapies. The better stock depends on whether an investor prefers a smaller, higher-growth consumer platform with regulatory overhang, or a mega-cap pharma compounder with proven drug economics and a broader pipeline.
Use this HIMS vs LLY comparison to separate the distribution layer of the GLP-1 boom from its manufacturing source. HIMS offers leveraged upside to telehealth-driven weight-loss demand but carries real regulatory risk around compounding; LLY offers durable, patent-protected drug economics but at a much larger, slower-growing scale.
LLY holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY leads on both 1-year return (+51.42%) and forward P/E quality (24.87x vs 29.03x for HIMS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LLY leads on both revenue growth (47.70%) and operating margin (54.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+11.96%) than for HIMS (+7.36%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want high-growth, high-beta exposure to the direct-to-consumer telehealth and weight-loss trend
- Believe branded-partnership access (e.g., with Novo Nordisk) can offset compounding pressure over time
- Are comfortable with regulatory and legal uncertainty around compounded medications
- Prefer an asset-light subscription platform over owning patents and manufacturing plants
- Want direct ownership of the actual GLP-1/GIP intellectual property and manufacturing economics
- Value pipeline diversification across obesity, diabetes, oncology, and neuroscience
- Prefer a mega-cap pharma balance sheet and dividend over a smaller, more volatile consumer platform
- Believe oral GLP-1 (orforglipron) can meaningfully expand the addressable obesity market
| Metric | HIMS | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.5 | 76.6 |
| AI ranki | #1046 | #22 |
| Latest closei | $29.38 | $1,251.61 |
| 1M returni | +5.49% | +10.17% |
| 3M returni | -12.77% | +7.05% |
| 6M returni | +8.86% | +38.45% |
| 1Y returni | -53.19% | +51.42% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HIMS | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $4.68K (-53.2%) started 2025-10-15 | $15.28K (+52.8%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $35.14K (+251.4%) started 2021-10-15 | $56.41K (+464.1%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $29.98K (+199.8%) started 2019-09-13 | $216.68K (+2066.8%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HIMS | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $6.79B | $1.05T |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 39.36 |
| Forward P/Ei | 29.03 | 24.87 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 14.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.85 | 13.72 |
| Analyst targeti | $31.23 | $1,315.04 |
| Target upsidei | +7.36% | +11.96% |
| Metric | HIMS | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 38.20% | 47.70% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 26.20% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +26.20% |
| FCF margini | +32.95% | +13.89% |
| Operating margini | -12.75% | 54.22% |
| Profit margini | -5.51% | 33.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | -32.03% | 102.29% |
| Return on equityi | -32.03% | 102.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.59% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 21.69% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.42 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 477.13 | 162.07 |
| Current ratioi | 0.93 | 1.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.82 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, HIMS and LLY have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.02), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HIMS | LLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -53.19% | +52.75% |
| CAGRi | -53.21% | +52.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 90.24% | 34.68% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.46 | 1.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.71 | 2.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.86% | 23.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.19% | 2.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 52.10% | 6.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.56% | 8.82% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.03% | 7.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.71% | 8.60% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +251.44% | +443.42% |
| CAGRi | +28.58% | +40.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 84.41% | 32.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 1.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.03 | 1.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.88% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.26% | 2.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 32.82% | 7.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.93% | 10.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 34.63% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 39.06% | 17.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +199.80% | +1748.09% |
| CAGRi | +16.75% | +33.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 77.49% | 30.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.53 | 0.96 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.81 | 1.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.29% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 57.26% | 2.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.81% | 6.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.18% | 9.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 34.63% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 39.06% | 17.93% |
| Category | HIMS | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Direct-to-consumer telehealth platform selling subscription access to weight loss (including compounded and branded GLP-1 medications), sexual health, dermatology, and mental health treatments through affiliated pharmacies and prescribers. | Global pharmaceutical company with a leading GLP-1 franchise (Zepbound, Mounjaro), diabetes and obesity pipeline including oral GLP-1 orforglipron, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience drugs. |
| Investor focus | Subscriber growth, weight-loss revenue mix, gross margin as compounded GLP-1 access shifts toward branded partnerships, and regulatory risk around compounding. | Zepbound/Mounjaro volume and pricing, manufacturing capacity expansion, oral GLP-1 (orforglipron) launch trajectory, and pipeline diversification beyond incretins. |
- Large, fast-growing direct-to-consumer subscriber base with vertically integrated telehealth, pharmacy, and marketing funnel
- Diversified treatment categories beyond weight loss (dermatology, sexual health, mental health) reduce single-category dependence
- Asset-light model generates high incremental margins as the subscriber base scales
- Market-leading approved GLP-1/GIP franchise with tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) driving industry-best obesity and diabetes efficacy data
- Deep, diversified late-stage pipeline including oral GLP-1 orforglipron reducing reliance on injectable-only demand
- Massive manufacturing investment easing prior supply constraints and supporting international expansion
- Regulatory and legal risk around compounded semaglutide/tirzepatide access as FDA shortage determinations evolve
- Dependence on personalized/compounded GLP-1 margins that could compress if forced toward lower-margin branded partnerships
- Intensifying competition from other telehealth platforms and direct pharma-to-consumer channels
- Manufacturing capacity and supply chain execution as demand continues to outstrip production in many markets
- Pricing and reimbursement pressure from PBMs, Medicare negotiation, and compounded-drug competition
- Patent cliff exposure on some legacy non-incretin products even as GLP-1 revenue scales
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