HOOD vs CME Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Robinhood is a retail-focused trading platform with growth tied to retail investor engagement, options and crypto trading activity, and newer product expansion, while CME Group is the dominant, highly profitable derivatives exchange operator with a diversified, capital-light business model built on transaction fees and market data. The better stock depends on whether an investor prefers Robinhood's higher-growth, higher-volatility retail fintech exposure or CME's steadier, more entrenched exchange economics.
Use this HOOD vs CME comparison to weigh a growth-oriented retail trading platform against a mature, dominant derivatives exchange. Robinhood offers more direct leverage to retail trading and crypto engagement trends; CME offers more diversified, steadier exposure to overall market trading volume and volatility across asset classes.
CME holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CME leads on both 1-year return (+7.95%) and forward P/E quality (22.10x vs 32.48x for HOOD), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, HOOD is growing revenue faster (32.30%), while CME maintains the higher operating margin (65.04%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HOOD (+15.80%) than for CME (-0.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want higher-growth, higher-beta exposure to retail trading, options, and crypto engagement trends
- Believe newer products like prediction markets and international expansion can diversify revenue
- Are comfortable with regulatory scrutiny risk around payment for order flow and newer product categories
- Prefer a consumer-facing fintech platform over a wholesale market infrastructure provider
- Want exposure to a dominant, highly profitable derivatives exchange with durable network effects
- Prefer a capital-light business model driven by transaction fees and market data licensing
- Value diversified trading volume across interest rates, equities, FX, and commodities
- Prefer steadier, more mature exchange economics over higher-beta retail fintech growth
| Metric | HOOD | CME |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.3 | 46.5 |
| AI ranki | #348 | #651 |
| Latest closei | $103.99 | $289.46 |
| 1M returni | -5.85% | +5.22% |
| 3M returni | -1.91% | +17.54% |
| 6M returni | +19.74% | -2.28% |
| 1Y returni | -22.48% | +7.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HOOD | CME |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.91K (-20.9%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.03K (+10.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $25.58K (+155.8%) started 2021-10-18 | $18.96K (+89.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $29.87K (+198.7%) started 2021-07-29 | $58.2K (+482.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HOOD | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $95.79B | $102.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 47.14 | 24.22 |
| Forward P/Ei | 32.48 | 22.10 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 15.75 |
| EV/Revenuei | 18.68 | 15.44 |
| Analyst targeti | $123.38 | $283.07 |
| Target upsidei | +15.80% | -0.96% |
| Metric | HOOD | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 32.30% | 0.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 47.60% | 2.50% |
| EPS growthi | +47.60% | +2.50% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +43.05% |
| Operating margini | 43.88% | 65.04% |
| Profit margini | 42.01% | 63.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.62% | 15.80% |
| Return on equityi | 23.62% | 15.80% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 95.42% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.32 | 0.27 |
| Debt/equityi | 240.28 | 14.59 |
| Current ratioi | 1.12 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.07 | 0.02 |
Over the past year, HOOD and CME have moved barely in opposite directions (correlation of -0.05), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HOOD | CME |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -20.88% | +10.27% |
| CAGRi | -20.92% | +10.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 71.47% | 24.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.04 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.06 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.70% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.30% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.26% | 10.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.42% | 13.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.24% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.21% | 11.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +155.82% | +59.20% |
| CAGRi | +20.70% | +9.76% | |
| Volatilityi | 68.55% | 20.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.53% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.79% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 49.61% | 11.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 56.36% | 14.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.79% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.21% | 11.49% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +198.65% | +291.03% |
| CAGRi | +23.34% | +14.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 73.64% | 24.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.21% | 37.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.79% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 58.83% | 9.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 65.32% | 12.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.59% | 18.39% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.21% | 27.51% |
| Category | HOOD | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Robinhood Markets, Inc. | CME Group Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Capital Markets | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Retail-focused trading and investing platform offering commission-free stock, options, and cryptocurrency trading, along with newer products including prediction markets, retirement accounts, and expanding international operations. | Operator of the world's largest derivatives exchange, offering futures and options trading across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, and cryptocurrency products, generating revenue primarily from transaction fees and market data. |
| Investor focus | Trading volume growth across equities, options, and crypto, net interest income from customer cash and margin balances, growth of newer products like prediction markets, and international expansion progress. | Trading volume and open interest growth across asset classes, market data and clearing revenue, and margin stability from its scaled, diversified exchange network. |
- Large, engaged retail customer base with strong brand recognition among younger and first-time investors
- Diversified revenue growth drivers including options and crypto trading, net interest income, and newer products like prediction markets
- Expanding internationally and into adjacent financial products, broadening its total addressable market
- Dominant, largely irreplaceable market position in derivatives trading with deep liquidity and network effects
- Highly profitable, capital-light business model driven by transaction fees and market data licensing
- Diversified trading volume across interest rates, equities, FX, commodities, and growing cryptocurrency derivatives
- Revenue sensitivity to retail trading activity and crypto trading volume, which can be highly cyclical
- Regulatory scrutiny around payment for order flow, options trading, and newer products like prediction markets
- Net interest income sensitivity to interest rate cycles given its reliance on customer cash balances
- Trading volume can be cyclical, tied to market volatility, interest rate cycles, and macroeconomic uncertainty
- Regulatory and competitive risk from alternative exchanges and clearing venues
- Slower overall growth profile than higher-beta retail fintech platforms given its already-massive scale
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