MA vs COF Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Mastercard's network fee-driven, asset-light model against Capital One's card issuing and lending business, now scaled up by its Discover deal.
Use this Mastercard vs Capital One comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
COF holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+18.95% vs -5.86%), though COF has the better forward P/E setup (8.98x vs 25.85x for MA). On fundamentals, COF is growing revenue faster (1111.00%), while MA maintains the higher operating margin (61.11%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COF (+19.75%) than for MA (+12.46%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | MA | COF |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.2 | 60.5 |
| AI ranki | #160 | #139 |
| Latest closei | $647.18 | $208.71 |
| 1M returni | +17.19% | +7.18% |
| 3M returni | +13.32% | -5.95% |
| 6M returni | +30.20% | +10.03% |
| 1Y returni | +18.95% | -5.86% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MA | COF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2025-11-04 | $9.46K (-5.4%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $20.11K (+101.1%) started 2021-11-04 | $15.56K (+55.6%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $69.4K (+594.0%) started 2016-11-04 | $39.17K (+291.7%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MA | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $521.49B | $132.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 32.78 | 11.88 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.85 | 8.98 |
| Price/Salesi | 18.43 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 15.24 | 2.82 |
| Analyst targeti | $669.46 | $258.27 |
| Target upsidei | +12.46% | +19.75% |
| Metric | MA | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.10% | 1111.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 22.10% | -3.20% |
| EPS growthi | +22.10% | -3.20% |
| FCF margini | +48.35% | N/A |
| Operating margini | 61.11% | 33.63% |
| Profit margini | 46.34% | 21.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 241.20% | 9.03% |
| Return on equityi | 241.20% | 9.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.58% | 1.48% |
| Payout ratioi | 17.63% | 19.27% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.73 | 1.02 |
| Debt/equityi | 439.58 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.06 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 0.67 | N/A |
Over the past year, MA and COF have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.45), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MA | COF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +17.08% | -5.42% |
| CAGRi | +17.12% | -5.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.91% | 31.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | -0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.91 | -0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.75% | 31.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.42% | 18.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.22% | 20.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.77% | 8.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.45% | 10.29% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +96.99% | +45.39% |
| CAGRi | +14.52% | +7.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.72% | 35.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.72 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 28.25% | 45.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.15% | 18.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.39% | 22.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.69% | 9.96% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.28% | 18.58% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +559.95% | +232.69% |
| CAGRi | +20.77% | +12.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.04% | 37.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.00% | 60.25% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.32% | 17.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.88% | 22.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.73% | 23.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.70% | 38.21% |
| Category | MA | COF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MA | COF |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. | Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United Sta… |
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AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
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