SOFI vs TOST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SOFI and TOST are both called fintech but they operate on different foundations. SoFi is a chartered bank that lends money and earns net interest income, so credit quality and deposit costs drive its results. Toast is a vertical software and payments company whose revenue scales with restaurant transaction volume, so location growth and consumer spending drive its results. One carries credit risk; the other carries merchant and consumer spending risk.
Use this SOFI vs TOST comparison to separate balance sheet risk from volume risk. SoFi's earnings depend on whether its loans get repaid and how cheaply it can fund them. Toast's depend on adding locations and on those locations ringing up sales, with no credit exposure of comparable significance.
TOST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TOST leads on both 1-year return (-18.47%) and forward P/E quality (19.65x vs 21.70x for SOFI), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. SOFI leads on both revenue growth (42.60%) and operating margin (16.96%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.58% for SOFI and +14.35% for TOST.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want digital banking exposure with a real bank charter and deposit funding
- Believe cross-sell across lending, investing, and banking will keep lifting revenue per member
- Value the growing fee-based and technology platform revenue
- Accept consumer credit risk as the central concern
- Want exposure to vertical software with embedded payments in a large fragmented market
- Value the stickiness of a system running a restaurant's daily operations
- Believe location growth and payment volume will compound for years
- Accept payment-led gross margins and exposure to restaurant industry health
| Metric | SOFI | TOST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 37.9 | 23.4 |
| AI ranki | #1325 | #3578 |
| Latest closei | $16.58 | $30.60 |
| 1M returni | -12.00% | -17.23% |
| 6M returni | +8.86% | +19.34% |
| 1Y returni | -41.70% | -18.47% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SOFI | TOST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.9K (-41.0%) started 2025-09-25 | $8.3K (-17.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $9.37K (-6.3%) started 2021-09-27 | $5.57K (-44.3%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $13.59K (+35.9%) started 2021-01-04 | $4.9K (-51.0%) started 2021-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SOFI | TOST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $23.04B | $19.68B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 36.41 | 43.09 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.70 | 19.65 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.17 | 2.64 |
| Analyst targeti | $20.26 | $38.92 |
| Target upsidei | +13.58% | +14.35% |
| Metric | SOFI | TOST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 42.60% | 23.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 40.40% | 100.00% |
| EPS growthi | +40.40% | +100.00% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +6.97% |
| Operating margini | 16.96% | 7.44% |
| Profit margini | 14.91% | 7.14% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.09% | 25.16% |
| Return on equityi | 7.09% | 25.16% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.20 | 1.73 |
| Debt/equityi | 30.84 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.10 | 2.40 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.46 | 1.68 |
Over the past year, SOFI and TOST have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.39), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SOFI | TOST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -41.04% | -16.96% |
| CAGRi | -41.08% | -16.98% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.81% | 46.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.72 | -0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.97 | -0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.96% | 42.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.53% | 21.58% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 33.50% | 19.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.56% | 22.96% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.44% | 14.74% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.11% | 21.48% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -6.33% | -44.26% |
| CAGRi | -1.30% | -11.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 66.03% | 60.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.36 | 0.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 81.54% | 80.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.53% | 53.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 51.67% | 57.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 56.47% | 59.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.44% | 22.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.27% | 36.74% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +35.90% | -51.05% |
| CAGRi | +5.51% | -13.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 71.50% | 60.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.57 | -0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 83.32% | 80.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.53% | 53.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 51.68% | 57.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 56.53% | 59.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.44% | 22.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.27% | 36.74% |
| Category | SOFI | TOST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | SoFi Technologies, Inc. | Toast, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Technology |
| Industry | Credit Services | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | Digital financial services company with a national bank charter, operating three segments: lending in personal, student, and home loans; financial services including deposits, investing, and credit cards; and a technology platform providing card issuing and banking infrastructure to other companies. | Provider of an integrated restaurant platform combining point-of-sale hardware and software with payment processing, payroll, online ordering, and lending products. Most revenue comes from payment processing tied to customer transaction volume. |
| Investor focus | Member growth and products per member, deposit funding costs, credit performance on personal loans, fee-based revenue mix, and technology platform wins. | Net location additions, gross payment volume growth, subscription revenue per location, take rate, and progress toward consistent profitability. |
- Bank charter allows deposit funding, which is cheaper and more stable than wholesale borrowing
- Growing fee-based revenue reduces reliance on balance-sheet lending
- Strong member growth with meaningful cross-sell across products
- Deeply embedded in restaurant operations, making the system difficult and disruptive to replace
- Payment volume growth compounds as locations are added and each location's sales grow
- Substantial remaining share to win in a large, fragmented restaurant market
- Personal loan credit performance is the key vulnerability if unemployment rises
- Lending remains a large share of revenue, so it is exposed to rate and credit cycles
- Competes for deposits against far larger banks with entrenched customer relationships
- Payment processing is lower margin than software, so overall gross margin is diluted by its dominance
- Restaurant closures and consumer spending weakness directly reduce payment volume
- Competes against established payment providers and other restaurant technology platforms
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