CRCL vs CME Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Circle Internet Group is a concentrated bet on stablecoin adoption and USDC's reserve-income economics, while CME Group is a diversified, established derivatives exchange with durable fee-based revenue across many asset classes, including growing crypto futures products. The comparison typically weighs a focused digital-dollar infrastructure story against diversified, all-weather exchange economics.
Use this CRCL vs CME comparison to separate concentrated stablecoin-infrastructure exposure from diversified derivatives exchange stability: Circle offers direct leverage to USDC adoption and interest-rate-sensitive reserve income, while CME Group offers a diversified exchange business that also touches crypto markets through regulated futures products.
CME holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CME leads on both 1-year return (+7.95%) and forward P/E quality (22.10x vs 55.13x for CRCL), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CRCL is growing revenue faster (6.60%), while CME maintains the higher operating margin (65.04%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CRCL (+17.76%) than for CME (-0.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe stablecoin adoption and on-chain dollar usage will keep growing
- Want direct exposure to USDC's reserve income and transaction volume
- Are comfortable with regulatory and interest-rate sensitivity in the business model
- See new infrastructure like the Arc mainnet as a future growth driver
- Prefer a diversified, all-weather derivatives exchange business model
- Value durable, fee-based revenue with strong margins across market cycles
- Want indirect crypto exposure through institutional futures and options products
- Seek lower volatility than a concentrated stablecoin infrastructure name
| Metric | CRCL | CME |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 27.6 | 46.5 |
| AI ranki | #2328 | #651 |
| Latest closei | $86.97 | $289.46 |
| 1M returni | +0.78% | +5.22% |
| 3M returni | +43.42% | +17.54% |
| 6M returni | -19.07% | -2.28% |
| 1Y returni | -35.33% | +7.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CRCL | CME |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.47K (-35.3%) started 2025-10-15 | $11.03K (+10.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $10.45K (+4.5%) started 2025-06-05 | $18.96K (+89.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $10.45K (+4.5%) started 2025-06-05 | $58.2K (+482.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CRCL | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $23.91B | $102.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.58 | 24.22 |
| Forward P/Ei | 55.13 | 22.10 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 15.75 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.23 | 15.44 |
| Analyst targeti | $103.29 | $283.07 |
| Target upsidei | +17.76% | -0.96% |
| Metric | CRCL | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.60% | 0.80% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 2.50% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +2.50% |
| FCF margini | +7.10% | +43.05% |
| Operating margini | 4.90% | 65.04% |
| Profit margini | 15.53% | 63.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | 15.35% | 15.80% |
| Return on equityi | 15.35% | 15.80% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 95.42% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | N/A | 0.27 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.45 | 14.59 |
| Current ratioi | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.03 | 0.02 |
Over the past year, CRCL and CME have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.00), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CRCL | CME |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -35.33% | +10.27% |
| CAGRi | -35.35% | +10.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 96.34% | 24.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.03 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.95% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.30% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.24% | 10.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 40.88% | 13.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.11% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.00% | 11.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +4.49% | +59.20% |
| CAGRi | +3.28% | +9.76% | |
| Volatilityi | 109.01% | 20.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.93% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.99% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 58.05% | 11.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 60.76% | 14.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.11% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.19% | 11.49% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +4.49% | +291.03% |
| CAGRi | +3.28% | +14.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 109.01% | 24.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.93% | 37.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.99% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 58.05% | 9.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 60.76% | 12.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.11% | 18.39% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.19% | 27.51% |
| Category | CRCL | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Circle Internet Group, Inc. | CME Group Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Capital Markets | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Circle Internet Group issues the USDC stablecoin and operates related blockchain payments and reserve-management infrastructure, monetizing primarily through interest income on USDC reserves and network/platform fees. | CME Group operates the largest derivatives exchange in the world, offering futures and options across interest rates, equity indices, energy, agriculture, and increasingly cryptocurrency products. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch USDC circulation and transaction volume growth, competitive pressure from other stablecoins, and Circle's expansion into new infrastructure like its Arc blockchain mainnet. | Investors watch CME's trading volume across its core rates, equity, and commodity franchises, growth in newer product lines including crypto futures, and its durable fee-based revenue model. |
- USDC leads global stablecoin transaction volume despite holding a smaller share of total stablecoins in circulation
- Reserve income model benefits from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment
- Expanding infrastructure, including the Arc mainnet launch and new payments network partnerships
- Dominant, diversified derivatives exchange franchise with deep liquidity across asset classes
- Highly durable, fee-based revenue model with strong margins and cash generation
- Growing cryptocurrency futures and options offerings capturing institutional crypto demand
- Stablecoin circulation growth has stalled at times amid intensifying competition
- Revenue is sensitive to prevailing interest rates on reserve assets
- Regulatory changes to stablecoin issuance and reserve requirements could reshape the competitive landscape
- Trading volume can soften during periods of low market volatility
- Regulatory scrutiny of exchange fee structures and market structure
- Competition from other derivatives exchanges and increasingly from crypto-native venues
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