MTB vs CFG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
M&T Bank and Citizens Financial are both Northeast-concentrated regional banks, with M&T known for a long history of conservative underwriting and successful acquisitions, while Citizens has been investing in private banking and wealth management expansion to diversify its revenue base.
M&T Bank offers a conservative underwriting culture with a long acquisition track record, while Citizens Financial offers a diversification story built around private banking and wealth management growth. Consider whether you prefer M&T's credit quality track record or Citizens' fee income diversification efforts.
CFG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CFG leads on both 1-year return (+24.98%) and forward P/E quality (10.68x vs 11.26x for MTB), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CFG is growing revenue faster (14.70%), while MTB maintains the higher operating margin (45.11%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CFG (+15.94%) than for MTB (+8.41%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a Northeast-concentrated regional bank with conservative underwriting
- Believe a long acquisition track record supports continued scale growth
- Value deep local market relationships across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic
- Are comfortable with concentrated commercial real estate exposure
- Want exposure to a regional bank diversifying into private banking and wealth management
- Believe fee income diversification will support long-term earnings stability
- Value a diversified footprint spanning Northeast and Midwest markets
- Are comfortable with net interest margin sensitivity to rate movements
| Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.1 | 54.5 |
| AI ranki | #413 | #294 |
| Latest closei | $227.31 | $67.04 |
| 1M returni | -7.05% | -5.26% |
| 6M returni | +15.83% | +17.51% |
| 1Y returni | +13.41% | +24.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.34K (+13.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.5K (+25.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $21.45K (+114.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $22.42K (+124.2%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $33.12K (+231.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $57.79K (+477.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $34.27B | $29.36B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.56 | 15.19 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.26 | 10.68 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.99 | 4.16 |
| Analyst targeti | $257.25 | $80.82 |
| Target upsidei | +8.41% | +15.94% |
| Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.20% | 14.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 25.50% | 41.30% |
| EPS growthi | +25.50% | +41.30% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 45.11% | 35.13% |
| Profit margini | 32.09% | 26.05% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.74% | 8.27% |
| Return on equityi | 10.74% | 8.27% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.53% | 2.62% |
| Payout ratioi | 31.76% | 39.22% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.57 | 1.01 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, MTB and CFG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.86), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +13.41% | +24.98% |
| CAGRi | +13.42% | +25.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.78% | 26.70% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | 0.80 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 1.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.55% | 18.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.54% | 10.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.81% | 4.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.45% | 6.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.47% | 6.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.24% | 8.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +90.21% | +87.07% |
| CAGRi | +13.74% | +13.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.00% | 33.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | 0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.71% | 56.19% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.54% | 10.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.07% | 20.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.65% | 26.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.89% | 13.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.44% | 24.82% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +151.80% | +288.07% |
| CAGRi | +9.68% | +14.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.77% | 38.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.45 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.97% | 65.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.54% | 10.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.44% | 18.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.56% | 24.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.89% | 21.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.38% | 34.36% |
| Category | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | M&T Bank Corporation | Citizens Financial Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | Banks - Regional |
| Core business | A regional bank holding company providing retail and commercial banking services concentrated primarily across the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States. | A regional bank holding company providing retail and commercial banking services primarily across the northeastern and midwestern United States. |
| Investor focus | Net interest margin trends, commercial real estate credit quality given its concentrated exposure, and expense discipline relative to revenue growth. | Net interest income trends, progress on private banking and wealth management expansion, and expense management relative to revenue growth. |
- Long history of conservative underwriting has historically supported relatively strong credit quality through cycles
- Concentrated Northeast and mid-Atlantic footprint provides deep local market relationships
- Track record of successful bank acquisitions has supported scale growth over time
- Diversified retail and commercial banking footprint spans multiple Northeast and Midwest markets
- Ongoing investment in private banking and wealth management aims to diversify fee income
- History of operational improvement initiatives has supported efficiency gains over time
- Commercial real estate exposure requires ongoing credit quality monitoring, particularly in office property segments
- Net interest margin is sensitive to interest rate movements and deposit competition
- Regional concentration means local economic conditions have an outsized effect on results
- Net interest margin is sensitive to interest rate movements and deposit competition
- Commercial real estate exposure requires ongoing credit quality monitoring
- Faces competition from both larger national banks and other regional banking peers in its core markets
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