MTB vs CFG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
M&T Bank and Citizens Financial are both Northeast-concentrated regional banks, with M&T known for a long history of conservative underwriting and successful acquisitions, while Citizens has been investing in private banking and wealth management expansion to diversify its revenue base.
M&T Bank offers a conservative underwriting culture with a long acquisition track record, while Citizens Financial offers a diversification story built around private banking and wealth management growth. Consider whether you prefer M&T's credit quality track record or Citizens' fee income diversification efforts.
CFG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CFG leads on both 1-year return (+26.19%) and forward P/E quality (10.68x vs 11.26x for MTB), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CFG is growing revenue faster (14.70%), while MTB maintains the higher operating margin (45.11%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CFG (+15.94%) than for MTB (+8.41%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a Northeast-concentrated regional bank with conservative underwriting
- Believe a long acquisition track record supports continued scale growth
- Value deep local market relationships across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic
- Are comfortable with concentrated commercial real estate exposure
- Want exposure to a regional bank diversifying into private banking and wealth management
- Believe fee income diversification will support long-term earnings stability
- Value a diversified footprint spanning Northeast and Midwest markets
- Are comfortable with net interest margin sensitivity to rate movements
| Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 43.2 | 54.3 |
| AI ranki | #881 | #279 |
| Latest closei | $222.07 | $64.37 |
| 1M returni | +1.34% | +0.06% |
| 3M returni | -12.25% | -12.64% |
| 6M returni | +3.06% | +0.02% |
| 1Y returni | +21.53% | +26.19% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.28K (+22.8%) started 2025-11-04 | $12.69K (+26.9%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $18.21K (+82.1%) started 2021-11-04 | $18.73K (+87.3%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $30.56K (+205.6%) started 2016-11-04 | $50.28K (+402.8%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $34.27B | $29.36B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.56 | 15.19 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.26 | 10.68 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.99 | 4.16 |
| Analyst targeti | $257.25 | $80.82 |
| Target upsidei | +8.41% | +15.94% |
| Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.20% | 14.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 25.50% | 41.30% |
| EPS growthi | +25.50% | +41.30% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 45.11% | 35.13% |
| Profit margini | 32.09% | 26.05% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.74% | 8.27% |
| Return on equityi | 10.74% | 8.27% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.53% | 2.62% |
| Payout ratioi | 31.71% | 37.17% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.57 | 1.01 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | N/A | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | N/A |
Over the past year, MTB and CFG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.86), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +22.76% | +26.89% |
| CAGRi | +22.81% | +26.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.16% | 25.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.88 | 0.90 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.27 | 1.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.55% | 18.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.60% | 13.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.07% | 5.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.14% | 7.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.47% | 5.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.24% | 7.91% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +61.44% | +57.74% |
| CAGRi | +10.05% | +9.54% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.57% | 33.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.46 | 0.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.71% | 56.19% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.60% | 13.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.37% | 20.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.79% | 26.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.89% | 13.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.44% | 24.82% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +132.30% | +239.74% |
| CAGRi | +8.80% | +13.01% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.78% | 38.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | 0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.97% | 65.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.60% | 13.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.62% | 19.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.64% | 24.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.89% | 21.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.38% | 34.36% |
| Category | MTB | CFG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | M&T Bank Corporation | Citizens Financial Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Banks - Regional | Banks - Regional |
| Core business | A regional bank holding company providing retail and commercial banking services concentrated primarily across the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States. | A regional bank holding company providing retail and commercial banking services primarily across the northeastern and midwestern United States. |
| Investor focus | Net interest margin trends, commercial real estate credit quality given its concentrated exposure, and expense discipline relative to revenue growth. | Net interest income trends, progress on private banking and wealth management expansion, and expense management relative to revenue growth. |
- Long history of conservative underwriting has historically supported relatively strong credit quality through cycles
- Concentrated Northeast and mid-Atlantic footprint provides deep local market relationships
- Track record of successful bank acquisitions has supported scale growth over time
- Diversified retail and commercial banking footprint spans multiple Northeast and Midwest markets
- Ongoing investment in private banking and wealth management aims to diversify fee income
- History of operational improvement initiatives has supported efficiency gains over time
- Commercial real estate exposure requires ongoing credit quality monitoring, particularly in office property segments
- Net interest margin is sensitive to interest rate movements and deposit competition
- Regional concentration means local economic conditions have an outsized effect on results
- Net interest margin is sensitive to interest rate movements and deposit competition
- Commercial real estate exposure requires ongoing credit quality monitoring
- Faces competition from both larger national banks and other regional banking peers in its core markets
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