TOST vs NU Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TOST and NU are both technology-led financial businesses in very different markets. Toast sells software and processes payments for US restaurants, so its growth depends on winning locations and on those restaurants doing business. Nu Holdings is a Latin American digital bank earning net interest income, so its growth depends on customers, cross-sell, and credit performance. The geographies, the customers, and the risks barely overlap.
Use this TOST vs NU comparison to compare growth quality rather than growth rate. Toast's revenue grows with payment volume and carries no meaningful credit risk but thin payment margins. Nu's revenue grows with lending and carries genuine credit risk, offset by a cost structure incumbents cannot match.
NU holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NU leads on both 1-year return (-15.12%) and forward P/E quality (13.43x vs 19.65x for TOST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NU leads on both revenue growth (52.10%) and operating margin (50.15%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NU (+21.96%) than for TOST (+14.35%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want US-based vertical software exposure with embedded payments
- Value high switching costs in a system running daily operations
- Prefer avoiding consumer credit risk entirely
- Accept payments-diluted gross margins and restaurant industry cyclicality
- Want emerging market digital banking growth at scale
- Believe the low cost to serve advantage is durable against incumbents
- Accept credit, macroeconomic, and currency risk in Latin America
- Value already being profitable while still expanding geographically
| Metric | TOST | NU |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 23.4 | 32.5 |
| AI ranki | #3578 | #2024 |
| Latest closei | $30.60 | $13.59 |
| 1M returni | -17.23% | -10.42% |
| 6M returni | +19.34% | -0.07% |
| 1Y returni | -18.47% | -15.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TOST | NU |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.3K (-17.0%) started 2025-09-25 | $8.61K (-13.9%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $5.57K (-44.3%) started 2021-09-27 | $13.16K (+31.6%) started 2021-12-09 |
| 10Y ago | $4.9K (-51.0%) started 2021-09-22 | $13.16K (+31.6%) started 2021-12-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TOST | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $19.68B | $74.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 43.09 | 21.10 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.65 | 13.43 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.64 | 7.18 |
| Analyst targeti | $38.92 | $18.78 |
| Target upsidei | +14.35% | +21.96% |
| Metric | TOST | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 23.10% | 52.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 100.00% | 66.30% |
| EPS growthi | +100.00% | +66.30% |
| FCF margini | +6.97% | N/A |
| Operating margini | 7.44% | 50.15% |
| Profit margini | 7.14% | 42.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | 25.16% | 31.63% |
| Return on equityi | 25.16% | 31.63% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.73 | 0.94 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 2.40 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 1.68 | N/A |
Over the past year, TOST and NU have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.26), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TOST | NU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -16.96% | -13.88% |
| CAGRi | -16.98% | -13.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.30% | 38.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.27 | -0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.36 | -0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.77% | 38.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.58% | 27.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.71% | 16.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.96% | 20.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.74% | 9.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.48% | 14.55% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -44.26% | +31.56% |
| CAGRi | -11.05% | +5.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 60.11% | 57.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.03 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.05 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.56% | 72.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.08% | 27.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.46% | 29.49% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 59.62% | 36.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.84% | 18.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.74% | 36.05% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -51.05% | +31.56% |
| CAGRi | -13.29% | +5.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 60.14% | 57.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.01 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.56% | 72.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.08% | 27.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.55% | 29.49% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 59.59% | 36.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.84% | 18.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.74% | 36.05% |
| Category | TOST | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Toast, Inc. | Nu Holdings Ltd. |
| Sector | Technology | Financial Services |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure | Banks - Regional |
| Core business | Integrated restaurant platform combining point-of-sale software and hardware with payment processing, payroll, online ordering, and merchant lending. Revenue is dominated by payment processing on customer transaction volume. | Operator of Nubank, a branchless digital bank in Brazil with a very large customer base, offering credit cards, deposits, lending, and investments, and expanding into Mexico and Colombia. |
| Investor focus | Net location adds, gross payment volume, subscription revenue per location, take rate, and profitability progress. | Active customer growth, revenue per active customer, net interest margin, credit quality, expansion market losses, and Brazilian rates and currency. |
- Software embedded in daily restaurant operations creates high switching costs
- Revenue compounds through both new locations and same-location sales growth
- Large fragmented addressable market still transitioning from legacy systems
- Structurally lower cost to serve than incumbent banks, improving further with scale
- Very large customer base with substantial cross-sell opportunity across products
- Profitable while still expanding into new countries
- Payments-heavy revenue mix keeps blended gross margin well below pure software levels
- Directly exposed to restaurant closures and discretionary consumer spending
- Competitive market with well-funded payment and restaurant technology rivals
- Unsecured consumer credit in emerging markets is vulnerable to macro deterioration
- Brazilian interest rates and currency swings affect dollar-reported results
- New market expansion consumes capital before contributing profit
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