COIN vs CME Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Coinbase is a concentrated, high-beta bet on cryptocurrency adoption and trading activity, while CME Group is a diversified, established derivatives exchange with a long track record of durable, fee-based revenue and its own growing crypto futures franchise. The comparison typically weighs direct crypto-cycle exposure against diversified, all-weather exchange economics.
Use this COIN vs CME comparison to separate concentrated crypto-cycle exposure from diversified derivatives exchange stability: Coinbase offers more direct leverage to cryptocurrency trading and adoption trends, while CME Group offers a diversified, durable exchange business that also participates in crypto growth through its futures products.
CME holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CME leads on both 1-year return (+7.95%) and forward P/E quality (22.10x vs 68.58x for COIN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CME leads on both revenue growth (0.80%) and operating margin (65.04%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COIN (+3.99%) than for CME (-0.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct, high-beta exposure to cryptocurrency trading and adoption trends
- Believe subscription and services revenue can reduce reliance on trading fee volatility
- Are comfortable with regulatory and crypto-market-cycle risk
- Seek leveraged upside during periods of rising crypto prices and volume
- Prefer a diversified, all-weather derivatives exchange business model
- Value durable, fee-based revenue with strong margins across market cycles
- Want indirect crypto exposure through institutional futures and options products
- Seek lower volatility than a pure-play cryptocurrency exchange
| Metric | COIN | CME |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.7 | 46.5 |
| AI ranki | #2767 | #651 |
| Latest closei | $183.81 | $289.46 |
| 1M returni | +6.80% | +5.22% |
| 3M returni | +14.53% | +17.54% |
| 6M returni | -8.01% | -2.28% |
| 1Y returni | -45.34% | +7.95% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COIN | CME |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.57K (-44.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.03K (+10.3%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $6.27K (-37.3%) started 2021-10-18 | $18.96K (+89.6%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $5.6K (-44.0%) started 2021-04-14 | $58.2K (+482.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COIN | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $51.25B | $102.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 24.22 |
| Forward P/Ei | 68.58 | 22.10 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 15.75 |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.13 | 15.44 |
| Analyst targeti | $202.00 | $283.07 |
| Target upsidei | +3.99% | -0.96% |
| Metric | COIN | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -17.30% | 0.80% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 2.50% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +2.50% |
| FCF margini | +44.15% | +43.05% |
| Operating margini | -13.92% | 65.04% |
| Profit margini | -16.34% | 63.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | -7.85% | 15.80% |
| Return on equityi | -7.85% | 15.80% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.82% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 95.42% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 3.39 | 0.27 |
| Debt/equityi | 50.98 | 14.59 |
| Current ratioi | 2.42 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.28 | 0.02 |
Over the past year, COIN and CME have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.04), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COIN | CME |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -44.34% | +10.27% |
| CAGRi | -44.40% | +10.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.15% | 24.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.52 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.78 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.96% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.14% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.54% | 10.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 45.81% | 13.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.34% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.64% | 11.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -37.34% | +59.20% |
| CAGRi | -8.93% | +9.76% | |
| Volatilityi | 86.82% | 20.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.41 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.90% | 33.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 56.21% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 52.92% | 11.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 58.10% | 14.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.40% | 5.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 58.72% | 11.49% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -44.01% | +291.03% |
| CAGRi | -10.00% | +14.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 84.48% | 24.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.90% | 37.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 56.21% | 11.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 50.47% | 9.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 55.95% | 12.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.40% | 18.39% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 58.72% | 27.51% |
| Category | COIN | CME |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Coinbase Global, Inc. | CME Group Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Coinbase operates a cryptocurrency trading platform and custody services for retail and institutional clients, alongside subscription and services revenue from products like staking and its USDC-linked offerings. | CME Group operates the largest derivatives exchange in the world, offering futures and options across interest rates, equity indices, energy, agriculture, and increasingly cryptocurrency products. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch Coinbase's trading volume sensitivity to crypto price cycles, growth in subscription and services (non-trading) revenue, and its regulatory positioning as crypto market structure rules evolve. | Investors watch CME's trading volume across its core rates, equity, and commodity franchises, growth in newer product lines including crypto futures, and its durable fee-based revenue model. |
- Leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange with strong institutional and retail brand trust
- Growing subscription and services revenue diversifying away from volatile trading fees
- Well-positioned regulatory relationships as U.S. crypto market structure legislation develops
- Dominant, diversified derivatives exchange franchise with deep liquidity across asset classes
- Highly durable, fee-based revenue model with strong margins and cash generation
- Growing cryptocurrency futures and options offerings capturing institutional crypto demand
- Trading revenue remains highly sensitive to cryptocurrency price volatility and volume cycles
- Regulatory and legal risk remains elevated relative to traditional financial exchanges
- Competitive pressure from other exchanges and decentralized trading venues
- Trading volume can soften during periods of low market volatility
- Regulatory scrutiny of exchange fee structures and market structure
- Competition from other derivatives exchanges and increasingly from crypto-native venues
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