TM vs TSLA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Toyota and Tesla represent two different approaches to the global auto industry's electrification transition, with Toyota pursuing a gradual, diversified strategy spanning gasoline, hybrid, and electric vehicles built on decades of manufacturing scale and reliability, while Tesla is a pure-play electric vehicle and clean energy company betting fully on electrification alongside growing investments in autonomous driving and robotics.
Toyota offers diversified, stable exposure to the gradual global auto industry transition with a strong hybrid vehicle bridge strategy, while Tesla offers concentrated exposure to full vehicle electrification along with optionality on autonomous driving and robotics at a premium valuation. Consider whether you prefer Toyota's diversified, gradual transition strategy or Tesla's pure-play EV and technology bet.
TM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-3.71% vs -14.01% for TSLA). On fundamentals, TSLA is growing revenue faster (25.50%), while TM maintains the higher operating margin (7.86%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TM (+19.43%) than for TSLA (+11.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure across gasoline, hybrid, and electric vehicles from the world's largest automaker by volume
- Value Toyota's long-standing reputation for reliability and manufacturing efficiency
- Believe hybrid vehicles will remain a profitable, important bridge technology during the industry's electrification transition
- Prefer a more gradual, lower-volatility approach to the auto industry's electrification shift
- Want concentrated, pure-play exposure to battery electric vehicles and the broader electrification transition
- Value Tesla's diversification into energy storage, solar, and autonomous driving software and robotics
- Believe Tesla's technology leadership and direct-to-consumer model provide durable competitive advantages
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for exposure to autonomous driving and robotics optionality
| Metric | TM | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.2 | 70.5 |
| AI ranki | #959 | #41 |
| Latest closei | $193.91 | $366.20 |
| 1M returni | +3.01% | +8.71% |
| 6M returni | -7.19% | -3.71% |
| 1Y returni | -3.71% | -14.01% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TM | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.63K (-3.7%) started 2025-09-17 | $8.78K (-12.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $13.44K (+34.4%) started 2021-09-17 | $15.05K (+50.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $28.73K (+187.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $266.21K (+2562.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TM | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $229.63B | $1.38T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 8.45 | 322.92 |
| Forward P/Ei | N/A | 161.56 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.00 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.68 | 13.03 |
| Analyst targeti | $231.58 | $390.09 |
| Target upsidei | +19.43% | +11.85% |
| Metric | TM | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.40% | 25.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 86.90% | -3.00% |
| EPS growthi | +86.90% | -3.00% |
| FCF margini | -6.93% | +4.67% |
| Operating margini | 7.86% | 1.41% |
| Profit margini | 8.63% | 3.67% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.40% | 4.67% |
| Return on equityi | 12.40% | 4.67% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.23% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 26.38% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.34 | 1.83 |
| Debt/equityi | 114.97 | 18.37 |
| Current ratioi | 1.17 | 1.94 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.95 | 1.35 |
Over the past year, TM and TSLA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.26), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TM | TSLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -3.71% | -12.15% |
| CAGRi | -3.71% | -12.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.49% | 46.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.18 | -0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.26 | -0.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.94% | 39.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.90% | 25.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.53% | 15.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.38% | 18.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.24% | 14.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.45% | 20.24% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +19.69% | +50.46% |
| CAGRi | +3.66% | +8.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.14% | 59.85% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.10 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.15 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.80% | 73.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.90% | 25.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.67% | 33.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.13% | 38.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.48% | 15.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.96% | 27.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +116.69% | +2562.11% |
| CAGRi | +8.05% | +38.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.69% | 59.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.26 | 0.77 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.38 | 1.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.80% | 73.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.90% | 25.25% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.09% | 25.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.63% | 30.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.62% | 21.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.96% | 43.05% |
| Category | TM | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Toyota Motor Corporation | Tesla, Inc. |
| Sector | Automotive | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Auto Manufacturers | Auto Manufacturers |
| Core business | The world's largest automaker by production volume, offering a broad, diversified lineup of gasoline, hybrid, and increasingly battery electric vehicles globally, with a long-standing reputation for reliability and manufacturing efficiency. | An electric vehicle manufacturer and clean energy company producing battery electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and solar products, with growing investments in autonomous driving software and robotics. |
| Investor focus | Global vehicle production and sales volume, hybrid vehicle mix trends, and gradual battery electric vehicle strategy execution. | Vehicle delivery growth, gross margin trends amid pricing competition, and progress on autonomous driving (FSD) and robotics initiatives. |
- Massive global manufacturing scale and diversified vehicle lineup spanning gasoline, hybrid, and electric powertrains
- Long-standing reputation for reliability and manufacturing efficiency built over decades
- Hybrid vehicle leadership provides a profitable bridge technology as the industry gradually transitions toward full electrification
- Pure-play focus on battery electric vehicles with strong brand recognition and technology leadership in the category
- Diversification into energy storage, solar, and increasingly autonomous driving software and robotics
- Direct-to-consumer sales model and vertically integrated manufacturing provide differentiated cost and margin potential
- More gradual battery electric vehicle strategy relative to pure-play EV makers like Tesla could mean slower positioning for a full EV future
- Massive scale creates less flexibility to pivot quickly compared to newer, more focused automakers
- Global operations expose results to currency translation and diverse regional regulatory requirements
- Premium valuation reflects high expectations for future growth in autonomous driving and robotics beyond core vehicle sales
- Facing increasing competition in the EV market from both traditional automakers and other EV-focused competitors
- Vehicle delivery growth and margins have shown more volatility than traditional automakers' more stable, diversified production
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