TSLA vs NIO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Tesla and NIO both compete in the global EV market, but from very different positions: Tesla is the established, profitable global EV leader with manufacturing scale across multiple continents and a growing software and energy business, while NIO is a smaller, China-focused premium EV maker still working toward sustained profitability, differentiated by its unique battery-swap technology.
Tesla offers scale, profitability, and diversification into software and energy storage, while NIO offers a higher-risk, higher-potential-reward bet on China's premium EV market and its differentiated battery-swap model. Consider whether you prefer Tesla's established global scale or NIO's more speculative, China-concentrated growth profile.
TSLA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TSLA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-15.21% vs -52.25%), though NIO has the better forward P/E setup (3.96x vs 161.56x for TSLA). On fundamentals, NIO is growing revenue faster (69.10%), while TSLA maintains the higher operating margin (1.41%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NIO (+86.15%) than for TSLA (+11.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the largest, most profitable global EV manufacturer with diversified energy and software ventures
- Believe full self-driving and robotaxi ambitions represent meaningful long-term optionality
- Prefer a company with an established manufacturing footprint across multiple continents
- Are comfortable with pricing competition pressuring near-term automotive margins
- Want concentrated exposure to China's premium EV market and its differentiated battery-swap technology
- Are comfortable with a company still working toward sustained GAAP profitability
- Believe NIO's brand and technology differentiation can help it stand out in a crowded domestic market
- Can tolerate higher volatility for potentially larger upside if NIO scales successfully
| Metric | TSLA | NIO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 71.2 | 26.2 |
| AI ranki | #34 | #2489 |
| Latest closei | $372.22 | $3.29 |
| 1M returni | -2.08% | -10.35% |
| 3M returni | +18.91% | -26.73% |
| 6M returni | -1.08% | -47.02% |
| 1Y returni | -15.21% | -52.25% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSLA | NIO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.29K (-17.1%) started 2025-10-23 | $4.78K (-52.2%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $10.9K (+9.0%) started 2021-10-25 | $797.19 (-92.0%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $275.36K (+2653.6%) started 2016-10-24 | $4.98K (-50.2%) started 2018-09-12 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSLA | NIO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.38T | $8.24B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 322.92 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 161.56 | 3.96 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 0.07 |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.03 | 0.04 |
| Analyst targeti | $390.09 | $6.12 |
| Target upsidei | +11.85% | +86.15% |
| Metric | TSLA | NIO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.50% | 69.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -3.00% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -3.00% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +4.67% | N/A |
| Operating margini | 1.41% | -1.08% |
| Profit margini | 3.67% | -4.17% |
| ROIC proxyi | 4.67% | -45.32% |
| Return on equityi | 4.67% | -45.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.83 | 0.92 |
| Debt/equityi | 18.37 | 203.22 |
| Current ratioi | 1.94 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.35 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, TSLA and NIO have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.24), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSLA | NIO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -17.10% | -52.25% |
| CAGRi | -17.12% | -52.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.01% | 49.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.29 | -1.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.40 | -1.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.10% | 55.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.02% | 55.66% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.01% | 31.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.09% | 33.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.52% | 7.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.24% | 14.75% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +8.96% | -92.03% |
| CAGRi | +1.73% | -39.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.68% | 70.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | -0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | -0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 92.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.02% | 92.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.41% | 77.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.21% | 79.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.43% | 17.07% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.20% | 29.90% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2653.65% | -50.15% |
| CAGRi | +39.33% | -8.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.57% | 84.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.78 | 0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.17 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 95.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 24.02% | 94.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.53% | 69.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.79% | 74.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.06% | 21.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 43.05% | 42.65% |
| Category | TSLA | NIO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Tesla, Inc. | NIO Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Auto Manufacturers | Auto Manufacturers |
| Core business | Designs and manufactures electric vehicles globally, alongside energy storage products, autonomous driving software (FSD), and emerging robotics ventures, with manufacturing scale across the US, China, and Europe. | Designs and manufactures premium electric vehicles in China, known for its battery-swap technology and subscription-based battery-as-a-service model, competing in the domestic Chinese premium EV segment. |
| Investor focus | Global vehicle delivery growth, full self-driving (FSD) software monetization, energy storage segment growth, and margin trends amid pricing competition. | Vehicle delivery growth, gross margin improvement trajectory, battery-swap network expansion, and path to sustained profitability. |
- Largest global EV manufacturer by volume with manufacturing scale across multiple continents
- Potential high-margin software revenue opportunity from full self-driving and robotaxi ambitions
- Diversified beyond automotive into energy storage and emerging robotics, providing multiple growth vectors
- Differentiated battery-swap technology offers a unique charging alternative to traditional EV charging
- Strong brand positioning in China's premium EV segment with a loyal early customer base
- Battery-as-a-service subscription model can lower upfront vehicle cost and create recurring revenue
- Intensifying price competition, particularly from Chinese EV makers, pressuring automotive gross margins
- Execution and regulatory risk around autonomous driving and robotaxi commercialization timelines
- Brand and demand sensitivity tied closely to CEO public profile and broader macroeconomic conditions
- Has not yet achieved sustained GAAP profitability, unlike Tesla, and continues to burn cash funding growth
- Intense competition within China's crowded EV market from both domestic and international players
- Smaller scale and narrower geographic footprint than Tesla's global manufacturing and delivery network
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