GPI vs PAG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GPI (Group 1 Automotive) and PAG (Penske Automotive Group) are both large publicly traded franchise auto dealership groups — Group 1 operates 200+ franchises primarily in the U.S. and UK with a broad brand mix, while Penske Automotive operates premium-brand-focused dealerships internationally plus commercial truck dealerships and holds a significant investment in Penske Transportation Solutions logistics, creating a more diversified mobility holding company.
GPI vs PAG is pure-play franchise dealership aggregator with geographic diversification in U.S. and UK (Group 1's broad OEM brand mix, acquisitive consolidation strategy, and fixed operations recurring revenue — auto cycle sensitivity and OEM EV strategy disruption risk) versus premium-brand dealership group with commercial vehicle and logistics diversification (Penske's luxury franchise concentration, PTS equity income from truck leasing, and international market presence — conglomerate valuation complexity and luxury consumer cycle sensitivity).
PAG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PAG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+33.49% vs -32.22%), though GPI has the better forward P/E setup (6.24x vs 15.12x for PAG). PAG leads on both revenue growth (6.00%) and operating margin (3.97%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GPI (+34.36%) than for PAG (-0.83%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a large-scale franchise auto dealership aggregator with a broad brand mix across U.S. and UK markets and an active acquisition strategy to build geographic density
- Value Group 1's fixed operations (parts and service) as a recurring, high-margin revenue stream that persists regardless of new vehicle sales cycles and benefits from the aging vehicle fleet
- Prefer a simpler, more focused franchise auto retail business vs. Penske Automotive's more complex conglomerate structure with automotive retail, commercial vehicles, and logistics investment
- Want premium/luxury auto dealership exposure with higher per-vehicle gross profit potential from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Lexus franchises combined with commercial truck and logistics diversification
- Value Penske Transportation Solutions' equity contribution as a logistics income stream that diversifies PAG's earnings beyond automotive retail cycles
- Believe PAG's international presence across U.S., UK, Germany, and Australia provides geographic diversification advantages vs. more domestically concentrated franchise auto dealers
| Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.2 | 47.2 |
| AI ranki | #1208 | #674 |
| Latest closei | $265.01 | $212.21 |
| 1M returni | +6.07% | +4.01% |
| 3M returni | -7.11% | -3.12% |
| 6M returni | -22.07% | +25.71% |
| 1Y returni | -32.22% | +33.49% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.82K (-31.8%) started 2025-11-03 | $13.55K (+35.5%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $14.3K (+43.0%) started 2021-11-04 | $19.18K (+91.8%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $55.6K (+456.0%) started 2016-11-04 | $49.04K (+390.4%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $3.29B | $13.94B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.43 | 14.93 |
| Forward P/Ei | 6.24 | 15.12 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.40 | 0.72 |
| Analyst targeti | $371.08 | $210.57 |
| Target upsidei | +34.36% | -0.83% |
| Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -5.60% | 6.00% |
| Earnings growthi | -20.10% | -1.70% |
| EPS growthi | -20.10% | -1.70% |
| FCF margini | +0.61% | +0.68% |
| Operating margini | 3.83% | 3.97% |
| Profit margini | 1.31% | 2.81% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.49% | 15.84% |
| Return on equityi | 9.49% | 15.84% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.82% | 2.75% |
| Payout ratioi | 6.83% | 41.11% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 5 yrs | N/A |
| Betai | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Debt/equityi | 195.67 | 160.65 |
| Current ratioi | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.20 | 0.17 |
Over the past year, GPI and PAG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.57), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -32.22% | +35.47% |
| CAGRi | -32.24% | +35.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.30% | 27.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.84 | 1.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.07 | 1.92 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.04% | 20.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.58% | 5.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.06% | 5.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.53% | 7.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.11% | 5.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.45% | 7.80% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +38.28% | +91.82% |
| CAGRi | +6.70% | +13.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.17% | 31.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.64% | 25.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 45.36% | 5.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.03% | 9.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.66% | 11.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.11% | 11.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.45% | 15.48% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +404.80% | +390.43% |
| CAGRi | +17.58% | +17.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.29% | 35.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.71 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.25% | 61.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 45.36% | 5.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.50% | 12.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.37% | 15.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.70% | 20.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 46.96% | 45.74% |
| Category | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | Penske Automotive Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Auto & Truck Dealerships | Auto & Truck Dealerships |
| Core business | Group 1 Automotive is one of the largest publicly traded franchise automobile dealership groups in the United States, operating approximately 200+ new vehicle franchises across domestic (U.S.) and international (UK) markets representing approximately 30+ automotive brands including Toyota, Honda, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai, and others. Group 1's revenue mix includes new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales, finance and insurance (F&I — arranging financing and selling extended warranties), fixed operations (parts and service repair — the highest-margin segment), and collision repair. Group 1 generates approximately $16-18 billion in annual net revenues. Group 1 has been an acquisitive dealership consolidator, purchasing groups of dealerships to build scale in specific geographic markets. | Penske Automotive Group is a diversified mobility company headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. PAG's business segments include: Retail Automotive (franchise car dealerships in the U.S. and premium/luxury international markets in the UK, Germany, and other European countries — representing 30+ OEM brands with emphasis on premium brands BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Porsche, Land Rover, Lexus); Retail Commercial Truck Dealerships (Penske Commercial Vehicles, selling and servicing commercial trucks — primarily Western Star and Mercedes-Benz trucks); and significant investment in Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS, a truck leasing and logistics joint venture with Mitsui). The PTS investment provides Penske Automotive with significant equity income from the truck leasing business that is separate from the dealership operations. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Group 1's same-store sales growth (comparing current year performance of same-store locations vs. prior year), gross profit per unit (new vehicles and used vehicles), fixed operations revenue growth, and F&I income per vehicle retailed. | Investors track PAG's automotive retail same-store sales and gross profit per unit, fixed operations growth, earnings contribution from the Penske Transportation Solutions investment, and capital return programs. |
- Fixed operations (parts and service) provide recurring high-margin revenue with favorable demographics — vehicle owners who purchased from Group 1 dealers return for service throughout the vehicle's life; aging vehicle fleet (average U.S. vehicle age 12+ years) increases repair demand; fixed operations margins of 35-50%+ are far superior to low-single-digit new vehicle margins
- Franchise agreements with major OEMs provide protected territories and exclusive representation — Group 1's franchise agreements with Toyota, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and others provide exclusive representation in specific geographic areas; competitors cannot open competing Toyota franchises within Group 1's protected territory; this territorial protection reduces direct competition
- UK operations provide geographic diversification — Group 1's UK dealership operations diversify revenue beyond U.S. auto market cycles and provide exposure to European automotive market dynamics
- Premium/luxury franchise concentration provides higher per-vehicle gross profit potential — PAG's emphasis on BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Lexus franchises provides higher per-unit gross profits (customers buying $70,000+ vehicles tend to buy extended warranties, premium service packages, and financing products at higher margins than economy car buyers)
- Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) equity investment provides logistics income diversification — PTS (truck leasing, logistics services) provides PAG with equity income from a business model that is less cyclically sensitive than new vehicle retail; PTS represents a significant portion of PAG's net income in some years
- International operations in UK, Germany, and Australia provide geographic diversification — PAG's diversified international presence across multiple automotive markets reduces dependence on any single country's automotive cycle
- Automotive retail is cyclically sensitive — new vehicle sales are highly correlated with consumer confidence, employment, and automotive financing availability; interest rate increases significantly reduce car affordability and new vehicle sales volumes
- OEM electric vehicle strategy affects franchise dealers — as OEMs transition to EVs, some (particularly Tesla, with direct sales, and Rivian, with an agency model) are challenging the traditional franchise dealer model; OEM pricing policies for EVs may differ from traditional ICE vehicles, affecting dealer profitability
- Vehicle affordability stress reduces new vehicle sales — new vehicle average transaction prices increased dramatically post-COVID ($48,000+ average in 2023-2024); at this price level with 6-7% car loan rates, monthly payments exceed many consumers' budgets
- Complex holding company structure (automotive retail + commercial vehicles + PTS logistics investment) creates valuation complexity — investors must value multiple businesses with different characteristics; this conglomerate complexity may result in a sum-of-parts discount
- Premium automotive franchise concentration creates susceptibility to luxury consumer spending softness — in recessions, luxury vehicle demand (BMW, Mercedes, Porsche) may decline more than mass-market vehicles as high-income consumers reduce discretionary spending
- Commercial vehicle exposure links PAG to trucking industry cycles — commercial truck sales are affected by freight market cycles; weak freight markets reduce fleet replacement demand for commercial trucks
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