GPI vs PAG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GPI (Group 1 Automotive) and PAG (Penske Automotive Group) are both large publicly traded franchise auto dealership groups — Group 1 operates 200+ franchises primarily in the U.S. and UK with a broad brand mix, while Penske Automotive operates premium-brand-focused dealerships internationally plus commercial truck dealerships and holds a significant investment in Penske Transportation Solutions logistics, creating a more diversified mobility holding company.
GPI vs PAG is pure-play franchise dealership aggregator with geographic diversification in U.S. and UK (Group 1's broad OEM brand mix, acquisitive consolidation strategy, and fixed operations recurring revenue — auto cycle sensitivity and OEM EV strategy disruption risk) versus premium-brand dealership group with commercial vehicle and logistics diversification (Penske's luxury franchise concentration, PTS equity income from truck leasing, and international market presence — conglomerate valuation complexity and luxury consumer cycle sensitivity).
GPI and PAG are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. PAG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+34.20% vs -30.02%), though GPI has the better forward P/E setup (6.41x vs 15.11x for PAG). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GPI (+37.72%) than for PAG (-5.46%).
- →Want exposure to a large-scale franchise auto dealership aggregator with a broad brand mix across U.S. and UK markets and an active acquisition strategy to build geographic density
- →Value Group 1's fixed operations (parts and service) as a recurring, high-margin revenue stream that persists regardless of new vehicle sales cycles and benefits from the aging vehicle fleet
- →Prefer a simpler, more focused franchise auto retail business vs. Penske Automotive's more complex conglomerate structure with automotive retail, commercial vehicles, and logistics investment
- →Want premium/luxury auto dealership exposure with higher per-vehicle gross profit potential from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Lexus franchises combined with commercial truck and logistics diversification
- →Value Penske Transportation Solutions' equity contribution as a logistics income stream that diversifies PAG's earnings beyond automotive retail cycles
- →Believe PAG's international presence across U.S., UK, Germany, and Australia provides geographic diversification advantages vs. more domestically concentrated franchise auto dealers
| Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.5 | 45.6 |
| AI rank | #1129 | #686 |
| Latest close | $286.77 | $217.31 |
| 1M return | +0.06% | +22.72% |
| 6M return | -20.76% | +41.13% |
| 1Y return | -30.02% | +34.20% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.04K (-29.6%) started 2025-07-31 | $13.88K (+38.8%) started 2025-07-31 |
| 5Y ago | $17.88K (+78.8%) started 2021-08-02 | $31.03K (+210.3%) started 2021-08-02 |
| 10Y ago | $55.38K (+453.8%) started 2016-08-01 | $93.8K (+838.0%) started 2016-08-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $3.48B | $14.28B |
| Trailing P/E | 12.09 | 15.81 |
| Forward P/E | 6.41 | 15.11 |
| Price/Sales | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| EV/Revenue | 0.41 | 0.73 |
| Analyst target | $402.33 | $205.63 |
| Target upside | +37.72% | -5.46% |
| Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -5.60% | 6.00% |
| Earnings growth | -19.70% | -1.70% |
| EPS growth | -19.70% | -1.70% |
| FCF margin | N/A | +0.68% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 1.31% | 2.81% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | 15.84% |
| Return on equity | N/A | 15.84% |
| Dividend yield | 0.77% | 2.65% |
| Beta | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Debt/equity | 197.63 | 160.65 |
| Current ratio | N/A | 0.97 |
| Quick ratio | N/A | 0.17 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -30.02% | +34.20% |
| CAGR | -30.04% | +34.22% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.87 | 1.04 | |
| Max drawdown | 41.03% | 24.03% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.11% | 5.22% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.33% | 7.80% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +72.90% | +173.06% |
| CAGR | +11.59% | +22.28% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.36 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdown | 41.03% | 24.03% | |
| Max daily drop | 17.11% | 11.79% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.11% | 15.48% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +401.84% | +603.87% |
| CAGR | +17.51% | +21.56% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdown | 70.25% | 59.98% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.70% | 20.61% | |
| Max wkly drop | 46.96% | 45.74% |
| Category | GPI | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | Penske Automotive Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary - Franchise Auto Dealerships | Consumer Discretionary - Franchise Auto Dealerships and Commercial Vehicles |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Group 1 Automotive is one of the largest publicly traded franchise automobile dealership groups in the United States, operating approximately 200+ new vehicle franchises across domestic (U.S.) and international (UK) markets representing approximately 30+ automotive brands including Toyota, Honda, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai, and others. Group 1's revenue mix includes new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales, finance and insurance (F&I — arranging financing and selling extended warranties), fixed operations (parts and service repair — the highest-margin segment), and collision repair. Group 1 generates approximately $16-18 billion in annual net revenues. Group 1 has been an acquisitive dealership consolidator, purchasing groups of dealerships to build scale in specific geographic markets. | Penske Automotive Group is a diversified mobility company headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. PAG's business segments include: Retail Automotive (franchise car dealerships in the U.S. and premium/luxury international markets in the UK, Germany, and other European countries — representing 30+ OEM brands with emphasis on premium brands BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Porsche, Land Rover, Lexus); Retail Commercial Truck Dealerships (Penske Commercial Vehicles, selling and servicing commercial trucks — primarily Western Star and Mercedes-Benz trucks); and significant investment in Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS, a truck leasing and logistics joint venture with Mitsui). The PTS investment provides Penske Automotive with significant equity income from the truck leasing business that is separate from the dealership operations. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Group 1's same-store sales growth (comparing current year performance of same-store locations vs. prior year), gross profit per unit (new vehicles and used vehicles), fixed operations revenue growth, and F&I income per vehicle retailed. | Investors track PAG's automotive retail same-store sales and gross profit per unit, fixed operations growth, earnings contribution from the Penske Transportation Solutions investment, and capital return programs. |
- →Fixed operations (parts and service) provide recurring high-margin revenue with favorable demographics — vehicle owners who purchased from Group 1 dealers return for service throughout the vehicle's life; aging vehicle fleet (average U.S. vehicle age 12+ years) increases repair demand; fixed operations margins of 35-50%+ are far superior to low-single-digit new vehicle margins
- →Franchise agreements with major OEMs provide protected territories and exclusive representation — Group 1's franchise agreements with Toyota, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and others provide exclusive representation in specific geographic areas; competitors cannot open competing Toyota franchises within Group 1's protected territory; this territorial protection reduces direct competition
- →UK operations provide geographic diversification — Group 1's UK dealership operations diversify revenue beyond U.S. auto market cycles and provide exposure to European automotive market dynamics
- →Premium/luxury franchise concentration provides higher per-vehicle gross profit potential — PAG's emphasis on BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Lexus franchises provides higher per-unit gross profits (customers buying $70,000+ vehicles tend to buy extended warranties, premium service packages, and financing products at higher margins than economy car buyers)
- →Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) equity investment provides logistics income diversification — PTS (truck leasing, logistics services) provides PAG with equity income from a business model that is less cyclically sensitive than new vehicle retail; PTS represents a significant portion of PAG's net income in some years
- →International operations in UK, Germany, and Australia provide geographic diversification — PAG's diversified international presence across multiple automotive markets reduces dependence on any single country's automotive cycle
- →Automotive retail is cyclically sensitive — new vehicle sales are highly correlated with consumer confidence, employment, and automotive financing availability; interest rate increases significantly reduce car affordability and new vehicle sales volumes
- →OEM electric vehicle strategy affects franchise dealers — as OEMs transition to EVs, some (particularly Tesla, with direct sales, and Rivian, with an agency model) are challenging the traditional franchise dealer model; OEM pricing policies for EVs may differ from traditional ICE vehicles, affecting dealer profitability
- →Vehicle affordability stress reduces new vehicle sales — new vehicle average transaction prices increased dramatically post-COVID ($48,000+ average in 2023-2024); at this price level with 6-7% car loan rates, monthly payments exceed many consumers' budgets
- →Complex holding company structure (automotive retail + commercial vehicles + PTS logistics investment) creates valuation complexity — investors must value multiple businesses with different characteristics; this conglomerate complexity may result in a sum-of-parts discount
- →Premium automotive franchise concentration creates susceptibility to luxury consumer spending softness — in recessions, luxury vehicle demand (BMW, Mercedes, Porsche) may decline more than mass-market vehicles as high-income consumers reduce discretionary spending
- →Commercial vehicle exposure links PAG to trucking industry cycles — commercial truck sales are affected by freight market cycles; weak freight markets reduce fleet replacement demand for commercial trucks
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