CAT vs EMR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CAT and EMR both sell into industrial capital spending but at different layers. Caterpillar sells the physical machines that move earth and generate power, with aftermarket service as its recurring layer. Emerson sells the control systems, instruments, and software that run process plants, with a growing recurring software component. Machines against the intelligence that operates plants.
Use this CAT vs EMR comparison to compare the quality of each recurring revenue stream. Caterpillar's comes from parts and service on machines, which is durable but tied to equipment in the field. Emerson's comes from installed control systems and software subscriptions, which is stickier still because replacing a plant's control layer is genuinely disruptive.
CAT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+74.88% vs +19.94%), though EMR has the better forward P/E setup (21.42x vs 24.75x for CAT). On fundamentals, CAT is growing revenue faster (24.00%), while EMR maintains the higher operating margin (26.92%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CAT (+21.91%) than for EMR (+10.72%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct exposure to construction, mining, and power generation demand
- Value the aftermarket parts and service cushion
- Prefer an established dividend growth and buyback record
- Accept pronounced cyclicality in equipment orders
- Want automation exposure with growing recurring software revenue
- Value the stickiness of installed process control systems
- Support the portfolio refocus toward automation
- Accept dependence on energy and chemical project spending plus software integration risk
| Metric | CAT | EMR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 68.2 | 51.9 |
| AI ranki | #48 | #374 |
| Latest closei | $821.58 | $158.23 |
| 1M returni | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 6M returni | +18.14% | +26.18% |
| 1Y returni | +74.88% | +19.94% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CAT | EMR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $17.72K (+77.2%) started 2025-09-25 | $12.16K (+21.6%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $47.69K (+376.9%) started 2021-09-27 | $19.24K (+92.4%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $154.1K (+1441.0%) started 2016-09-26 | $49.48K (+394.8%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CAT | EMR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $367.85B | $86.56B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 34.48 | 34.03 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.75 | 21.42 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.63 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.45 | 5.27 |
| Analyst targeti | $975.61 | $171.81 |
| Target upsidei | +21.91% | +10.72% |
| Metric | CAT | EMR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 24.00% | 7.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 68.20% | 23.00% |
| EPS growthi | +68.20% | +23.00% |
| FCF margini | +6.76% | +19.89% |
| Operating margini | 22.18% | 26.92% |
| Profit margini | 14.51% | 13.83% |
| ROIC proxyi | 56.97% | 12.80% |
| Return on equityi | 56.97% | 12.80% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.80% | 1.43% |
| Payout ratioi | 26.01% | 47.98% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.60 | 1.24 |
| Debt/equityi | 232.78 | 67.68 |
| Current ratioi | 1.37 | 0.90 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.78 | 0.62 |
Over the past year, CAT and EMR have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.58), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CAT | EMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +77.17% | +21.61% |
| CAGRi | +77.32% | +21.65% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.79% | 31.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.53 | 0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.41 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.83% | 23.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.85% | 3.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.35% | 8.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.01% | 9.98% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.91% | 6.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.99% | 8.22% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +342.07% | +77.10% |
| CAGRi | +34.66% | +12.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.75% | 27.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.96 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.45 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.05% | 29.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.85% | 3.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.76% | 8.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.68% | 10.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.64% | 8.65% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 15.00% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1126.52% | +285.20% |
| CAGRi | +28.50% | +14.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.47% | 29.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.19 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.36% | 50.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.85% | 3.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.69% | 9.23% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.93% | 11.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.28% | 18.96% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.36% | 28.66% |
| Category | CAT | EMR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Caterpillar Inc. | Emerson Electric Co. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| Core business | Manufacturer of construction and mining equipment and of engines, turbines, and generator sets, distributed through independent dealers who also supply parts and service. Includes a captive finance arm. | Industrial automation company focused on process and hybrid industries, providing control systems, measurement instruments, valves, and industrial software after reshaping its portfolio around automation and divesting consumer-facing businesses. |
| Investor focus | Construction and mining capital spending, dealer inventories, power generation demand, services revenue, and pricing versus costs. | Underlying orders and backlog, process automation project activity, software attach and recurring revenue, segment margins, and integration of acquired software assets. |
- Large installed base generating durable aftermarket parts and service revenue
- Exposure to power generation demand from data centers and industrial users
- Strong free cash flow with a long record of dividend growth and buybacks
- Installed control systems create long-lived customer relationships and recurring aftermarket demand
- Industrial software adds higher-margin recurring revenue to a hardware base
- Portfolio now focused on automation rather than spread across unrelated businesses
- Highly cyclical equipment demand linked to commodities and construction
- Dealer inventory swings obscure the underlying demand picture
- Exposed to tariffs, freight, and input cost inflation across a global footprint
- Large process automation projects depend on energy and chemical capital spending cycles
- Software acquisitions carry integration risk and were expensive
- Short-cycle discrete automation demand has been uneven
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