DHI vs TOL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
DHI and TOL occupy opposite ends of the homebuilding market. D.R. Horton is the volume leader in affordable housing, competing on scale and turnover while leaning on incentives to keep sales moving. Toll Brothers builds expensive homes for affluent buyers, earning better margins with less rate sensitivity but tied to wealth and equity markets. Scale and affordability against margin and affluence.
Use this DHI vs TOL comparison to pick the buyer you want exposure to. D.R. Horton's fortunes turn on affordability, which means mortgage rates, wages, and incentive costs. Toll Brothers' turn on affluent household confidence, which means equity markets and the ability to sell an existing high-value home.
TOL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TOL leads on both 1-year return (+0.10%) and forward P/E quality (10.00x vs 12.53x for DHI), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, DHI is growing revenue faster (0.00%), while TOL maintains the higher operating margin (14.56%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TOL (+22.15%) than for DHI (+10.53%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the largest-scale exposure to affordable housing demand
- Expect mortgage rate relief to unlock entry-level buyers
- Value strong free cash flow and consistent buybacks
- Accept thinner margins and heavy incentive use
- Prefer luxury homebuilding with higher margins
- Believe affluent demand is more resilient than entry-level demand
- Value build-to-order discipline and lower inventory risk
- Accept wealth-effect sensitivity and longer capital cycles
| Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.1 | 46.5 |
| AI ranki | #427 | #640 |
| Latest closei | $141.51 | $137.34 |
| 1M returni | -5.19% | -7.32% |
| 6M returni | +5.45% | +4.74% |
| 1Y returni | -15.49% | +0.10% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.58K (-14.2%) started 2025-09-25 | $10.17K (+1.7%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $17.48K (+74.8%) started 2021-09-27 | $22.66K (+126.6%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $57.75K (+477.5%) started 2016-09-26 | $46.92K (+369.2%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $41.23B | $12.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.05 | 11.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.53 | 10.00 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.41 | 1.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $162.92 | $171.87 |
| Target upsidei | +10.53% | +22.15% |
| Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 0.00% | -9.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -4.80% | -20.40% |
| EPS growthi | -4.80% | -20.40% |
| FCF margini | +7.24% | +5.18% |
| Operating margini | 12.99% | 14.56% |
| Profit margini | 9.15% | 11.14% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.63% | 14.39% |
| Return on equityi | 12.63% | 14.39% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.22% | 0.74% |
| Payout ratioi | 16.68% | 8.22% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.38 | 1.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 29.45 | 34.10 |
| Current ratioi | 6.01 | 4.50 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.42 | 0.41 |
Over the past year, DHI and TOL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.86), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -14.24% | +1.73% |
| CAGRi | -14.26% | +1.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.55% | 34.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.38 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.57 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.25% | 25.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.11% | 17.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.17% | 9.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.05% | 11.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.05% | 5.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.36% | 11.64% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +68.23% | +126.56% |
| CAGRi | +10.98% | +17.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.84% | 36.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.45% | 46.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.57% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.12% | 17.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.77% | 22.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.24% | 8.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.54% | 15.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +421.45% | +369.22% |
| CAGRi | +17.96% | +16.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.08% | 41.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.75 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.62% | 73.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.57% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.48% | 18.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.62% | 23.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.23% | 29.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.75% | 54.71% |
| Category | DHI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | D.R. Horton, Inc. | Toll Brothers, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Residential Construction | Residential Construction |
| Core business | Largest US homebuilder by volume, concentrated on affordable and entry-level homes across a wide geographic footprint, with a rental property segment and a stake in a land development company supplying finished lots. | Luxury homebuilder serving affluent move-up, empty-nester, and active-adult buyers at high price points, blending build-to-order homes with some speculative inventory in desirable markets. |
| Investor focus | Closings and net sales orders, gross margin after incentives, inventory turns, rental segment contribution, land pipeline, and buybacks. | Luxury order trends, gross margin and build-to-order mix, community count growth, land holdings, and buybacks. |
- Largest scale in the industry, giving cost advantages in labour, materials, and land
- Focus on affordability targets the deepest pool of housing demand
- Strong free cash flow and consistent share repurchases
- Wealthier buyers with less financing dependence dampen interest rate sensitivity
- High price points and options content drive strong gross margins
- Build-to-order reduces unsold inventory risk
- Entry-level demand is the most exposed to mortgage rates and affordability limits
- Sustaining volume requires significant incentives that reduce margin
- Rental segment adds asset exposure with different risk characteristics than homebuilding
- Luxury demand correlates with equity markets and household wealth
- Longer construction cycles hold capital for extended periods
- Lower volume makes results more sensitive to individual community outcomes
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