PHM vs TOL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PHM and TOL are both disciplined builders that decline to chase volume, but they serve different customers. PulteGroup spreads across first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers, so weakness in one segment can be offset by another. Toll Brothers concentrates on luxury, accepting narrower demand in exchange for higher margins and less financing sensitivity.
Use this PHM vs TOL comparison to compare two versions of the same discipline. Both prioritise profitability over growth, which historically produced good returns on capital. The difference is diversification: PulteGroup hedges across buyer segments, while Toll Brothers concentrates its bet on affluent households.
TOL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TOL leads on both 1-year return (+0.10%) and forward P/E quality (10.00x vs 11.43x for PHM), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. PHM leads on both revenue growth (-9.60%) and operating margin (15.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TOL (+22.15%) than for PHM (+10.35%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure across first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers
- Value explicit margin discipline and strong returns on equity
- Prefer a conservative balance sheet with steady buybacks
- Accept slower volume growth than aggressive peers
- Prefer concentrated luxury exposure with the highest margins
- Believe affluent demand is the most resilient segment
- Value build-to-order discipline
- Accept wealth-effect sensitivity and less diversification
| Metric | PHM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 58.3 | 46.5 |
| AI ranki | #173 | #640 |
| Latest closei | $119.85 | $137.34 |
| 1M returni | -7.83% | -7.32% |
| 6M returni | +4.55% | +4.74% |
| 1Y returni | -8.44% | +0.10% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PHM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.31K (-6.9%) started 2025-09-25 | $10.17K (+1.7%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $26.6K (+166.0%) started 2021-09-27 | $22.66K (+126.6%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $74.74K (+647.4%) started 2016-09-26 | $46.92K (+369.2%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PHM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $24.49B | $12.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 13.12 | 11.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.43 | 10.00 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $141.86 | $171.87 |
| Target upsidei | +10.35% | +22.15% |
| Metric | PHM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -9.60% | -9.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -18.20% | -20.40% |
| EPS growthi | -18.20% | -20.40% |
| FCF margini | +6.57% | +5.18% |
| Operating margini | 15.69% | 14.56% |
| Profit margini | 11.62% | 11.14% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.90% | 14.39% |
| Return on equityi | 14.90% | 14.39% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.81% | 0.74% |
| Payout ratioi | 10.21% | 8.22% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 19.07 | 34.10 |
| Current ratioi | 7.27 | 4.50 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.61 | 0.41 |
Over the past year, PHM and TOL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.89), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PHM | TOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -6.91% | +1.73% |
| CAGRi | -6.91% | +1.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.02% | 34.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.19 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.28 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.76% | 25.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.93% | 17.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.29% | 9.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.44% | 11.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.37% | 5.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.77% | 11.64% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +156.68% | +126.56% |
| CAGRi | +20.77% | +17.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.94% | 36.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.88 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.01% | 46.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.26% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.08% | 17.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.51% | 22.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.01% | 8.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.55% | 15.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +571.00% | +369.22% |
| CAGRi | +20.98% | +16.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.68% | 41.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 62.11% | 73.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.26% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.64% | 18.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.73% | 23.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.13% | 29.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 44.75% | 54.71% |
| Category | PHM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | PulteGroup, Inc. | Toll Brothers, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Residential Construction | Residential Construction |
| Core business | National homebuilder deliberately balanced across first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers through its Centex, Pulte, and Del Webb brands, with a stated preference for protecting margin over chasing volume. | Luxury homebuilder serving affluent move-up, empty-nester, and active-adult buyers at premium price points, combining build-to-order homes with selective speculative inventory. |
| Investor focus | Order mix across buyer groups, gross margin discipline, spec inventory levels, land spend, balance sheet strength, and buybacks. | Luxury order trends, gross margin and build-to-order mix, community count, land position, and buybacks. |
- Balanced buyer mix means no single segment's weakness dominates results
- Explicit margin-over-volume discipline has produced strong returns on equity
- Conservative balance sheet with substantial share repurchases
- Affluent buyers reduce dependence on mortgage financing
- Premium pricing and options revenue support high gross margins
- Build-to-order limits exposure to unsold finished homes
- Choosing margin over volume can mean slower growth than peers in strong markets
- First-time buyer exposure still carries affordability and rate sensitivity
- Active-adult demand depends on retirees' ability to sell existing homes
- Luxury demand tracks equity markets and household wealth
- Long build cycles tie up capital
- Lower volume amplifies the impact of individual community performance
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