NVR vs TOL Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare NVR's lot-option model against Toll Brothers' luxury move-up focus on margins, ROE, and buyer resilience.
Use this NVR vs Toll Brothers comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
TOL holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TOL leads on both 1-year return (-6.44%) and forward P/E quality (10.00x vs 15.30x for NVR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. TOL leads on both revenue growth (-9.70%) and operating margin (14.56%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TOL (+22.15%) than for NVR (+7.67%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | NVR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 44.8 | 46.7 |
| AI ranki | #800 | #704 |
| Latest closei | $6,299.56 | $134.23 |
| 1M returni | -0.13% | -9.47% |
| 6M returni | -4.06% | -5.58% |
| 1Y returni | -25.14% | -6.44% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.61K (-23.9%) started 2025-09-15 | $9.48K (-5.2%) started 2025-09-15 |
| 5Y ago | $12.54K (+25.4%) started 2021-09-16 | $22.17K (+121.7%) started 2021-09-15 |
| 10Y ago | $38.02K (+280.2%) started 2016-09-16 | $45.23K (+352.3%) started 2016-09-15 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $16.87B | $12.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 16.37 | 11.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.30 | 10.00 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.74 | 1.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $6,782.00 | $171.87 |
| Target upsidei | +7.67% | +22.15% |
| Metric | NVR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -10.90% | -9.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -22.60% | -20.40% |
| EPS growthi | -22.60% | -20.40% |
| FCF margini | +9.53% | +5.18% |
| Operating margini | 13.89% | 14.56% |
| Profit margini | 11.85% | 11.14% |
| ROIC proxyi | 31.54% | 14.39% |
| Return on equityi | 31.54% | 14.39% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.74% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 8.22% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.91 | 1.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 32.15 | 34.10 |
| Current ratioi | 5.67 | 4.50 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.75 | 0.41 |
Over the past year, NVR and TOL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.72), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVR | TOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -23.90% | -5.22% |
| CAGRi | -23.94% | -5.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.14% | 34.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.04 | -0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.41 | -0.18 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.79% | 25.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.90% | 19.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.04% | 8.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.91% | 10.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.27% | 5.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.99% | 11.64% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +25.39% | +121.72% |
| CAGRi | +4.63% | +17.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.92% | 36.36% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.14 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.20 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.94% | 46.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.52% | 20.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.58% | 17.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.61% | 22.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.27% | 8.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.40% | 15.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +280.18% | +352.26% |
| CAGRi | +14.29% | +16.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.24% | 41.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.64 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 46.13% | 73.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.52% | 20.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.63% | 18.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.24% | 23.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.55% | 29.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 39.43% | 54.71% |
| Category | NVR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVR | TOL |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Residential Construction | Residential Construction |
| Core business | NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. | Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. |
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