LEN vs TOL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
LEN and TOL build houses for different customers, which changes almost everything about how they behave. Lennar chases volume at accessible price points, so mortgage rates and affordability dominate its results and it uses incentives heavily to keep pace. Toll Brothers builds luxury homes for buyers who often pay cash or have less financing dependence, giving it better margins and less rate sensitivity but tying it to wealth effects.
Use this LEN vs TOL comparison to align with your view on mortgage rates. If rates fall, Lennar's affordability-constrained buyer pool expands quickly and incentive costs drop, which is powerful operating leverage. If rates stay high but equity markets hold up, Toll Brothers' affluent buyer base is far more resilient.
TOL holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TOL leads on both 1-year return (+0.10%) and forward P/E quality (10.00x vs 13.32x for LEN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, LEN is growing revenue faster (-5.20%), while TOL maintains the higher operating margin (14.56%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TOL (+22.15%) than for LEN (-0.11%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want scale exposure to entry-level and move-up housing demand
- Expect mortgage rates to fall, which disproportionately helps this segment
- Value the asset-light land strategy and strong cash generation
- Accept heavy incentive costs and margin pressure while affordability is stretched
- Prefer higher-margin luxury homebuilding with less financing dependence
- Believe affluent household demand is more durable than entry-level demand
- Value build-to-order discipline over volume
- Accept exposure to wealth effects and longer build cycles
| Metric | LEN | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.5 | 46.5 |
| AI ranki | #1143 | #640 |
| Latest closei | $82.15 | $137.34 |
| 1M returni | -5.74% | -7.32% |
| 6M returni | -8.98% | +4.74% |
| 1Y returni | -34.64% | +0.10% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LEN | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.62K (-33.8%) started 2025-09-25 | $10.17K (+1.7%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $9.25K (-7.5%) started 2021-09-27 | $22.66K (+126.6%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $22.47K (+124.7%) started 2016-09-26 | $46.92K (+369.2%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LEN | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $20.8B | $12.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 13.53 | 11.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.32 | 10.00 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.77 | 1.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $86.23 | $171.87 |
| Target upsidei | -0.11% | +22.15% |
| Metric | LEN | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -5.20% | -9.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -31.50% | -20.40% |
| EPS growthi | -31.50% | -20.40% |
| FCF margini | +3.29% | +5.18% |
| Operating margini | 5.28% | 14.56% |
| Profit margini | 4.93% | 11.14% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.37% | 14.39% |
| Return on equityi | 7.37% | 14.39% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.32% | 0.74% |
| Payout ratioi | 37.88% | 8.22% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.40 | 1.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 28.69 | 34.10 |
| Current ratioi | 8.51 | 4.50 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.20 | 0.41 |
Over the past year, LEN and TOL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.80), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LEN | TOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -33.76% | +1.73% |
| CAGRi | -33.80% | +1.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.25% | 34.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.04 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.47 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.59% | 25.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.29% | 17.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.54% | 9.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.89% | 11.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.95% | 5.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.53% | 11.64% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -11.25% | +126.56% |
| CAGRi | -2.36% | +17.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.13% | 36.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.02 | 0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.03 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.52% | 46.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 55.41% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.22% | 17.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.77% | 22.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.91% | 8.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.04% | 15.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +112.28% | +369.22% |
| CAGRi | +7.82% | +16.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.64% | 41.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.92% | 73.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 55.41% | 18.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.28% | 18.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.96% | 23.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.61% | 29.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 42.11% | 54.71% |
| Category | LEN | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lennar Corporation | Toll Brothers, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Residential Construction | Residential Construction |
| Core business | One of the largest US homebuilders by volume, building for entry-level and move-up buyers across many markets, with a strategy emphasising steady production pace and a lighter land balance sheet through land banking arrangements. | Luxury homebuilder focused on higher price points, serving affluent move-up, empty-nester, and active-adult buyers with a mix of build-to-order and speculative inventory across affluent markets. |
| Investor focus | Deliveries and orders pace, gross margin after incentives, mortgage rate buydown costs, land spend and asset-light progress, and buybacks. | Order growth at the luxury end, gross margin and the build-to-order versus spec mix, community count, land position, and buybacks. |
- Scale in purchasing, labour, and land access that smaller builders cannot match
- Asset-light land strategy reduces balance sheet risk in a downturn
- Volume focus keeps operations efficient and generates substantial cash flow
- Affluent buyers are less dependent on mortgage financing, softening rate sensitivity
- Higher price points and options revenue support stronger gross margins
- Build-to-order model reduces the risk of unsold finished inventory
- Entry-level buyers are the most sensitive to mortgage rates and affordability
- Maintaining pace requires incentives and rate buydowns that compress gross margin
- Heavy exposure to the most competitive, most affordability-constrained segment
- Luxury demand is tied to equity markets and household wealth, which can fall quickly
- Longer build cycles at higher price points tie up capital for longer
- Smaller volume means results are more sensitive to individual community performance
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