PHM vs MTH Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare PulteGroup and Meritage Homes by entry-level focus, energy-efficient build strategy, and margin trajectory.
Use this PulteGroup vs Meritage Homes comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
PHM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PHM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-13.25% vs -15.50%), though MTH has the better forward P/E setup (11.04x vs 11.43x for PHM). PHM leads on both revenue growth (-9.60%) and operating margin (15.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MTH (+22.27%) than for PHM (+10.35%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | PHM | MTH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 58.3 | 39.6 |
| AI ranki | #207 | #1226 |
| Latest closei | $118.94 | $64.88 |
| 1M returni | -8.63% | -11.22% |
| 6M returni | -2.64% | +2.61% |
| 1Y returni | -13.25% | -15.50% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PHM | MTH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.82K (-11.8%) started 2025-09-15 | $8.85K (-11.5%) started 2025-09-15 |
| 5Y ago | $26.62K (+166.2%) started 2021-09-16 | $14.42K (+44.2%) started 2021-09-14 |
| 10Y ago | $75.32K (+653.2%) started 2016-09-16 | $43.56K (+335.6%) started 2016-09-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PHM | MTH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $24.49B | $4.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 13.12 | 14.04 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.43 | 11.04 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.54 | 1.02 |
| Analyst targeti | $141.86 | $82.38 |
| Target upsidei | +10.35% | +22.27% |
| Metric | PHM | MTH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -9.60% | -13.80% |
| Earnings growthi | -18.20% | -32.80% |
| EPS growthi | -18.20% | -32.80% |
| FCF margini | +6.57% | +5.45% |
| Operating margini | 15.69% | 8.19% |
| Profit margini | 11.62% | 6.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.90% | 6.38% |
| Return on equityi | 14.90% | 6.38% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.81% | 2.85% |
| Payout ratioi | 10.21% | 37.92% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 2 yrs |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.36 |
| Debt/equityi | 19.07 | 37.71 |
| Current ratioi | 7.27 | 14.36 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.61 | 2.18 |
Over the past year, PHM and MTH have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.88), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PHM | MTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -11.79% | -13.73% |
| CAGRi | -11.82% | -13.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.78% | 37.68% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.36 | -0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.53 | -0.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.76% | 27.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.57% | 23.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.86% | 12.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.09% | 13.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.37% | 5.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.77% | 11.06% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +156.11% | +34.90% |
| CAGRi | +20.71% | +6.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.92% | 38.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.88 | 0.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.01% | 46.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.88% | 36.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.99% | 20.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.44% | 24.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.01% | 9.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.55% | 20.29% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +572.71% | +307.64% |
| CAGRi | +21.01% | +15.09% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.68% | 42.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 62.11% | 64.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.88% | 36.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.59% | 17.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.71% | 21.37% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.13% | 24.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 44.75% | 49.47% |
| Category | PHM | MTH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | PHM | MTH |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Residential Construction | Residential Construction |
| Core business | PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. | Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. |
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.