RKT vs UWM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Rocket Companies and UWM Holdings are both major mortgage originators, but Rocket Companies operates primarily through a direct-to-consumer model with servicing and adjacent product diversification, while UWM Holdings operates through the wholesale channel, originating loans through independent mortgage brokers.
RKT offers exposure to a diversified, direct-to-consumer mortgage and real estate services platform, while UWM offers exposure to a leading wholesale mortgage lender serving independent brokers. The decision depends on whether you prefer direct consumer branding and diversification or wholesale channel scale, with both tied closely to interest rate cycles.
RKT and UWM are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. UWM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+46.38% vs -21.36% for RKT).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a direct-to-consumer mortgage origination platform with strong brand recognition
- Value diversification into real estate services and personal finance products
- Believe a large mortgage servicing portfolio can help offset origination volume cyclicality
- Are comfortable with sensitivity to interest rate cycles affecting refinance and purchase volume
- Want exposure to a leading wholesale mortgage lender serving independent brokers
- Value a distinct distribution advantage within the wholesale broker channel
- Believe scale within the wholesale channel supports competitive operating efficiency
- Are comfortable with sensitivity to interest rate cycles and gain-on-sale margin competition
| Metric | RKT | UWM |
|---|---|---|
| ETF scorei | 27.6 | 27.2 |
| Latest closei | $14.06 | $64.45 |
| 1M returni | +1.44% | -3.13% |
| 6M returni | -10.22% | +28.24% |
| 1Y returni | -21.36% | +46.38% |
The ETF score weights long-term returns and risk-adjusted performance most heavily, but still rewards low expense ratios, larger fund size, and broader diversification — so it can favor low-cost, broad, mega-cap funds over smaller thematic or actively-managed funds even when the latter have delivered stronger returns.
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RKT | UWM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.34K (-26.6%) started 2025-09-04 | $14.79K (+47.9%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $8.24K (-17.6%) started 2021-09-07 | $11.93K (+19.3%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $6.54K (-34.6%) started 2020-08-06 | $29.79K (+197.9%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RKT | UWM |
|---|---|---|
| Expense ratioi | N/A | 0.95% |
| Total assets (AUM)i | N/A | $245.17M |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.83% |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 21.13 |
| Betai | 2.21 | 2.29 |
| 52-week change | -21.36% | 46.38% |
| Metric | RKT | UWM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y returni | -21.36% | +46.38% |
| 6M returni | -10.22% | +28.24% |
| 1M returni | +1.44% | -3.13% |
| 1Y Sharpe ratio | -0.32 | 1.09 |
| Betai | 2.21 | 2.29 |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.83% |
| 5Y CAGR | -3.80% | +2.89% |
Over the past year, RKT and UWM have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.55), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RKT | UWM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -26.58% | +46.38% |
| CAGRi | -26.61% | +46.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.69% | 37.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.32 | 1.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.46 | 1.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 47.31% | 22.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 40.02% | 6.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.20% | 4.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 29.93% | 6.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.67% | 7.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.81% | 9.12% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -17.58% | +15.31% |
| CAGRi | -3.80% | +2.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 54.84% | 44.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.12 | 0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.18 | 0.27 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.84% | 61.62% | |
| Current drawdowni | 40.02% | 6.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.14% | 35.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.13% | 39.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.35% | 12.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.32% | 24.06% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -34.64% | +183.67% |
| CAGRi | -6.76% | +11.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 64.44% | 46.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.13 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.20 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.90% | 71.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.20% | 6.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 63.85% | 25.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 65.63% | 31.82% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.67% | 26.58% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.73% | 44.58% |
| Category | RKT | UWM |
|---|---|---|
| Fund name | Rocket Companies, Inc. | ProShares Ultra Russell2000 |
| Type | ETF | ETF |
| Expense ratioi | N/A | 0.95% |
| Total assets (AUM)i | N/A | $245.17M |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.83% |
- Direct-to-consumer origination model and strong brand recognition support customer acquisition without reliance on third-party mortgage brokers
- Large mortgage servicing portfolio provides a source of recurring fee income that can partially offset origination volume cyclicality
- Diversification into real estate services and personal finance products creates additional avenues for customer lifetime value expansion
- Leading position in the wholesale mortgage channel provides a distinct distribution advantage among independent mortgage brokers
- Broker channel model can offer competitive pricing and speed advantages that appeal to brokers seeking efficient loan processing
- Established scale within the wholesale channel supports operating efficiency relative to smaller wholesale competitors
- Mortgage origination volume is highly sensitive to interest rate cycles, with refinance activity particularly affected by rate movements
- Faces competition from both wholesale mortgage lenders working through brokers and other direct-to-consumer origination platforms
- Housing market affordability and transaction volume trends directly affect the pace of purchase mortgage originations
- Mortgage origination volume is highly sensitive to interest rate cycles, with refinance activity particularly affected by rate movements
- Gain-on-sale margins can compress during periods of intense competitive pricing pressure within the wholesale channel
- Reliance on the independent mortgage broker channel makes growth dependent on broker relationships and channel dynamics rather than direct consumer branding
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