UNP vs UPS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
UNP and UPS are both freight networks with very different competitive structures. Union Pacific owns physical track that no competitor can duplicate, giving it durable pricing power in long-haul bulk freight. UPS operates a parcel network facing direct competition from other carriers and from customers building their own delivery capability, and is currently resizing its network and cutting costs.
Use this UNP vs UPS comparison to compare barriers to entry. A railroad's barrier is the physical right of way, which is effectively permanent. A parcel network's barrier is density and scale, which is real but has been eroded by a large customer building its own logistics. That difference explains much of the gap in pricing power.
UNP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. UNP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+18.85% vs +11.99%), though UPS has the better forward P/E setup (13.04x vs 21.72x for UNP). UNP leads on both revenue growth (11.50%) and operating margin (40.98%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UPS (+10.20%) than for UNP (+7.10%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want infrastructure with effectively permanent barriers to entry
- Value durable pricing power and consistent free cash flow
- Prefer steady dividends supported by strong margins
- Accept industrial and commodity volume cyclicality
- Believe cost reduction and network resizing will restore margins
- Want a high dividend yield relative to industrial peers
- See healthcare logistics as a genuine higher-value growth avenue
- Accept volume declines, labour cost pressure, and competitive parcel dynamics
| Metric | UNP | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.6 | 41.8 |
| AI ranki | #342 | #895 |
| Latest closei | $273.79 | $93.96 |
| 1M returni | -11.86% | -11.06% |
| 6M returni | +14.66% | -0.89% |
| 1Y returni | +18.85% | +11.99% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UNP | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.8K (+18.0%) started 2025-09-25 | $11.38K (+13.8%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $15.77K (+57.7%) started 2021-09-27 | $6.92K (-30.8%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $42.92K (+329.2%) started 2016-09-26 | $16.76K (+67.6%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UNP | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $182.62B | $89.61B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 24.87 | 19.58 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.72 | 13.04 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.51 | 0.92 |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.33 | 1.26 |
| Analyst targeti | $329.25 | $116.08 |
| Target upsidei | +7.10% | +10.20% |
| Metric | UNP | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.50% | 7.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 6.60% | -53.00% |
| EPS growthi | +6.60% | -53.00% |
| FCF margini | +18.58% | +6.18% |
| Operating margini | 40.98% | 9.05% |
| Profit margini | 28.85% | 5.08% |
| ROIC proxyi | 39.70% | 29.60% |
| Return on equityi | 39.70% | 29.60% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.85% | 6.23% |
| Payout ratioi | 44.70% | 121.93% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Debt/equityi | 150.77 | 189.90 |
| Current ratioi | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.76 | 1.05 |
Over the past year, UNP and UPS have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.38), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UNP | UPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +18.01% | +13.78% |
| CAGRi | +18.04% | +13.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.62% | 30.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.99 | 0.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.20% | 23.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.86% | 21.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.09% | 8.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.22% | 10.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.43% | 10.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.73% | 12.66% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +45.36% | -41.33% |
| CAGRi | +7.78% | -10.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.07% | 29.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | -0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | -0.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.83% | 58.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.86% | 53.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.36% | 31.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.86% | 35.37% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.80% | 14.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.20% | 18.40% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +250.32% | +17.37% |
| CAGRi | +13.36% | +1.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.37% | 28.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | 0.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.72% | 58.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.86% | 53.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.57% | 20.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.64% | 26.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.03% | 14.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.71% | 18.40% |
| Category | UNP | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Union Pacific Corporation | United Parcel Service, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Integrated Freight & Logistics |
| Core business | Largest western US railroad, hauling bulk commodities, industrial products, intermodal containers, and automotive freight across a network that cannot realistically be duplicated. | Global parcel delivery and logistics company operating an integrated air and ground network for domestic and international package delivery, supply chain services, and healthcare logistics. |
| Investor focus | Volume growth by commodity group, operating ratio and service metrics, pricing, fuel surcharges, and capital returns. | US domestic package volume and revenue per piece, network cost reductions and facility closures, healthcare logistics growth, margin recovery, and dividend coverage. |
- Owns irreplaceable rail infrastructure with only one comparable competitor in its territory
- Structural cost and fuel efficiency advantage over trucking for long-haul bulk freight
- Strong pricing power and consistent free cash flow supporting dividends and buybacks
- Dense integrated delivery network with broad reach that is expensive to replicate
- Revenue per piece improvements and cost reduction programmes can lift margins without volume growth
- Healthcare and specialised logistics offer higher-value growth than general parcel
- Volumes follow industrial production, housing, and commodity cycles
- Service disruptions draw regulatory attention and customer complaints
- Rail labour negotiations and work rules are periodically contentious
- Deliberately reducing volume from its largest customer shrinks revenue while the network is resized
- Unionised workforce with a contract that raised labour costs substantially
- Parcel demand is tied to consumer spending and e-commerce growth rates
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