URI vs CAT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
URI and CAT sit at different points in the same value chain. Caterpillar builds the equipment; United Rentals buys large quantities of it and rents it out. That makes URI a customer as well as an economic peer. Both depend on construction activity, but URI's economics turn on utilisation and rental rates while CAT's turn on unit volumes, pricing, and aftermarket service.
Use this URI vs CAT comparison to compare how each behaves when construction slows. United Rentals can stop buying fleet almost immediately, which makes free cash flow hold up better than earnings suggest, though used equipment values fall. Caterpillar sees orders and dealer restocking dry up, with aftermarket revenue providing the offset.
URI holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CAT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+74.88% vs +11.89%), though URI has the better forward P/E setup (17.69x vs 24.75x for CAT). On fundamentals, CAT is growing revenue faster (24.00%), while URI maintains the higher operating margin (25.99%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for URI (+25.19%) than for CAT (+21.91%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to non-residential construction activity without manufacturing risk
- Value scale advantages in fleet buying and branch density
- Like that fleet spending can be cut quickly to generate cash in a downturn
- Accept capital intensity, leverage, and used equipment price risk
- Want global exposure to construction, mining, and power generation
- Value aftermarket service revenue as a cyclical buffer
- Prefer a long dividend growth record and large buybacks
- Accept commodity-driven cyclicality and dealer inventory volatility
| Metric | URI | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 70.8 | 68.2 |
| AI ranki | #36 | #48 |
| Latest closei | $1,047.06 | $821.58 |
| 1M returni | -1.00% | -0.04% |
| 6M returni | +42.59% | +18.14% |
| 1Y returni | +11.89% | +74.88% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | URI | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.24K (+12.4%) started 2025-09-25 | $17.72K (+77.2%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $30.28K (+202.8%) started 2021-09-27 | $47.69K (+376.9%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $149.81K (+1398.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $154.1K (+1441.0%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | URI | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $63.11B | $367.85B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 24.39 | 34.48 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.69 | 24.75 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.95 | 2.63 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.66 | 5.45 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,269.33 | $975.61 |
| Target upsidei | +25.19% | +21.91% |
| Metric | URI | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.80% | 24.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 25.50% | 68.20% |
| EPS growthi | +25.50% | +68.20% |
| FCF margini | +10.14% | +6.76% |
| Operating margini | 25.99% | 22.18% |
| Profit margini | 15.67% | 14.51% |
| ROIC proxyi | 28.89% | 56.97% |
| Return on equityi | 28.89% | 56.97% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.78% | 0.80% |
| Payout ratioi | 18.09% | 26.01% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.79 | 1.60 |
| Debt/equityi | 166.79 | 232.78 |
| Current ratioi | 0.76 | 1.37 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.62 | 0.78 |
Over the past year, URI and CAT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.38), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | URI | CAT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +12.44% | +77.17% |
| CAGRi | +12.45% | +77.32% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.12% | 39.79% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.38 | 1.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 2.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.35% | 26.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.11% | 22.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.97% | 7.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.75% | 11.01% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.86% | 6.91% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.67% | 11.99% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +194.32% | +342.07% |
| CAGRi | +24.13% | +34.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.02% | 31.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.63 | 0.96 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 1.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.96% | 34.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.11% | 22.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.47% | 8.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.94% | 11.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.86% | 8.64% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.71% | 17.13% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1356.04% | +1126.52% |
| CAGRi | +30.72% | +28.50% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.22% | 31.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.74 | 0.81 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.11 | 1.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 63.26% | 43.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.11% | 22.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.40% | 10.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.03% | 13.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.54% | 14.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.54% | 24.36% |
| Category | URI | CAT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | United Rentals, Inc. | Caterpillar Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Rental & Leasing Services | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery |
| Core business | Largest equipment rental company in North America, renting general construction equipment and a growing range of specialty categories such as power, trench safety, and fluid solutions. Also sells used equipment from its fleet as it rotates. | Manufacturer of construction and mining equipment plus engines, turbines, and generator sets, sold through independent dealers who also provide parts and service. Includes a captive financing arm. |
| Investor focus | Fleet productivity and rental rates, time utilisation, specialty rental growth, used equipment pricing, capital expenditure discipline, and buybacks. | Dealer inventory levels, construction and mining capital spending, power generation demand, services revenue growth, and price versus cost. |
- Scale advantage in fleet purchasing, branch density, and serving large national contractors
- Specialty rental categories carry better rates and are less commoditised than general equipment
- Can cut fleet spending sharply in a downturn, which converts quickly into free cash flow
- Aftermarket parts and service revenue from a very large installed base cushions equipment cycles
- Energy and transportation exposure to data center and industrial power demand
- Consistent dividend growth and substantial buybacks
- Capital intensive, requiring constant fleet investment funded partly with debt
- Used equipment resale prices affect both earnings and the value of the fleet on the balance sheet
- Non-residential construction activity drives demand and is interest-rate sensitive
- Cyclical equipment demand tied to commodities and construction spending
- Dealer restocking and destocking distorts reported revenue versus real end demand
- Global manufacturing footprint exposed to tariffs and input costs
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