AEM vs KGC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AEM and KGC illustrate how much jurisdiction affects gold mining valuations. Agnico Eagle operates mainly in Canada and other stable countries with long-life assets, earning a premium multiple. Kinross has good assets but includes West African operations, so it trades cheaper. Both are ultimately leveraged to the gold price; the difference is the risk premium attached to where their ounces sit.
Use this AEM vs KGC comparison to decide whether you are paid enough for jurisdiction risk. Kinross' discount is not arbitrary, it reflects real political and security exposure. Agnico's premium is also not arbitrary, it reflects long-life assets in countries where permits and tax regimes are predictable. Which is better value depends on whether you think the gap is too wide.
KGC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AEM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+22.70% vs +6.38%), though KGC has the better forward P/E setup (9.78x vs 16.04x for AEM). AEM leads on both revenue growth (35.00%) and operating margin (58.10%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KGC (+20.07%) than for AEM (+7.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want gold exposure concentrated in the safest mining jurisdictions
- Value long reserve lives at large flagship Canadian assets
- Prefer a consistent dividend and strong free cash flow
- Accept a premium valuation and incremental rather than transformational growth
- Want gold exposure at a lower valuation multiple
- Believe the jurisdiction discount is wider than the risk warrants
- Value demonstrated cost discipline and free cash flow focus
- Accept West African political and security exposure
| Metric | AEM | KGC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.1 | 63.3 |
| AI ranki | #267 | #98 |
| Latest closei | $194.48 | $25.05 |
| 1M returni | -8.94% | -22.49% |
| 6M returni | +1.03% | -12.60% |
| 1Y returni | +22.70% | +6.38% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AEM | KGC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.38K (+23.8%) started 2025-09-25 | $10.68K (+6.8%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $48.69K (+386.9%) started 2021-09-27 | $56.45K (+464.5%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $52.41K (+424.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $73.16K (+631.6%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AEM | KGC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $101.46B | $35.5B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.15 | 11.38 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.04 | 9.78 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.77 | 3.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $214.89 | $35.93 |
| Target upsidei | +7.25% | +20.07% |
| Metric | AEM | KGC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 35.00% | 29.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 49.40% | 64.80% |
| EPS growthi | +49.40% | +64.80% |
| FCF margini | +29.48% | +35.36% |
| Operating margini | 58.10% | 52.48% |
| Profit margini | 40.44% | 37.52% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.97% | 36.99% |
| Return on equityi | 22.97% | 36.99% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.92% | 0.54% |
| Payout ratioi | 14.55% | 5.51% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.67 | 1.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 1.12 | 7.73 |
| Current ratioi | 2.86 | 2.89 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.90 | 1.90 |
Over the past year, AEM and KGC have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.91), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AEM | KGC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +22.70% | +6.38% |
| CAGRi | +22.71% | +6.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.44% | 55.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.57 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.81 | 0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.80% | 40.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.52% | 33.94% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.78% | 16.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.07% | 20.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.61% | 13.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.33% | 16.61% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +331.61% | +416.57% |
| CAGRi | +34.02% | +38.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.20% | 45.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | 0.86 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.23 | 1.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.80% | 55.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.52% | 33.94% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.78% | 18.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.95% | 23.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.61% | 13.77% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.33% | 18.80% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +330.29% | +554.02% |
| CAGRi | +15.72% | +20.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.61% | 46.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 54.18% | 67.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.52% | 33.94% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.03% | 25.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.10% | 30.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.63% | 15.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.76% | 37.70% |
| Category | AEM | KGC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | Kinross Gold Corporation |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Gold | Gold |
| Core business | Senior gold producer operating almost entirely in politically stable jurisdictions, principally Canada, with additional operations in Australia, Finland, and Mexico. Its flagship Canadian assets include large long-life mines in Ontario and Quebec. | Mid-tier gold producer with mines in the Americas and West Africa, including Tasiast and Paracatu, plus an Ontario development project. Emphasises cost control and free cash flow over production growth. |
| Investor focus | All-in sustaining costs, production from flagship Canadian assets, reserve life and exploration results, free cash flow, and dividends. | All-in sustaining costs, free cash flow generation, development project progress, reserve replacement, and capital return. |
- Operations concentrated in the lowest-risk mining jurisdictions, which the market rewards with a premium multiple
- Long reserve lives at large flagship assets reduce the need for acquisitive growth
- Consistent dividend payer with strong free cash flow at prevailing gold prices
- Trades at a lower multiple than premium-jurisdiction peers
- Cost discipline has improved free cash flow generation materially
- Development pipeline offers organic growth potential
- Premium valuation means less upside from multiple expansion than cheaper peers
- Canadian cost inflation in labour and energy pressures margins
- Growth is largely organic and incremental rather than transformational
- West African exposure carries political and security risk the market discounts for
- Shorter average reserve life than the largest senior producers
- Fully exposed to gold price swings like any producer
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