CARR vs JCI Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Carrier Global is a more focused, pure-play HVAC and climate solutions company after shedding non-core segments, while Johnson Controls remains a broader building technology provider spanning HVAC, fire, security, and controls. Both have meaningful exposure to data center cooling demand tied to AI infrastructure growth, so the comparison often centers on focus and simplicity versus platform breadth.
Use this CARR vs JCI comparison to weigh a focused HVAC pure-play against a broader building technology platform: Carrier offers simplified exposure to climate and cooling demand, while Johnson Controls offers diversified building systems revenue including recurring service contracts, with both benefiting from data center cooling growth.
CARR holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. JCI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+33.22% vs -3.93%), though CARR has the better forward P/E setup (17.77x vs 23.14x for JCI). JCI leads on both revenue growth (9.30%) and operating margin (15.88%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CARR (+32.36%) than for JCI (+16.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want focused, pure-play exposure to global HVAC and climate solutions
- Believe data center and commercial cooling demand will keep growing with AI buildouts
- Value the simplified portfolio following recent divestitures
- Seek residential and commercial aftermarket revenue exposure
- Prefer a diversified building technology platform beyond HVAC alone
- Value recurring service and controls revenue tied to long-term building relationships
- Want exposure to fire, security, and automation alongside climate systems
- Believe operational streamlining can continue improving margins
| Metric | CARR | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 55.5 | 54.3 |
| AI ranki | #232 | #395 |
| Latest closei | $54.96 | $147.63 |
| 1M returni | -1.04% | +6.75% |
| 3M returni | -20.74% | +4.51% |
| 6M returni | -7.96% | +7.33% |
| 1Y returni | -3.93% | +33.22% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CARR | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.68K (-3.2%) started 2025-10-16 | $13.5K (+35.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $11.32K (+13.2%) started 2021-10-18 | $24.1K (+141.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $52.48K (+424.8%) started 2020-03-19 | $66.8K (+568.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CARR | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.46B | $84.56B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 41.99 | 40.00 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.77 | 23.14 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.71 | 3.74 |
| Analyst targeti | $77.82 | $163.11 |
| Target upsidei | +32.36% | +16.85% |
| Metric | CARR | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.90% | 9.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -11.80% | 15.30% |
| EPS growthi | -11.80% | +15.30% |
| FCF margini | +3.90% | +11.94% |
| Operating margini | 13.07% | 15.88% |
| Profit margini | 5.52% | 14.32% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.97% | 14.33% |
| Return on equityi | 8.97% | 14.33% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.63% | 1.15% |
| Payout ratioi | 67.39% | 45.20% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| Debt/equityi | 92.00 | 70.11 |
| Current ratioi | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.55 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, CARR and JCI have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.53), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CARR | JCI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -3.15% | +34.98% |
| CAGRi | -3.16% | +35.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.52% | 30.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.04 | 0.99 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | 1.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.11% | 12.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.68% | 7.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.14% | 4.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.81% | 5.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.45% | 6.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.01% | 9.37% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +7.32% | +121.78% |
| CAGRi | +1.42% | +17.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.25% | 29.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.07 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.09 | 0.77 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.75% | 42.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.90% | 7.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.59% | 13.99% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.64% | 18.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.61% | 9.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.11% | 17.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +389.81% | +364.95% |
| CAGRi | +27.33% | +16.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.26% | 28.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.71 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.10 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.82% | 46.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.90% | 7.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.79% | 12.37% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.68% | 16.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.75% | 13.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.32% | 24.61% |
| Category | CARR | JCI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Carrier Global Corporation | Johnson Controls International plc |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Building Products & Equipment | Building Products & Equipment |
| Core business | Carrier Global manufactures heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration systems for residential, commercial, and cold-chain customers worldwide, having refocused as a pure-play HVAC and climate company after divesting other segments. | Johnson Controls provides building automation, fire and security, and HVAC systems and services for commercial and industrial buildings, positioning itself around smart, connected building solutions including data center cooling. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch Carrier's data center and commercial cooling demand tied to AI infrastructure buildouts, residential HVAC replacement cycles, and margin improvement following its portfolio simplification. | Investors watch Johnson Controls' commercial building systems and services growth, its exposure to data center and mission-critical cooling demand, and margin expansion under ongoing portfolio and operational streamlining. |
- Pure-play HVAC focus following divestitures of fire, security, and other non-core segments
- Exposure to rising data center and commercial cooling demand tied to AI infrastructure growth
- Global residential and commercial HVAC brand strength and installed base for aftermarket revenue
- Diversified building technology portfolio spanning HVAC, fire, security, and controls
- Strong recurring service and controls revenue tied to commercial building relationships
- Growing data center and mission-critical cooling exposure tied to AI infrastructure demand
- Residential HVAC demand is sensitive to housing activity and consumer spending cycles
- Integration and execution risk tied to recent portfolio restructuring and acquisitions
- Competitive intensity from other global HVAC manufacturers, including Johnson Controls
- Complex multi-segment portfolio can make execution and margin consistency harder to track
- Commercial construction and capital spending cycles affect new equipment demand
- Competitive overlap with Carrier and other HVAC and building technology providers
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