LII vs CARR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Lennox is generally evaluated as a more focused North American residential HVAC manufacturer benefiting from refrigerant-driven replacement cycles, while Carrier Global is assessed as a larger, more globally diversified HVAC and building systems company with growing exposure to commercial cooling demand including data centers. Both benefit from HVAC replacement and efficiency upgrade trends but differ in geographic and end-market diversification. The choice depends on whether an investor wants concentrated North American residential exposure or broader global commercial diversification.
Carrier Global suits investors wanting broader global diversification and exposure to commercial and data center cooling demand, while Lennox offers a more focused, historically higher-margin bet on North American residential HVAC replacement cycles.
LII holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CARR has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-3.93% vs -31.97%), though LII has the better forward P/E setup (14.25x vs 17.77x for CARR). On fundamentals, CARR is growing revenue faster (3.90%), while LII maintains the higher operating margin (22.86%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LII (+36.65%) than for CARR (+32.36%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want focused exposure to North American residential HVAC replacement demand
- Value a strong track record of margin expansion
- Believe refrigerant transition rules will support equipment upgrade cycles
- Prefer a more concentrated, less globally diversified industrial name
- Want global diversification across residential, commercial, and refrigeration markets
- Believe in growing data center cooling demand tied to AI infrastructure
- Value ongoing portfolio simplification efforts
- Can tolerate broader global economic cycle exposure
| Metric | LII | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 37.7 | 55.5 |
| AI ranki | #1366 | #232 |
| Latest closei | $358.50 | $54.96 |
| 1M returni | -1.02% | -1.04% |
| 3M returni | -35.82% | -20.74% |
| 6M returni | -25.19% | -7.96% |
| 1Y returni | -31.97% | -3.93% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LII | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.84K (-31.6%) started 2025-10-16 | $9.68K (-3.2%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $12.51K (+25.1%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.32K (+13.2%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $28.46K (+184.6%) started 2016-10-17 | $52.48K (+424.8%) started 2020-03-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LII | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $12.93B | $48.46B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 16.61 | 41.99 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.25 | 17.77 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.83 | 2.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $511.15 | $77.82 |
| Target upsidei | +36.65% | +32.36% |
| Metric | LII | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.00% | 3.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 0.10% | -11.80% |
| EPS growthi | +0.10% | -11.80% |
| FCF margini | +5.24% | +3.90% |
| Operating margini | 22.86% | 13.07% |
| Profit margini | 14.87% | 5.52% |
| ROIC proxyi | 71.76% | 8.97% |
| Return on equityi | 71.76% | 8.97% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.44% | 1.63% |
| Payout ratioi | 23.19% | 67.39% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.20 | 1.31 |
| Debt/equityi | 156.08 | 92.00 |
| Current ratioi | 1.57 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.67 | 0.55 |
Over the past year, LII and CARR have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LII | CARR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -31.58% | -3.15% |
| CAGRi | -31.62% | -3.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.52% | 35.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.84 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.03 | -0.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.12% | 29.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.43% | 27.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.32% | 11.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.11% | 13.81% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.97% | 9.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.15% | 12.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +19.62% | +7.32% |
| CAGRi | +3.65% | +1.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.71% | 32.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.14 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.20 | 0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.37% | 39.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.94% | 32.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.82% | 17.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.11% | 20.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.97% | 10.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.15% | 17.11% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +155.78% | +389.81% |
| CAGRi | +9.85% | +27.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.38% | 37.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.71 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.44 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.37% | 40.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.94% | 32.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.60% | 14.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.30% | 18.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.97% | 12.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.15% | 17.32% |
| Category | LII | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lennox International Inc. | Carrier Global Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Building Products & Equipment | Building Products & Equipment |
| Core business | Lennox designs and manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment for residential and light commercial customers, primarily in North America. | Carrier Global provides HVAC, refrigeration, and fire and security systems globally, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch residential HVAC replacement demand, pricing tied to refrigerant transition requirements, and margin performance in its Home Comfort Solutions segment. | Investors watch global commercial HVAC demand including data center cooling, portfolio simplification following recent divestitures, and margin improvement initiatives. |
- Strong brand and dealer network in the North American residential HVAC replacement market
- History of consistent margin expansion and disciplined capital allocation
- Benefits from mandatory refrigerant transition driving equipment replacement demand
- Global scale and diversification across residential, commercial, and refrigeration markets
- Growing exposure to data center cooling demand tied to AI infrastructure buildout
- Ongoing portfolio simplification aimed at higher-margin, core HVAC focus
- Concentrated exposure to North American residential housing and remodeling cycles
- Less geographic diversification than larger global HVAC competitors
- Input cost and tariff exposure on manufactured components
- Exposure to global economic cycles across multiple regions and end markets
- Integration and execution risk from portfolio restructuring and divestitures
- Competitive pressure in both residential and commercial HVAC markets
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