TT vs CARR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Trane Technologies is generally evaluated as a consistent execution story benefiting from data center and commercial cooling demand with a strong margin trajectory, while Carrier Global is assessed on its post-divestiture turnaround and ability to integrate recent portfolio changes. The comparison contrasts a steadier compounder against a company still proving out its streamlined strategy.
Use this comparison to weigh Trane's proven execution and data-center cooling exposure against Carrier's post-restructuring margin improvement and integration risk.
TT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+8.26% vs -3.93%), though CARR has the better forward P/E setup (17.77x vs 25.68x for TT). TT leads on both revenue growth (10.60%) and operating margin (19.25%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CARR (+32.36%) than for TT (+17.38%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to data center and commercial cooling demand growth
- Value a consistent track record of margin expansion
- Prefer a company with a large recurring service and aftermarket base
- Are comfortable with commercial construction cyclicality
- Believe the post-divestiture portfolio will keep improving margins
- Want exposure to global HVAC and cold chain refrigeration demand
- Are comfortable with integration risk from recent acquisitions
- See value in a more focused, streamlined industrial portfolio
| Metric | TT | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.2 | 55.5 |
| AI ranki | #107 | #232 |
| Latest closei | $457.36 | $54.96 |
| 1M returni | +8.19% | -1.04% |
| 3M returni | -3.71% | -20.74% |
| 6M returni | -0.63% | -7.96% |
| 1Y returni | +8.26% | -3.93% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TT | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11K (+10.0%) started 2025-10-16 | $9.68K (-3.2%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $28.74K (+187.4%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.32K (+13.2%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $121.03K (+1110.3%) started 2016-10-17 | $52.48K (+424.8%) started 2020-03-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TT | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $98.78B | $48.46B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 33.45 | 41.99 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.68 | 17.77 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.71 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.60 | 2.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $526.99 | $77.82 |
| Target upsidei | +17.38% | +32.36% |
| Metric | TT | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.60% | 3.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 7.10% | -11.80% |
| EPS growthi | +7.10% | -11.80% |
| FCF margini | +14.06% | +3.90% |
| Operating margini | 19.25% | 13.07% |
| Profit margini | 13.28% | 5.52% |
| ROIC proxyi | 36.64% | 8.97% |
| Return on equityi | 36.64% | 8.97% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.94% | 1.63% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.66% | 67.39% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.31 |
| Debt/equityi | 53.40 | 92.00 |
| Current ratioi | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.74 | 0.55 |
Over the past year, TT and CARR have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.65), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TT | CARR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +9.96% | -3.15% |
| CAGRi | +9.98% | -3.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.80% | 35.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.45 | -0.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.24% | 29.11% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.16% | 27.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.07% | 11.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.36% | 13.81% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.19% | 9.45% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.48% | 12.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +173.46% | +7.32% |
| CAGRi | +22.31% | +1.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.64% | 32.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.71 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.02 | 0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.76% | 39.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.16% | 32.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.61% | 17.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.36% | 20.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.40% | 10.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.01% | 17.11% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +940.43% | +389.81% |
| CAGRi | +26.40% | +27.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.48% | 37.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.83 | 0.71 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.21 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.53% | 40.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.16% | 32.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.79% | 14.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.55% | 18.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.94% | 12.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.84% | 17.32% |
| Category | TT | CARR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Trane Technologies plc | Carrier Global Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Building Products & Equipment | Building Products & Equipment |
| Core business | Trane Technologies designs and manufactures heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration systems for commercial, residential, and transport applications. | Carrier Global provides HVAC, refrigeration, and fire and security solutions globally, having refocused its portfolio after divesting non-core segments. |
| Investor focus | Investors track commercial HVAC bookings and backlog, data center cooling demand, and margin expansion from higher-efficiency product mix. | Investors watch post-divestiture margin improvement, residential and commercial HVAC demand, and progress integrating recent acquisitions. |
- Strong exposure to data center and commercial cooling demand
- Consistent track record of margin expansion and execution
- Large service and aftermarket revenue base providing recurring cash flow
- Streamlined portfolio focused on core climate and refrigeration businesses
- Global brand recognition in HVAC and cold chain refrigeration
- Ongoing cost synergy and margin improvement initiatives
- Cyclicality tied to commercial construction and capital spending
- Input cost and supply chain volatility affecting manufacturing margins
- Regulatory transitions around refrigerants requiring product transitions
- Integration execution risk from recent portfolio changes and acquisitions
- Exposure to residential construction cycles alongside commercial demand
- Leverage levels following acquisition-related spending
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