Data as of:
LIVE
CHGG
Chegg, Inc. · Technology - EdTech
$0.72
-12.20% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
DUOL
Duolingo, Inc. · Technology - EdTech & Language Learning
$149.42
+2.25% this month
Comparison scoreboard
DUOL LEADS 4/5AI Scorei
CHGG 24.5
DUOL ✓32.1
1Y Returni
CHGG -56.36%
DUOL ✓-48.64%
Fwd P/Ei
CHGG -10.29
DUOL ✓20.36
Target Up.i
CHGG ✓+287.73%
DUOL -13.67%
Op. Margini
CHGG -6.12%
DUOL ✓11.68%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/22/2026
Quick take
CHGG vs DUOL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CHGG (Chegg) and DUOL (Duolingo) represent two very different outcomes for edtech companies facing the AI revolution — Chegg's homework help service was directly substituted by ChatGPT (students don't need to pay for step-by-step solutions when AI provides them free), causing a severe subscriber and revenue decline, while Duolingo has successfully incorporated AI into its product, using it to enhance the learning experience rather than being replaced by it. The AI revolution has been an existential threat to Chegg and a product development accelerant for Duolingo.
CHGG vs DUOL is homework help platform directly disrupted by ChatGPT (Chegg's core Q&A and step-by-step solution service commoditized by free AI tools, requiring a fundamental business model rethink) versus gamified language learning app that embraced AI as a product enhancement (Duolingo's habit-forming streak system and community immune to AI substitution while AI conversation features make Duolingo MORE valuable) — AI victim versus AI beneficiary in edtech.
Live analysis · updated 9/22/2026
DUOL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DUOL leads on both 1-year return (-48.64%) and forward P/E quality (20.36x vs -10.29x for CHGG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. DUOL leads on both revenue growth (18.30%) and operating margin (11.68%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CHGG (+287.73%) than for DUOL (-13.67%).
Want a full valuation workup? 46-section report — AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, bull/bear case, DCF, and more.
Normalized 1Y performance
CHGG
DUOL
Recent returns
CHGG
DUOL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
CHGG · 6 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$2.00
analyst high$4.00
analyst mean$2.79
current price$0.72
+287.7% upside to analyst mean
DUOL
Price target range
analyst mean$134.29
current price$149.42
-13.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CHGG may suit investors who:
- Believe Chegg's Chegg Study AI pivot, remaining brand equity among college students, and valuable content library position it for a potential acquisition by a larger edtech or AI company at a premium to distressed valuations
- Are contrarian investors who see Chegg's post-disruption collapse as potentially overstating the permanent damage and believe some subscriber base remains interested in human-curated, verified academic help
- Want a heavily discounted distressed investment with option value on strategic alternatives — Chegg's depressed valuation may already price in the worst-case scenario, and any business recovery or M&A event could provide significant upside from current prices
DUOL may suit investors who:
- Want the clear beneficiary of AI in edtech — Duolingo's use of GPT-4 for Duolingo Max conversation features and personalized explanations improves the product rather than commoditizing it, attracting users to the premium tier
- Value Duolingo's gamification and habit formation as durable competitive moats that AI cannot replicate — the Duolingo streak, XP system, and learning community create social reinforcement mechanisms beyond content delivery
- Believe Duolingo English Test's growing university acceptance creates a secular revenue growth opportunity as an alternative to TOEFL/IELTS in the international student market
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CHGG | DUOL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.5 | 32.1 |
| AI ranki | #3097 | #2057 |
| Latest closei | $0.72 | $149.42 |
| 1M returni | -12.20% | +2.25% |
| 6M returni | +26.32% | +49.79% |
| 1Y returni | -56.36% | -48.64% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CHGG | DUOL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.91K (-60.9%) started 2025-09-22 | $4.83K (-51.7%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $96.68 (-99.0%) started 2021-09-21 | $7.4K (-26.0%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $998.61 (-90.0%) started 2016-09-21 | $11.13K (+11.3%) started 2021-07-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CHGG | DUOL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $79.94M | $7.25B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 18.39 |
| Forward P/Ei | -10.29 | 20.36 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.30 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.22 | 5.42 |
| Analyst targeti | $2.79 | $134.29 |
| Target upsidei | +287.73% | -13.67% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CHGG | DUOL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -50.70% | 18.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -27.50% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -27.50% |
| FCF margini | +18.85% | +26.22% |
| Operating margini | -6.12% | 11.68% |
| Profit margini | -19.96% | 35.88% |
| ROIC proxyi | -38.34% | 34.42% |
| Return on equityi | -38.34% | 34.42% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.16 | 0.88 |
| Debt/equityi | 42.76 | 6.11 |
| Current ratioi | 1.17 | 2.72 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.89 | 2.51 |
Correlation
Over the past year, CHGG and DUOL have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.16), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.16
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.20
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.20
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CHGG max drawdowni75.54%
DUOL max drawdowni74.07%
CHGG max wkly dropi34.72%
DUOL max wkly dropi28.24%
5Y risk snapshot
CHGG max drawdowni99.40%
DUOL max drawdowni83.35%
CHGG max wkly dropi50.96%
DUOL max wkly dropi31.98%
10Y risk snapshot
CHGG max drawdowni99.60%
DUOL max drawdowni83.35%
CHGG max wkly dropi50.96%
DUOL max wkly dropi31.98%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CHGG | DUOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -60.87% | -51.70% |
| CAGRi | -61.00% | -51.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 107.34% | 63.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.40 | -0.90 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.60 | -1.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.54% | 74.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 60.87% | 56.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 47.87% | 54.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 49.81% | 57.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.05% | 25.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.72% | 28.24% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -99.03% | -25.98% |
| CAGRi | -60.46% | -5.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 90.25% | 65.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.60 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.83 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 99.40% | 83.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 99.03% | 72.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 84.91% | 38.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 86.73% | 46.02% | |
| Max daily dropi | 48.82% | 25.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 50.96% | 31.98% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -90.01% | +11.30% |
| CAGRi | -20.58% | +2.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 72.02% | 66.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.01 | 0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 99.60% | 83.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 99.37% | 72.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 50.18% | 37.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 64.97% | 45.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 48.82% | 25.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 50.96% | 31.98% |
Business comparison
| Category | CHGG | DUOL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chegg, Inc. | Duolingo, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology - EdTech | Technology |
| Industry | Education & Training Services | Software - Application |
| Core business | Chegg provides academic support services to students — primarily Chegg Study (homework help, step-by-step textbook solutions, Q&A with subject experts) and Chegg Writing (plagiarism detection, citation generation). Chegg historically rented and sold physical and digital textbooks but has pivoted to a subscription services model. Chegg Study subscribers paid monthly for access to millions of solved problems and expert Q&A. Chegg has faced catastrophic subscriber decline since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. | Duolingo is the world's most popular language learning platform — with 500M+ registered users and 40M+ daily active users learning languages through gamified lessons on mobile. Duolingo monetizes through Duolingo Plus (Super) subscription removing ads and adding features ($13.99/month or $83.99/year), Duolingo English Test (a standardized English proficiency test accepted by thousands of universities as an alternative to TOEFL/IELTS), and advertising to free users. Duolingo has embraced AI — Duolingo Max (the premium tier powered by GPT-4) offers AI conversation practice, explanation features, and personalized learning. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Chegg's subscriber count decline rate, monetization of Chegg Study AI (an AI-powered version of its homework help service), revenue and earnings decline trajectory, and whether any strategic alternatives (acquisition, partnership) emerge to prevent further deterioration. | Investors track Duolingo's daily active users (DAU) growth (the primary engagement metric), paid subscriber growth (Duolingo Plus/Max), Duolingo English Test revenue, and operating leverage as DAU growth outpaces cost growth. |
CHGG strengths
- Established brand among college students for academic help — Chegg has 20+ years of brand awareness among U.S. college and high school students as the go-to source for homework help; this brand recognition has some residual value even as AI disruption intensifies
- Large existing content library of solved problems and expert Q&A — Chegg's database of millions of solved problems represents valuable training data and content that has been used to develop Chegg's AI Study tools
- Chegg Writing and related tools provide utility beyond homework answers — plagiarism detection, citation generation, and writing assistance tools have practical utility that may be more defensible than pure homework answer services
DUOL strengths
- Gamification and daily habit creation are Duolingo's competitive moat — Duolingo's streak system, XP, leaderboards, and character animations create addictive daily learning habits; building a language learning habit is a multi-year journey and users who build the Duolingo habit are highly retained
- AI enhances Duolingo's value proposition rather than commoditizing it — unlike Chegg (where AI replaces the service), Duolingo uses AI (GPT-4) to add conversation practice and personalized explanations that make the app more valuable; AI is a product enhancement, not a threat
- Duolingo English Test has a large and growing addressable market — the DET serves the international student market as a lower-cost, faster alternative to TOEFL/IELTS; as DET acceptance at universities grows, the test volume and revenue scales
Risks to watch — CHGG
- ChatGPT and AI directly disrupted Chegg's core business model — when ChatGPT launched in November 2022, students quickly discovered it could answer homework questions for free with better explanations than Chegg's subscription service; Chegg's CEO publicly acknowledged this disruption in May 2023, causing the stock to fall 48% in a single day
- Subscriber counts in freefall — Chegg went from approximately 7.8 million subscribers at peak to dramatically fewer as students abandoned paid subscriptions for free AI tools; this revenue decline may be permanent without a successful pivot
- Business model in existential question — if AI tools can answer homework questions better than Chegg for free, Chegg's core value proposition is eliminated; the company must find a new purpose or face continued decline
Risks to watch — DUOL
- Paid conversion rate from 500M registered to 7M+ paid users represents both opportunity and challenge — Duolingo's freemium model has excellent user acquisition but modest paid conversion; improving the percentage of DAUs who convert to paid subscription is the key profitability lever
- Language learning effectiveness for achieving fluency — research on language learning apps is mixed; Duolingo is effective for building vocabulary and basic reading/listening but may not develop conversational fluency in the same way as immersive or instruction-based learning; user disillusionment if learning goals aren't met could affect retention
- Competition from AI conversation tools (ChatGPT, Google Translate, Pimsleur) — AI tools that enable real-time translation and conversation in any language may reduce the perceived necessity of learning a language formally; why spend months on Duolingo when AI can translate in real-time?
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