MDB vs ORCL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MongoDB is typically evaluated as a modern, developer-focused database challenger still scaling toward consistent profitability, while Oracle is assessed as a legacy enterprise software giant whose growth narrative has shifted dramatically toward cloud infrastructure and large AI compute contracts. Both compete in database technology but operate at vastly different scales and with very different growth drivers. The choice depends on whether an investor wants a focused database modernization bet or broad exposure to Oracle's AI-driven cloud infrastructure buildout.
Oracle suits investors wanting exposure to large-scale AI cloud infrastructure buildout alongside a stable legacy software base, while MongoDB offers a more focused, higher-growth bet on modern database adoption with a smaller, less diversified revenue base.
ORCL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MDB has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+15.31% vs -55.71%), though ORCL has the better forward P/E setup (13.81x vs 48.16x for MDB). On fundamentals, MDB is growing revenue faster (25.20%), while ORCL maintains the higher operating margin (36.20%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ORCL (+61.83%) than for MDB (+21.62%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want focused exposure to modern, developer-first database adoption
- Believe in continued Atlas cloud revenue mix shift
- Can tolerate a less mature profitability profile
- Prefer a smaller, more growth-oriented software company
- Want exposure to large-scale AI cloud infrastructure buildout
- Value a stable legacy database and enterprise applications cash flow base
- Believe in continued growth of Oracle's cloud infrastructure backlog
- Can tolerate execution and financing risk from aggressive capital spending
| Metric | MDB | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 63.5 | 49.3 |
| AI ranki | #89 | #502 |
| Latest closei | $366.49 | $134.47 |
| 1M returni | -2.96% | -4.19% |
| 3M returni | +11.53% | +8.26% |
| 6M returni | +45.93% | -24.60% |
| 1Y returni | +15.31% | -55.71% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MDB | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.66K (+16.6%) started 2025-10-16 | $4.3K (-57.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $7.27K (-27.3%) started 2021-10-18 | $15.44K (+54.4%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $114.28K (+1042.8%) started 2017-10-19 | $46.12K (+361.2%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MDB | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $30.02B | $434.52B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 540.88 | 25.92 |
| Forward P/Ei | 48.16 | 13.81 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 8.75 |
| EV/Revenuei | 12.51 | 8.54 |
| Analyst targeti | $453.91 | $244.12 |
| Target upsidei | +21.62% | +61.83% |
| Metric | MDB | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.20% | 20.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 21.90% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +21.90% |
| FCF margini | +19.89% | -36.43% |
| Operating margini | -3.61% | 36.20% |
| Profit margini | -1.12% | 25.37% |
| ROIC proxyi | -0.97% | 53.38% |
| Return on equityi | -0.97% | 53.38% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.33% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 31.35% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.54 | 1.72 |
| Debt/equityi | 2.00 | 388.87 |
| Current ratioi | 4.95 | 1.11 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.55 | 1.01 |
Over the past year, MDB and ORCL have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MDB | ORCL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +16.59% | -57.04% |
| CAGRi | +16.62% | -57.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 70.30% | 57.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | -1.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.73 | -1.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.72% | 63.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.40% | 57.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.91% | 44.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.32% | 46.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.24% | 10.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.59% | 22.10% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -27.28% | +46.55% |
| CAGRi | -6.18% | +7.95% | |
| Volatilityi | 70.92% | 44.19% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.20 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.52% | 64.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.36% | 59.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.34% | 19.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 48.98% | 26.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.94% | 13.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.71% | 22.10% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1042.78% | +300.73% |
| CAGRi | +31.12% | +14.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 66.08% | 36.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.02 | 0.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.52% | 64.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.36% | 59.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.98% | 12.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.87% | 19.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.94% | 13.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.71% | 22.10% |
| Category | MDB | ORCL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MongoDB, Inc. | Oracle Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | MongoDB provides a document-oriented database platform, including its Atlas cloud database service, used by developers to build and scale modern applications. | Oracle provides enterprise database software, cloud infrastructure, and applications, with a rapidly growing cloud infrastructure business increasingly tied to large AI computing contracts. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch Atlas cloud revenue growth as a share of total revenue, customer expansion rates, and progress toward sustained profitability. | Investors watch Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue growth and backlog, large AI data center capacity contracts, and the durability of legacy database license and support revenue. |
- Atlas cloud database platform continues to grow as a share of total revenue
- Strong developer mindshare and flexible document database architecture
- Positioned as a modern alternative to legacy relational database systems
- Rapidly growing cloud infrastructure business with a large contracted AI compute backlog
- Deeply entrenched legacy database and enterprise applications business providing stable cash flow
- Large-scale capital investment in data center capacity to serve AI infrastructure demand
- Faces competition from cloud-native database offerings and from Oracle's own cloud database products
- Profitability remains a work in progress relative to Oracle's scale
- Growth deceleration risk as the company matures and market penetration increases
- Aggressive capital spending to build out cloud infrastructure capacity carries execution and financing risk
- Cloud infrastructure margins are lower than legacy software margins during the buildout phase
- Backlog conversion timing and customer concentration in large AI contracts create revenue lumpiness
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