MELI vs BABA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MercadoLibre is generally evaluated as a dominant regional e-commerce and fintech platform benefiting from underpenetrated digital commerce and financial services adoption across Latin America, while Alibaba is assessed as a much larger but more mature Chinese e-commerce and cloud conglomerate navigating intense domestic competition and geopolitical risk. Both offer exposure to emerging-market digital commerce but differ sharply in regulatory environment, growth stage, and competitive dynamics. The choice depends on whether an investor prefers Latin American growth exposure or China-focused e-commerce and cloud computing exposure.
MercadoLibre suits investors wanting exposure to earlier-stage e-commerce and fintech adoption growth in Latin America, while Alibaba offers larger scale and cloud computing optionality but requires comfort with Chinese regulatory and geopolitical risk.
BABA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MELI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-9.34% vs -32.40%), though BABA has the better forward P/E setup (1.79x vs 34.60x for MELI). On fundamentals, MELI is growing revenue faster (49.80%), while BABA maintains the higher operating margin (7.29%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BABA (+67.79%) than for MELI (+14.76%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to underpenetrated e-commerce and fintech adoption in Latin America
- Believe in Mercado Pago's continued fintech expansion
- Can tolerate Latin American currency and macroeconomic volatility
- Prefer avoiding direct China regulatory exposure
- Want exposure to China's massive e-commerce and cloud computing markets
- Believe in Alibaba Cloud's AI-driven growth reacceleration
- See value in Alibaba's diversified commerce and cloud business at current valuations
- Can tolerate Chinese regulatory and geopolitical risk
| Metric | MELI | BABA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 64.5 | 40.5 |
| AI ranki | #84 | #1061 |
| Latest closei | $1,856.98 | $111.13 |
| 1M returni | +1.53% | +1.64% |
| 3M returni | -0.02% | -5.41% |
| 6M returni | +1.91% | -19.08% |
| 1Y returni | -9.34% | -32.40% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MELI | BABA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.09K (-9.1%) started 2025-10-16 | $6.82K (-31.8%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $11.66K (+16.6%) started 2021-10-18 | $7.49K (-25.1%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $110.61K (+1006.1%) started 2016-10-17 | $12.23K (+22.3%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MELI | BABA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $99.68B | $276.46B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 53.47 | 26.91 |
| Forward P/Ei | 34.60 | 1.79 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.62 | 0.26 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.04 | 0.20 |
| Analyst targeti | $2,256.54 | $186.47 |
| Target upsidei | +14.76% | +67.79% |
| Metric | MELI | BABA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 49.80% | 8.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -10.90% | -79.40% |
| EPS growthi | -10.90% | -79.40% |
| FCF margini | +1.00% | -7.91% |
| Operating margini | 6.72% | 7.29% |
| Profit margini | 5.30% | 7.04% |
| ROIC proxyi | 27.50% | 6.36% |
| Return on equityi | 27.50% | 6.36% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.94% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 25.44% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | 2 yrs |
| Betai | 1.31 | 0.46 |
| Debt/equityi | 168.59 | 23.93 |
| Current ratioi | 1.12 | 1.36 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.40 | 0.72 |
Over the past year, MELI and BABA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.19), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MELI | BABA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -9.11% | -32.40% |
| CAGRi | -9.12% | -32.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.34% | 40.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.15 | -0.87 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.20 | -1.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.48% | 46.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.34% | 37.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.85% | 24.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.53% | 27.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.70% | 8.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.16% | 12.48% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +16.60% | -29.71% |
| CAGRi | +3.12% | -6.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 49.51% | 51.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.17% | 64.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.95% | 40.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.62% | 40.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.39% | 42.96% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.88% | 12.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.57% | 25.12% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1006.07% | +14.83% |
| CAGRi | +27.18% | +1.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.83% | 43.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | 0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.95 | 0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 69.12% | 80.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.95% | 62.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.19% | 39.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.03% | 48.65% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.88% | 13.34% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.57% | 25.12% |
| Category | MELI | BABA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MercadoLibre, Inc. | Alibaba Group Holding Limited |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Discretionary / E-Commerce & Cloud |
| Industry | Internet Retail | Internet Retail |
| Core business | MercadoLibre operates e-commerce marketplaces and a digital payments and financial services platform, Mercado Pago, across Latin America. | Alibaba operates e-commerce marketplaces, cloud computing services, and digital media businesses across China and internationally, including Taobao, Tmall, and Alibaba Cloud. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch e-commerce gross merchandise volume growth, Mercado Pago fintech adoption and credit portfolio performance, and logistics investment across its core markets of Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. | Investors watch domestic China e-commerce competition, Alibaba Cloud's AI-driven growth reacceleration, and the regulatory environment for Chinese technology companies. |
- Dominant e-commerce and payments platform across multiple large Latin American markets
- Rapidly growing fintech business with expanding credit and digital account adoption
- Strong logistics network investment improving delivery speed and customer retention
- Leading e-commerce platform scale in China's massive consumer market
- Alibaba Cloud positioned to benefit from AI infrastructure demand growth in China
- Diversified business spanning commerce, cloud, logistics, and digital media
- Exposure to currency volatility and macroeconomic instability across Latin American markets
- Credit risk in its expanding consumer and merchant lending business
- Competitive pressure from both regional and global e-commerce entrants
- Intensifying domestic e-commerce competition from PDD Holdings and other rivals
- Chinese regulatory risk and geopolitical tension affecting U.S.-listed Chinese equities
- Slower core commerce growth relative to newer, faster-growing domestic competitors
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