NEE vs XEL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NEE and XEL are both utilities investing heavily in clean generation, differing in how much of their earnings is regulated. NextEra pairs a large Florida utility with the biggest renewables development business in North America, giving it more growth and more sensitivity to policy and financing costs. Xcel is almost entirely regulated, delivering steadier growth with wildfire liability as its distinctive risk.
Use this NEE vs XEL comparison to decide how much non-regulated growth you want. NextEra's development arm is the source of its above-average growth and also its dependence on tax credits and capital costs. Xcel's regulated model offers predictable returns on invested capital, with the caveat that wildfire liability can be severe and is not fully within management's control.
NEE holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NEE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+3.05% vs -10.43%), though XEL has the better forward P/E setup (16.83x vs 18.65x for NEE). NEE leads on both revenue growth (12.40%) and operating margin (31.52%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +20.22% for NEE and +20.03% for XEL.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want utility stability plus above-average growth from renewables development
- Value the Florida utility's favourable demographics and regulation
- Believe the contracted development backlog will convert as planned
- Accept tax credit policy risk and sensitivity to financing costs
- Prefer almost entirely regulated earnings with predictable rate base growth
- Want clean energy transition exposure inside a regulated framework
- Value a steady dividend backed by a large capital plan
- Accept wildfire liability risk and multi-state regulatory dependence
| Metric | NEE | XEL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.3 | 41.0 |
| AI ranki | #411 | #992 |
| Latest closei | $76.08 | $69.80 |
| 1M returni | -9.67% | -10.14% |
| 6M returni | -16.76% | -10.62% |
| 1Y returni | +3.05% | -10.43% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NEE | XEL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.19K (+1.9%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.04K (-9.6%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $11.61K (+16.1%) started 2021-09-27 | $14.17K (+41.7%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $37.66K (+276.6%) started 2016-09-26 | $28.23K (+182.3%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NEE | XEL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $170.72B | $47.75B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.39 | 20.95 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.65 | 16.83 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.88 | 2.88 |
| EV/Revenuei | 10.07 | 5.98 |
| Analyst targeti | $98.39 | $91.76 |
| Target upsidei | +20.22% | +20.03% |
| Metric | NEE | XEL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.40% | -5.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 53.10% | 24.00% |
| EPS growthi | +53.10% | +24.00% |
| FCF margini | -61.91% | -54.11% |
| Operating margini | 31.52% | 22.70% |
| Profit margini | 32.40% | 15.28% |
| ROIC proxyi | 11.68% | 9.92% |
| Return on equityi | 11.68% | 9.92% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.05% | 3.10% |
| Payout ratioi | 53.47% | 63.70% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 161.68 | 173.13 |
| Current ratioi | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.35 | 0.48 |
Over the past year, NEE and XEL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.61), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NEE | XEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +1.92% | -9.64% |
| CAGRi | +1.92% | -9.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.33% | 18.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.02 | -0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.02 | -0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.74% | 17.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.27% | 16.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.42% | 5.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.33% | 6.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.63% | 3.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.96% | 6.28% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +5.72% | +25.67% |
| CAGRi | +1.12% | +4.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.88% | 20.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.01 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.01 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.97% | 34.41% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.27% | 16.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.73% | 9.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.66% | 12.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.97% | 8.64% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.71% | 16.52% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +197.89% | +110.09% |
| CAGRi | +11.54% | +7.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.46% | 21.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.38 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.97% | 34.41% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.27% | 16.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.45% | 7.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.34% | 10.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.42% | 12.69% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.36% | 24.25% |
| Category | NEE | XEL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NextEra Energy, Inc. | Xcel Energy Inc. |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Regulated Electric | Utilities - Regulated Electric |
| Core business | Owner of Florida Power & Light, one of the largest regulated US utilities, plus NextEra Energy Resources, the largest developer of wind, solar, and battery storage projects in North America selling power under long-term contracts. | Regulated electric and gas utility serving customers across Minnesota, Colorado, Texas, and neighbouring states, investing heavily in wind generation and transmission as it retires coal capacity. |
| Investor focus | Florida rate base growth and regulatory outcomes, renewables development backlog and signings, financing costs, tax credit policy, and dividend growth. | Rate base growth and regulatory recovery across multiple states, capital plan execution, wildfire liability exposure and mitigation, and dividend growth. |
- Florida utility benefits from population growth and a constructive regulatory environment
- Largest renewables developer with an enormous contracted backlog and scale advantages in procurement
- Combines regulated earnings stability with contracted growth from the competitive business
- Almost entirely regulated earnings, which are more predictable than competitive generation
- Large multi-year capital plan supporting steady rate base and earnings growth
- Leading wind generation position among regulated utilities
- Renewables development economics depend on tax credit policy, which is subject to political change
- Higher interest rates raise the cost of capital for capital-intensive project development
- Growth expectations are high, so any backlog or earnings shortfall is punished
- Wildfire liability exposure has become a material risk factor for utilities in dry regions
- Must obtain rate recovery from several state commissions, each with its own politics
- Heavy capital spending requires ongoing debt and equity financing
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