NVDA vs MSFT Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NVDA holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NVDA leads on both 1-year return (+28.70%) and forward P/E quality (14.21x vs 21.78x for MSFT), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for MSFT (+10.89%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 88.8 | 60.0 |
| AI ranki | #3 | #146 |
| Latest closei | $227.38 | $501.61 |
| 1M returni | +5.90% | +3.80% |
| 6M returni | +29.46% | +30.97% |
| 1Y returni | +28.70% | -3.15% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.38K (+23.8%) started 2025-09-22 | $9.75K (-2.5%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $101.52K (+915.2%) started 2021-09-23 | $17.83K (+78.3%) started 2021-09-23 |
| 10Y ago | $1.45M (+14369.7%) started 2016-09-23 | $109.25K (+992.5%) started 2016-09-23 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.25T | $3.81T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.47 | 28.58 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.21 | 21.78 |
| Price/Salesi | 23.66 | 11.87 |
| EV/Revenuei | 17.23 | 11.65 |
| Analyst targeti | $323.42 | $569.45 |
| Target upsidei | +48.66% | +10.89% |
| Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 105.90% | 17.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 127.80% | 31.70% |
| EPS growthi | +127.80% | +31.70% |
| FCF margini | +13.80% | +4.99% |
| Operating margini | 66.24% | 45.11% |
| Profit margini | 63.66% | 40.30% |
| ROIC proxyi | 117.21% | 34.04% |
| Return on equityi | 117.21% | 34.04% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.46% | 0.71% |
| Payout ratioi | 3.54% | 19.83% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.21 | 1.10 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.97 | 29.12 |
| Current ratioi | 4.59 | 1.23 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.92 | 1.10 |
Over the past year, NVDA and MSFT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.26), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +23.84% | -2.50% |
| CAGRi | +23.90% | -2.50% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.87% | 32.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.95 | -0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.22% | 34.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.55% | 7.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.05% | 17.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.21% | 19.81% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.20% | 9.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.72% | 14.43% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +913.29% | +72.77% |
| CAGRi | +58.96% | +11.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.04% | 28.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.07 | 0.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.65 | 0.55 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 37.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.55% | 7.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.77% | 12.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.22% | 15.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.97% | 9.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.20% | 14.43% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +14134.14% | +874.00% |
| CAGRi | +64.22% | +25.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.07% | 27.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.15 | 0.80 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.76 | 1.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 37.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.55% | 7.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.50% | 7.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.79% | 11.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.76% | 14.74% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.36% | 16.36% |
| Category | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVDA | MSFT |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. | Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. |
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