NVDA vs MSFT Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NVDA holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NVDA leads on both 1-year return (+6.28%) and forward P/E quality (14.21x vs 21.78x for MSFT), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for MSFT (+10.89%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 86.9 | 60.9 |
| AI ranki | #4 | #133 |
| Latest closei | $213.66 | $530.14 |
| 1M returni | -5.96% | +4.16% |
| 3M returni | +9.55% | +17.52% |
| 6M returni | +7.06% | +30.01% |
| 1Y returni | +6.28% | -2.20% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.32K (+3.2%) started 2025-10-29 | $9.79K (-2.1%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $83.04K (+730.4%) started 2021-11-01 | $17.14K (+71.4%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $1.24M (+12310.1%) started 2016-10-31 | $110.67K (+1006.7%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.25T | $3.81T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.47 | 28.58 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.21 | 21.78 |
| Price/Salesi | 23.66 | 11.87 |
| EV/Revenuei | 17.23 | 11.65 |
| Analyst targeti | $323.42 | $569.45 |
| Target upsidei | +48.66% | +10.89% |
| Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 105.90% | 17.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 127.80% | 31.70% |
| EPS growthi | +127.80% | +31.70% |
| FCF margini | +13.80% | +4.99% |
| Operating margini | 66.24% | 45.11% |
| Profit margini | 63.66% | 40.30% |
| ROIC proxyi | 117.21% | 34.04% |
| Return on equityi | 117.21% | 34.04% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.46% | 0.71% |
| Payout ratioi | 3.54% | 19.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.21 | 1.10 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.97 | 29.12 |
| Current ratioi | 4.59 | 1.23 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.92 | 1.10 |
Over the past year, NVDA and MSFT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +3.20% | -2.11% |
| CAGRi | +3.20% | -2.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.11% | 32.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.22 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.22% | 34.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.69% | 2.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.36% | 17.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.38% | 19.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.20% | 9.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.72% | 14.43% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +728.83% | +66.07% |
| CAGRi | +52.75% | +10.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.88% | 28.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.99 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.53 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 37.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.69% | 2.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.80% | 12.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.22% | 15.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.97% | 9.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.20% | 14.43% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +12108.03% | +886.62% |
| CAGRi | +61.73% | +25.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.07% | 27.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.12 | 0.80 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.71 | 1.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 37.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.69% | 2.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.53% | 7.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.79% | 11.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.76% | 14.74% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.36% | 16.36% |
| Category | NVDA | MSFT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVDA | MSFT |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Software - Infrastructure |
| Core business | NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. | Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. |
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