XOM vs EOG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
XOM and EOG are both high-quality US energy companies with different structures. Exxon is integrated and enormous, with Guyana giving it unusual growth for its size and refining and chemicals providing diversification. EOG is a disciplined pure-play shale producer with a famously strong balance sheet, an explicit returns hurdle on every well, and cleaner leverage to oil and gas prices.
Use this XOM vs EOG comparison to compare two different forms of discipline. Exxon's is capital allocation across an integrated portfolio through the cycle. EOG's is refusing to drill wells that fail a specific return threshold, which caps growth but protects returns. Both are conservative; the shapes of their exposure differ entirely.
EOG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XOM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+40.18% vs +20.27%), though EOG has the better forward P/E setup (9.95x vs 14.72x for XOM). EOG leads on both revenue growth (58.70%) and operating margin (40.72%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for EOG (+11.59%) than for XOM (+8.28%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want integrated exposure with refining and chemicals diversification
- Value Guyana's low-cost growth and overall financial strength
- Prefer a reliable, long-established dividend
- Accept weak chemicals margins and large project timelines
- Want disciplined pure-play shale exposure with clean commodity leverage
- Value a net cash balance sheet as downside protection
- Appreciate organic play discovery over expensive acquisitions
- Accept variable special dividends and direct commodity price sensitivity
| Metric | XOM | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.6 | 45.1 |
| AI ranki | #343 | #713 |
| Latest closei | $160.59 | $140.35 |
| 1M returni | +1.52% | -3.10% |
| 6M returni | -6.08% | -6.16% |
| 1Y returni | +40.18% | +20.27% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XOM | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.89K (+38.9%) started 2025-09-25 | $11.97K (+19.7%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $35.99K (+259.9%) started 2021-09-27 | $25.77K (+157.7%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $46.35K (+363.5%) started 2016-09-26 | $28.76K (+187.6%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XOM | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $644.38B | $75.19B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.17 | 11.16 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.72 | 9.95 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.32 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.89 | 2.94 |
| Analyst targeti | $169.68 | $159.96 |
| Target upsidei | +8.28% | +11.59% |
| Metric | XOM | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 44.10% | 58.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 112.80% | 109.40% |
| EPS growthi | +112.80% | +109.40% |
| FCF margini | +5.73% | +16.76% |
| Operating margini | 15.86% | 40.72% |
| Profit margini | 9.07% | 25.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.58% | 22.51% |
| Return on equityi | 12.58% | 22.51% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.63% | 2.85% |
| Payout ratioi | 52.51% | 31.40% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| Debt/equityi | 15.92 | 25.89 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 1.85 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 1.58 |
Over the past year, XOM and EOG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.76), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XOM | EOG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +38.93% | +19.65% |
| CAGRi | +39.00% | +19.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.04% | 28.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.23 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.80 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 14.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 8.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.26% | 6.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.51% | 7.66% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.23% | 6.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.01% | 9.38% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +210.71% | +108.23% |
| CAGRi | +25.48% | +15.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.56% | 32.38% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.82 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.18 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 33.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 8.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.23% | 11.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.86% | 13.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.89% | 10.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.35% | 21.39% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +186.75% | +108.13% |
| CAGRi | +11.11% | +7.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.39% | 39.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.01% | 77.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 8.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.11% | 21.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.16% | 28.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.22% | 32.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.80% | 47.47% |
| Category | XOM | EOG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Exxon Mobil Corporation | EOG Resources, Inc. |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | Largest US integrated energy company, with upstream growth from offshore Guyana and the Permian Basin plus substantial refining, fuels, and chemicals operations and low-carbon ventures. | Large independent shale producer with core positions in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, and emerging plays including the Utica, plus international gas operations. Operates under a premium drilling standard requiring high returns before committing capital. |
| Investor focus | Guyana and Permian production, refining and chemicals margins, cost reduction, free cash flow, dividends, and buybacks. | Well productivity and drilling returns, capital discipline against its premium hurdle, reserve additions from new plays, balance sheet cash, and special dividends. |
- Guyana provides a rare large-scale, low-cost growth engine
- Integration across products and chemicals diversifies earnings
- Financial strength and an uninterrupted dividend history
- Premium drilling standard enforces returns discipline rather than growth for its own sake
- Exceptionally strong balance sheet, often holding cash in excess of debt
- Track record of identifying and developing new plays organically rather than paying up for acquisitions
- Chemicals oversupply has pressured that segment's margins
- Multi-year project timelines create execution and cost risk
- Scale dampens the impact of individual successes
- Pure upstream exposure means earnings follow commodity prices directly
- Shale well productivity declines require continuous drilling to sustain output
- Special dividends vary with cash flow, so total shareholder return is less predictable
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