XOM vs NFG Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare ExxonMobil's massive global scale against National Fuel Gas's smaller, regionally focused natural gas utility, pipeline, and production business.
Use this ExxonMobil vs National Fuel Gas comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
NFG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XOM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+59.34% vs -1.10%), though NFG has the better forward P/E setup (10.81x vs 14.72x for XOM). On fundamentals, XOM is growing revenue faster (44.10%), while NFG maintains the higher operating margin (40.07%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NFG (+15.48%) than for XOM (+8.28%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | XOM | NFG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 59.0 | 38.3 |
| AI ranki | #268 | #1339 |
| Latest closei | $183.29 | $79.36 |
| 1M returni | +13.60% | +2.88% |
| 3M returni | +16.77% | -3.77% |
| 6M returni | +18.76% | -5.95% |
| 1Y returni | +59.34% | -1.10% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XOM | NFG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.74K (+57.4%) started 2025-10-29 | $10.05K (+0.5%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $37.11K (+271.1%) started 2021-11-01 | $13.82K (+38.2%) started 2021-10-29 |
| 10Y ago | $52.73K (+427.3%) started 2016-10-31 | $15.15K (+51.5%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XOM | NFG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $644.38B | $7.65B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.17 | 11.22 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.72 | 10.81 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.32 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.89 | 3.97 |
| Analyst targeti | $169.68 | $93.00 |
| Target upsidei | +8.28% | +15.48% |
| Metric | XOM | NFG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 44.10% | 1.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 112.80% | -11.60% |
| EPS growthi | +112.80% | -11.60% |
| FCF margini | +5.73% | -0.99% |
| Operating margini | 15.86% | 40.07% |
| Profit margini | 9.07% | 26.86% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.58% | 19.58% |
| Return on equityi | 12.58% | 19.58% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.63% | 2.76% |
| Payout ratioi | 52.51% | 30.08% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 15.92 | 90.92 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 3.20 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 2.94 |
Over the past year, XOM and NFG have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XOM | NFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +57.40% | +0.46% |
| CAGRi | +57.50% | +0.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.17% | 19.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.70 | -0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.53 | -0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 21.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.68% | 17.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.14% | 9.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.48% | 12.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.23% | 4.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.01% | 8.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +220.42% | +38.19% |
| CAGRi | +26.27% | +6.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.51% | 22.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.85 | 0.20 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.21 | 0.29 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 39.45% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.68% | 17.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.26% | 15.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.87% | 19.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.89% | 7.32% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.35% | 11.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +226.27% | +51.51% |
| CAGRi | +12.56% | +4.25% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.41% | 23.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.58 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.01% | 45.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.68% | 17.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.10% | 15.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.16% | 19.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.22% | 15.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.80% | 14.82% |
| Category | XOM | NFG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | XOM | NFG |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. | National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. |
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Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
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