XOM vs OXY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
XOM and OXY offer very different risk profiles within US energy. Exxon is enormous, integrated, financially conservative, and anchored by exceptional Guyana assets. Occidental is a leveraged Permian-weighted producer with a valuable chemicals business, a heavier debt load from acquisitions, and an ambitious carbon capture programme whose economics remain unproven.
Use this XOM vs OXY comparison to think about balance sheets in a cyclical industry. Exxon's financial strength lets it invest and pay dividends through downturns. Occidental's debt means more upside per dollar of oil price increase and considerably less resilience if prices fall and stay down.
XOM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XOM leads on both 1-year return (+40.18%) and forward P/E quality (14.72x vs 15.41x for OXY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. OXY leads on both revenue growth (53.40%) and operating margin (45.44%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OXY (+13.07%) than for XOM (+8.28%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want scale, integration, and financial strength in energy
- Value Guyana as one of the industry's best development projects
- Prefer an uninterrupted long-term dividend record
- Accept weak chemicals margins and slow-moving consolidated results
- Want concentrated leverage to Permian oil production and prices
- Value OxyChem as an earnings stream uncorrelated with crude
- Believe debt reduction will progressively transfer value to common shareholders
- Accept higher financial leverage and uncertain carbon capture returns
| Metric | XOM | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.6 | 43.9 |
| AI ranki | #343 | #771 |
| Latest closei | $160.59 | $56.86 |
| 1M returni | +1.52% | -3.00% |
| 6M returni | -6.08% | -12.95% |
| 1Y returni | +40.18% | +21.26% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XOM | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.89K (+38.9%) started 2025-09-25 | $12.1K (+21.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $35.99K (+259.9%) started 2021-09-27 | $20.49K (+104.9%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $46.35K (+363.5%) started 2016-09-26 | $14.2K (+42.0%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XOM | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $644.38B | $59.08B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.17 | 17.43 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.72 | 15.41 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.89 | 3.28 |
| Analyst targeti | $169.68 | $66.83 |
| Target upsidei | +8.28% | +13.07% |
| Metric | XOM | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 44.10% | 53.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 112.80% | 964.90% |
| EPS growthi | +112.80% | +964.90% |
| FCF margini | +5.73% | +15.83% |
| Operating margini | 15.86% | 45.44% |
| Profit margini | 9.07% | 30.32% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.58% | 10.63% |
| Return on equityi | 12.58% | 10.63% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.63% | 1.89% |
| Payout ratioi | 52.51% | 29.50% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Debt/equityi | 15.92 | 34.51 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 1.04 |
Over the past year, XOM and OXY have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.73), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XOM | OXY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +38.93% | +21.00% |
| CAGRi | +39.00% | +21.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.04% | 35.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.23 | 0.59 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.80 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 27.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 14.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.26% | 11.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.51% | 12.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.23% | 7.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.01% | 12.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +210.71% | +96.35% |
| CAGRi | +25.48% | +14.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.56% | 37.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.82 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.18 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 50.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 22.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.23% | 21.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.86% | 25.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.89% | 11.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.35% | 26.59% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +186.75% | +4.48% |
| CAGRi | +11.11% | +0.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.39% | 49.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.01% | 88.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.35% | 22.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.11% | 31.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.16% | 39.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.22% | 52.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.80% | 63.08% |
| Category | XOM | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Occidental Petroleum Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | Largest US integrated energy company, with upstream operations centred on offshore Guyana and the Permian Basin, plus major refining, fuels, and chemicals businesses and a low-carbon ventures arm. | Oil and gas producer heavily weighted to the Permian Basin, with additional Gulf of Mexico and international operations, a chemicals business in OxyChem, and a direct air capture carbon removal venture. |
| Investor focus | Guyana and Permian production growth, refining and chemicals margins, structural cost reductions, free cash flow, dividends, and buybacks. | Permian production and well productivity, debt reduction progress, OxyChem earnings, carbon capture spending and its commercial viability, and preferred share redemption. |
- Guyana offshore development is among the best large-scale oil projects in the industry by cost and returns
- Scale across upstream, products, and chemicals provides multiple earnings streams
- Very strong balance sheet with a long uninterrupted dividend record
- Concentrated high-quality Permian acreage gives strong leverage to oil prices
- OxyChem provides earnings largely uncorrelated with crude prices
- Enhanced oil recovery expertise gives it a genuine technical basis for carbon capture work
- Chemicals margins have been weak amid global capacity additions
- Large capital projects carry long timelines and execution risk
- Sheer size means individual successes move consolidated results slowly
- Carries substantially more debt than the majors following large acquisitions
- Preferred shares issued to fund an acquisition consume cash before common shareholders benefit
- Direct air capture is capital intensive with an unproven commercial return
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on XOM and OXY. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside XOM and OXY, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.