CMG vs SG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CMG and SG are both fast-casual chains, but only one has proven the model at scale. Chipotle operates with high average unit volumes, strong restaurant-level margins, and a long opening runway, and trades at a premium accordingly. Sweetgreen has an appealing brand and a differentiated position in health-focused dining but has not yet demonstrated consistent company-level profitability, and its urban concentration adds sensitivity Chipotle does not have.
Use this CMG vs SG comparison to focus on restaurant-level economics rather than brand appeal. What determines the long-run outcome is average volume per restaurant, restaurant-level margin, and the return on capital for each new opening. Chipotle's numbers on all three are proven; Sweetgreen's are still being established.
CMG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+0.86% vs -20.78%), though CMG has the better forward P/E setup (27.78x vs -9.63x for SG). CMG leads on both revenue growth (9.30%) and operating margin (16.11%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMG (+14.84%) than for SG (-1.19%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a proven fast-casual operator with best-in-class unit economics
- Value a company-owned model that captures the full restaurant profit
- Believe unit growth and international expansion have years to run
- Accept a premium valuation and sensitivity to comparable sales misses
- Want exposure to a smaller, earlier-stage fast-casual brand
- Believe automated kitchen formats will improve margins meaningfully
- Accept that the company is not yet consistently profitable
- Are comfortable with urban concentration and higher volatility
| Metric | CMG | SG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.2 | 21.9 |
| AI ranki | #420 | #4399 |
| Latest closei | $31.33 | $8.24 |
| 1M returni | -16.10% | +20.29% |
| 6M returni | +1.52% | +75.32% |
| 1Y returni | -20.78% | +0.86% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | SG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.97K (-20.3%) started 2025-09-25 | $10.09K (+0.9%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $8.25K (-17.5%) started 2021-09-27 | $1.66K (-83.4%) started 2021-11-18 |
| 10Y ago | $37.31K (+273.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $1.66K (-83.4%) started 2021-11-18 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | SG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $801.15M |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 74.78 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | -9.63 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 1.44 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $6.65 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | -1.19% |
| Metric | CMG | SG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 3.80% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | -9.07% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | -12.59% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 2.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | 3.07% |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | 3.07% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.94 | 2.20 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | 76.00 |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 1.43 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 1.30 |
Over the past year, CMG and SG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.51), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | SG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -20.34% | +0.86% |
| CAGRi | -20.37% | +0.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.34% | 75.27% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.43 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.56 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.47% | 47.21% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.04% | 19.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.66% | 22.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.50% | 25.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 14.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 27.82% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -17.53% | -83.35% |
| CAGRi | -3.79% | -30.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.89% | 79.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.06 | -0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.09 | -0.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 91.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.30% | 84.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.94% | 67.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.45% | 70.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 23.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 38.03% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +273.08% | -83.35% |
| CAGRi | +14.08% | -30.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.21% | 79.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | -0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | -0.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 91.13% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.30% | 84.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.75% | 67.73% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.01% | 70.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 23.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 38.03% |
| Category | CMG | SG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Sweetgreen, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Fast-casual Mexican restaurant chain operating company-owned locations with no franchising in its core market. Growth comes from new restaurant openings, digital and delivery orders, throughput improvements, and menu pricing. | Fast-casual chain centred on salads and warm bowls, operating company-owned locations concentrated in urban markets, with automated kitchen formats intended to improve throughput and labour efficiency. |
| Investor focus | Comparable restaurant sales and transaction growth, restaurant-level margin, new unit opening pace and returns, and food and labour cost inflation. | Comparable sales trends, path to consistent profitability, restaurant-level margin at newer stores, automated format results, and unit opening pace. |
- Industry-leading unit economics with high average volumes per restaurant and strong restaurant-level margins
- Company-owned model captures all of the profit and keeps operational control tight
- Substantial remaining unit growth runway in North America plus early international expansion
- Differentiated brand in health-oriented fast casual with strong appeal in dense urban markets
- Automated kitchen formats could improve throughput and labour cost per order
- Small store count relative to the addressable market leaves a long theoretical runway
- Premium valuation leaves little tolerance for a weak comparable sales quarter
- Food safety incidents have historically damaged traffic severely and remain a tail risk
- Consumer trade-down in a weaker economy pressures traffic at higher price points
- Not consistently profitable at the company level, so growth is funded rather than self-sustaining
- Urban and office-adjacent concentration makes it sensitive to commuting patterns
- Salad-led menus have historically shown more weather and seasonal sensitivity
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