CVX vs COP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CVX and COP are both large US oil and gas companies with different structures. Chevron is integrated, so refining and chemicals partly offset weak crude prices and it maintains one of the sector's most reliable dividends. ConocoPhillips is a pure producer, giving cleaner exposure to commodity prices, a very low cost of supply, and a capital return framework that flexes with cash flow.
Use this CVX vs COP comparison to decide how much commodity leverage you want. Integration is a hedge: it dampens both the pain of low crude prices and the benefit of high ones. ConocoPhillips gives you the commodity more directly, which is an advantage when prices rise and a liability when they do not.
COP holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. COP leads on both 1-year return (+33.12%) and forward P/E quality (13.68x vs 15.25x for CVX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CVX is growing revenue faster (53.50%), while COP maintains the higher operating margin (31.51%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COP (+11.49%) than for CVX (+8.14%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want integrated exposure with refining and chemicals as a cyclical buffer
- Value a long, well-defended dividend growth record
- Prefer a very strong balance sheet through the cycle
- Accept slower production growth and international project risk
- Want cleaner upstream leverage to oil and gas prices
- Value a low cost of supply and deep drilling inventory
- Like flexible capital return through variable distributions and buybacks
- Accept greater earnings sensitivity without downstream offset
| Metric | CVX | COP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.6 | 56.3 |
| AI ranki | #341 | #213 |
| Latest closei | $204.45 | $127.30 |
| 1M returni | +2.12% | -2.53% |
| 6M returni | -3.17% | -4.86% |
| 1Y returni | +28.44% | +33.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CVX | COP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.72K (+27.2%) started 2025-09-25 | $13.15K (+31.5%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $27.14K (+171.4%) started 2021-09-27 | $25.35K (+153.5%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $46.98K (+369.8%) started 2016-09-26 | $56.71K (+467.1%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CVX | COP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $395.97B | $156.59B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.41 | 17.24 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.25 | 13.68 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.24 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.06 | 2.67 |
| Analyst targeti | $218.29 | $145.33 |
| Target upsidei | +8.14% | +11.49% |
| Metric | CVX | COP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 53.50% | 35.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 321.90% | 107.00% |
| EPS growthi | +321.90% | +107.00% |
| FCF margini | +10.48% | +11.93% |
| Operating margini | 21.87% | 31.51% |
| Profit margini | 9.83% | 14.40% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.23% | 14.18% |
| Return on equityi | 12.23% | 14.18% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.56% | 2.58% |
| Payout ratioi | 67.18% | 43.65% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.49 | 0.12 |
| Debt/equityi | 18.96 | 35.64 |
| Current ratioi | 1.25 | 1.54 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.84 | 1.18 |
Over the past year, CVX and COP have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.82), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CVX | COP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +27.21% | +31.49% |
| CAGRi | +27.25% | +31.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.86% | 30.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.94 | 0.90 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.36 | 1.29 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.53% | 22.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 9.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.25% | 7.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.16% | 9.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.59% | 6.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.53% | 11.29% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +130.86% | +119.08% |
| CAGRi | +18.23% | +17.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.18% | 32.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.62 | 0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.86 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.95% | 36.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 9.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.03% | 14.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.75% | 17.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.22% | 10.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.74% | 21.57% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +200.26% | +316.67% |
| CAGRi | +11.63% | +15.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.32% | 37.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.52 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.77% | 70.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 9.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.57% | 17.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.54% | 22.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.12% | 24.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.70% | 40.88% |
| Category | CVX | COP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chevron Corporation | ConocoPhillips |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | Integrated energy company producing oil and gas worldwide, with major positions in the Permian Basin, Kazakhstan, and the Gulf of Mexico, alongside refining, chemicals, and marketing operations. Expanded its offshore Guyana exposure through the Hess acquisition. | Largest independent exploration and production company, with a diversified portfolio across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Alaska, and international assets, plus growing liquefied natural gas ambitions. It does not operate a large refining business. |
| Investor focus | Permian production growth and capital efficiency, Kazakhstan project performance, Guyana contribution, refining margins, free cash flow, and dividend growth. | Cost of supply across the portfolio, production growth, Alaska and LNG project progress, free cash flow, and the combination of base dividend, variable return, and buybacks. |
- Integration across upstream, refining, and chemicals smooths earnings when crude prices fall
- One of the strongest balance sheets among the majors, supporting dividends through downturns
- Long record of annual dividend increases maintained across multiple oil cycles
- Low cost of supply across a deep inventory, so projects remain economic at modest oil prices
- No refining exposure means cleaner leverage to oil and gas prices
- Returns cash through a base dividend plus variable distributions and substantial buybacks
- Refining and chemicals margins are cyclical and can be weak even when crude is strong
- Large international projects carry political, partner, and execution risk
- Capital discipline limits production growth relative to smaller producers
- Without refining, earnings fall more directly when commodity prices decline
- Large projects in Alaska and LNG require years of capital before contributing
- Fully exposed to commodity price cycles with no downstream offset
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