ITW vs GGG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ITW (Illinois Tool Works) and GGG (Graco) are both highly disciplined industrial companies renowned for operating excellence and dividend growth — ITW as the classic 80/20 diversified industrial conglomerate across seven segments, versus Graco's focused fluid handling equipment business. Both are Dividend Aristocrats with decades of consecutive dividend increases and premium operating margins.
ITW vs GGG is diversified industrial 80/20 conglomerate (Illinois Tool Works' systematic simplification across 80+ business units) versus focused fluid handling equipment leader (Graco's precision pumps and dispensers for industrial and contractor applications) — two of the most respected quality compounders in the industrial sector.
GGG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ITW has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+9.93% vs -0.30%), though GGG has the better forward P/E setup (22.00x vs 22.60x for ITW). On fundamentals, ITW is growing revenue faster (6.10%), while GGG maintains the higher operating margin (29.73%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GGG (+18.31%) than for ITW (+7.77%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a diversified industrial Dividend Aristocrat with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases and 80/20 simplification driving consistent margin improvement
- Value ITW's multi-segment diversification across automotive, food equipment, welding, construction, and specialty products as resilience through economic cycles
- Prefer the large-cap, highly liquid Dividend Aristocrat status as a foundational industrial holding rather than a focused sector play
- Want a focused fluid handling equipment leader with market-leading positions in industrial pumps and dispensers and consistent innovation driving organic growth
- Value Graco's application breadth across industrial, contractor, and process end markets as diversification within a specialized, defensible niche
- See Graco's premium operating margins and consistent new product development as indicators of a durable competitive moat in fluid handling technology
| Metric | ITW | GGG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.1 | 46.3 |
| AI ranki | #426 | #664 |
| Latest closei | $272.28 | $81.99 |
| 1M returni | +1.85% | +7.49% |
| 3M returni | -1.37% | +9.92% |
| 6M returni | +0.01% | -5.48% |
| 1Y returni | +9.93% | -0.30% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ITW | GGG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.03K (+10.3%) started 2025-10-16 | $10.05K (+0.5%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $14.49K (+44.9%) started 2021-10-18 | $11.43K (+14.3%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $35.66K (+256.6%) started 2016-10-17 | $34.2K (+242.0%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ITW | GGG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $79.77B | $12.5B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.37 | 24.26 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.60 | 22.00 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.38 | 5.29 |
| Analyst targeti | $301.86 | $91.29 |
| Target upsidei | +7.77% | +18.31% |
| Metric | ITW | GGG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.10% | 3.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 10.10% | 14.50% |
| EPS growthi | +10.10% | +14.50% |
| FCF margini | +14.77% | +23.67% |
| Operating margini | 26.90% | 29.73% |
| Profit margini | 19.39% | 23.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 104.62% | 21.24% |
| Return on equityi | 104.62% | 21.24% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.46% | 1.54% |
| Payout ratioi | 58.39% | 35.85% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Debt/equityi | 334.85 | 2.07 |
| Current ratioi | 1.11 | 2.99 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.74 | 2.03 |
Over the past year, ITW and GGG have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.70), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ITW | GGG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +10.26% | +0.51% |
| CAGRi | +10.28% | +0.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.83% | 20.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | -0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | -0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.95% | 22.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.12% | 13.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.52% | 10.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.08% | 13.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.54% | 3.94% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.71% | 7.93% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +33.15% | +14.34% |
| CAGRi | +5.90% | +2.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.40% | 22.92% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.17 | 0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.24 | 0.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 28.05% | 29.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.12% | 13.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.55% | 11.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.34% | 13.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.79% | 7.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.18% | 12.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +186.32% | +242.00% |
| CAGRi | +11.10% | +13.09% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.92% | 24.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.85% | 30.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.12% | 13.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.52% | 8.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.03% | 11.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.51% | 10.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.86% | 15.31% |
| Category | ITW | GGG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | Graco Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Specialty Industrial Machinery | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| Core business | Illinois Tool Works is a global diversified manufacturer of industrial products and equipment across seven segments: Automotive OEM, Food Equipment, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Welding, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products, and Specialty Products — operating over 80 business units globally with a rigorous 80/20 simplification methodology. | Graco is a world-leading manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and dispensing systems for precise movement of viscous, abrasive, or toxic fluids in industrial, contractor, and process markets across industrial finishing, construction, and manufacturing applications. |
| Investor focus | Investors track ITW's organic revenue growth by segment, operating margin progression (consistently targeting 30%+ enterprise operating margin), EPS growth through margin improvement and buybacks, and the dividend growth track record (over 50 consecutive years of annual dividend increases). | Investors track Graco's organic revenue growth by end market (Industrial, Contractor, Process), new product introduction cadence, operating margins, and the company's consistent long-term dividend growth record. |
- 80/20 business simplification — ITW's proprietary methodology focuses each business unit on its top 20% of customers and products that generate 80% of revenue, eliminating complexity and improving margins dramatically
- Decentralized operating model with 80+ business units allows entrepreneurial focus while enterprise scale provides purchasing power and shared best practices
- Dividend Aristocrat with 50+ consecutive annual dividend increases — ITW is a classic compounding income investment for long-term dividend growth investors
- Market leadership in fluid handling equipment — Graco's products are specified by users for critical fluid applications where reliability and precision are essential, creating high switching costs
- Breadth of applications from automotive paint spraying to oil and gas fluid transfer creates a diversified end market base less tied to any single industry
- Consistent new product innovation — Graco regularly introduces new pump and dispenser technologies that expand addressable markets and drive replacement cycles
- Automotive OEM segment is tied to global auto production schedules — disruptions (semiconductor shortages, EV transition) affect ITW's largest segment
- Organic revenue growth at ITW can be modest — the 80/20 strategy improves margins but deliberately eliminates lower-margin revenue that could otherwise contribute to growth
- As a diversified industrial, ITW's performance across seven segments means economic downturns in manufacturing broadly affect revenue across multiple businesses simultaneously
- Graco's Contractor segment (airless paint sprayers for professional painters) is sensitive to residential and commercial construction activity cycles
- Industrial and Process segments are sensitive to manufacturing capex and oil/gas investment cycles — slowdowns in these end markets reduce equipment orders
- Graco is a premium-priced industrial equipment company — economic downturns create pressure from customers substituting lower-cost competitive alternatives temporarily
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